What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old? • Hacker News Board

Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?

#11

Post by toomuchtodo » Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:08 AM UTC

jgsser wrote: post #10

wrp wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They won't close. They will just rely more heavily on foreign students. The primary focus of academia is to remain employed, not to serve the needs of the domestic student population.

There are people who will read this, agree with this, and still not realise how absolutely fucked everything is.

I can believe that higher education is vital to an educated, critical thinking electorate (as well as developing well rounded citizens) while also believing that the current US college system is highly dysfunctional, trapping people in non dischargeable student loan debt for little lifetime wage premium or increased employment opportunity. I fully support community colleges, for example, as efficient education infrastructure. I have no degree credential, I am a high school dropout, but have used community colleges to learn (welding and fabrication skills) and was offered a job right after receiving certifications for those blue collar classes.

“The purpose of a system is what it does.” The current system sucks, and improvement is needed.

Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?

#12

Post by fred_is_fred » Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:08 AM UTC

If colleges that don't produce economic return for their students close that's bad for the town, but overall good for the students and the US as a whole.

Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?

#13

Post by nradov » Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:09 AM UTC

wrp wrote: post #3

toomuchtodo wrote: post #2

> But here’s the most telling data point from the school’s National Student Clearinghouse data: Over 60% of WKU-admitted applicants who don’t attend WKY don’t enroll anywhere. Not at a competitor, not at a community college — nowhere. Colleges are still competing with one another, but increasingly, they’re competing with the labor market itself. Labor shortages are leading to college credentials not being needed. Thi…

They won't close. They will just rely more heavily on foreign students. The primary focus of academia is to remain employed, not to serve the needs of the domestic student population.

Third-tier private colleges are already shutting down. In the past few years some examples include Holy Names University, Iowa Wesleyan University, Marymount California University, San Francisco Art Institute, Wells College, and the list goes on. Colleges with minimal name recognition have no ability to attract foreign students.

Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?

#14

Post by stouset » Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:11 AM UTC

readthenotes1 wrote: post #9

jeremyjh wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any profession where they aren't focused on staying employed?

You mean, is there any state funded system in which the primary drive of the system is to elrotect and expand itself, even at the expense of providing the good ir service for which it was created? History says no...

You can literally just strike the words “state funded” from your sentence. If you don’t think companies function exactly this way, I’m not sure what to tell you.

And in a world where every competitor in a given market is owned by one of two or three megaconglomerates, “voting with your feet” stopped mattering long ago.

Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?

#15

Post by jgsser » Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:12 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #11

jgsser wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are people who will read this, agree with this, and still not realise how absolutely fucked everything is.

I can believe that higher education is vital to an educated, critical thinking electorate (as well as developing well rounded citizens) while also believing that the current US college system is highly dysfunctional, trapping people in non dischargeable student loan debt for little lifetime wage premium or increased employment opportunity. I fully support community colleges, for example, as efficient education infras…

[flagged]

Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?

#16

Post by someothherguyy » Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:14 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #2

> But here’s the most telling data point from the school’s National Student Clearinghouse data: Over 60% of WKU-admitted applicants who don’t attend WKY don’t enroll anywhere. Not at a competitor, not at a community college — nowhere. Colleges are still competing with one another, but increasingly, they’re competing with the labor market itself. Labor shortages are leading to college credentials not being needed. Thi…

i think that is a good goal, as long as during primary and secondary education, schools pick up the deficit one would miss not attending tertiary program, which, at the moment they are not even close to, with forced route memorization, dogmatic learning style, and so much more that many people lament having been forced though only to discover better ways of learning at the tertiary level.

i don't think anyone cares anymore though. its just win and grin.

Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?

#17

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:23 AM UTC

jgsser wrote: post #15

toomuchtodo wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can believe that higher education is vital to an educated, critical thinking electorate (as well as developing well rounded citizens) while also believing that the current US college system is highly dysfunctional, trapping people in non dischargeable student loan debt for little lifetime wage premium or increased employment opportunity. I fully support community colleges, for example, as efficient education infras…

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?

#18

Post by terminalshort » Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:23 AM UTC

renewiltord wrote: post #7

Universities are responding by increasing the range of people they admit. If you consider universities farmers growing a crop of students that the government pays for, you'll see things play out like this. You think to yourself "why would they admit people with really low scores and then inflate grades? That doesn't seem like educating people" but the answer is that they're responding to a crop with shrinking yield b…

Classic case of short term vs long term incentives. Dumbing down the schools results in both an increase in enrollment due to the increase in eligible candidates and a decrease in enrollment due to decreasing the value of the credential. But the former is instant, and the latter takes a long time to develop as it takes quite a while for the reputation to catch up with reality on the ground.

So the university system has spent the last several decades basically consuming its most valuable asset (exclusivity) for short term growth. And it worked. For a while, at least. But now the long term effects are catching up with them and it has become apparent that the strategy is actually a doom loop:

lower standards to raise enrollment -> reduce value of credential -> less students enroll -> lower standards to raise enrollment

Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?

#19

Post by terminalshort » Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:26 AM UTC

wrp wrote: post #3

toomuchtodo wrote: post #2

> But here’s the most telling data point from the school’s National Student Clearinghouse data: Over 60% of WKU-admitted applicants who don’t attend WKY don’t enroll anywhere. Not at a competitor, not at a community college — nowhere. Colleges are still competing with one another, but increasingly, they’re competing with the labor market itself. Labor shortages are leading to college credentials not being needed. Thi…

They won't close. They will just rely more heavily on foreign students. The primary focus of academia is to remain employed, not to serve the needs of the domestic student population.

This only works for exclusive, high prestige schools. Not many rich foreigners are going to pay full freight to send their kids to Western Kentucky University.

Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?

#20

Post by bruce511 » Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:30 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #2

> But here’s the most telling data point from the school’s National Student Clearinghouse data: Over 60% of WKU-admitted applicants who don’t attend WKY don’t enroll anywhere. Not at a competitor, not at a community college — nowhere. Colleges are still competing with one another, but increasingly, they’re competing with the labor market itself. Labor shortages are leading to college credentials not being needed. Thi…

It's easy to point at any one thing and make that the cause. More likely though it's a combination of things all working together.

Yes, the labor market is changing. As the economy changes from industrial to services, so demands for some jobs go up, others go down. The emphasis on automation (AI being just another card in that deck) means that more is produced, while employing ever fewer people.

100 years ago agriculture consumed 27% of the work force. Today its 1%, while at the same time production is much higher.

The explosion of student debt, the access to knowledge online (outside of a college course), the declining birth rate, the current hostility to foreign students, the poor image of the US abroad, all contribute though. Each factor is small in isolation, but together they're moving the needle.

The saturation of the professional class also plays a role. Do we need to churn out several thousand new architects every year? Especially into a society that sees the concept of architecture as irrelevant?

Yes, colleges will close. The demand caused by the boomers will go away. But that's part of a much bigger shift in US society.