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Social Networks Implode Quickly

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Re: Social Networks Implode Quickly

#11

Post by agilord »

upinsmoke wrote: post #8
Avalaxy wrote: post #6

I don't think Facebook will die, for two good reasons: 1) there are many more people on facebook than networks like myspace ever had. This makes a transition much, much harder. 2) facebook is not only used for facebook, but for many third-party apps as well. People will keep their facebook accounts so that they can log in to external services.

Facebook is similar to people who still use hotmail. There are much better ones now, but they still keep the old hotmail account.

e-mail account is different, as it gives you an address that others will use exclusively to communicate with you. On the other hand, Facebook friends will use your name and the search field to look up for you, unique address is not that critical in such infrastructure.

Re: Social Networks Implode Quickly

#12

Post by agilord »

lrem wrote: post #5

One lesson from reading this text is: if your site has googleable content, it will not decay as fast as if you rely on (semi-)active following. Seems quite obvious when stated this way.

yes, although I'd include an AND condition, like "If your site has googleable content AND you engage your users in a meaningful way..."

Re: Social Networks Implode Quickly

#13

Post by agilord »

autotravis wrote: post #4

"TL;DR: Big social networks need to take advantage of the spotlight, and solidify their position to rely less on network effects. Otherwise, they are extremely risky investments." Very good point.

"Social networks are extremely risky investments, no matter what." ?

Re: Social Networks Implode Quickly

#14

Post by _suoiruc »

I think MS will acquire FB.

The FB social network will die, in time, but it's still the world's largest email address list, plus all sorts of personal information that can be used to insidiously coax consumers.

Every FB user should gather up all the email addys of their friends and keep them in a safe place offline. This way you never lose contact.

FB allowed people to submit their email addresses to a central website and thereby connect/reconnect with friends, colleagues and so forth. This sharing of email addresses is not a new thing, but with FB it occurred on an unprecendented scale. Billions of email addresses (that work!). That is FB's contribution. Gather those email addresses and keep them offline. Soon you may be able to form your own social networks that are private, secure and more functional than FB. But you will need the email addresses of your friends to get it started. Don't believe that FB should be the safe keeper of your email address book. They will do what they have to in order to survive as their business winds down. Those email addresses are its most valuable asset.

Re: Social Networks Implode Quickly

#15

Post by drp4929 »

Growing a company is one aspect while sustaining a company is another. Social Networks naturally take advantage of network effect while growing. It is not easy to sustain the company if perceived value provided by the company erodes quickly from its core customers' point of view. Whenever a company collapses usually it is because customers do not want its products for whatever reason.

Re: Social Networks Implode Quickly

#16

Post by drcube »

moocow01 wrote: post #9
Avalaxy wrote: post #6

I don't think Facebook will die, for two good reasons: 1) there are many more people on facebook than networks like myspace ever had. This makes a transition much, much harder. 2) facebook is not only used for facebook, but for many third-party apps as well. People will keep their facebook accounts so that they can log in to external services.

In regard to 1 you may want to think of it in terms of percentage of internet users who are on Facebook rather than sheer numbers. My guess would be that Friendster, Myspace, and Facebook may have had similar percentages in their prime and as a result Facebook may be just as fragile. The key driver seems to always be user frustration. Friendster was slow, MySpace had UX issues - for the masses (non-techies) is there…

>is there something about Facebook that frustrates average Joe?

Feed spam.

Re: Social Networks Implode Quickly

#17

Post by Livven »

upinsmoke wrote: post #8
Avalaxy wrote: post #6

I don't think Facebook will die, for two good reasons: 1) there are many more people on facebook than networks like myspace ever had. This makes a transition much, much harder. 2) facebook is not only used for facebook, but for many third-party apps as well. People will keep their facebook accounts so that they can log in to external services.

Facebook is similar to people who still use hotmail. There are much better ones now, but they still keep the old hotmail account.

Only that Hotmail has been much improved recently and even got a completely new design with Outlook.com. Also, care to elaborate on what "much better ones" there are? I barely use Facebook while Twitter is essential for me, but I don't see a better social network for most people than Facebook.

Re: Social Networks Implode Quickly

#18

Post by smokinjoe »

_suoiruc wrote: post #14

I think MS will acquire FB. The FB social network will die, in time, but it's still the world's largest email address list, plus all sorts of personal information that can be used to insidiously coax consumers. Every FB user should gather up all the email addys of their friends and keep them in a safe place offline. This way you never lose contact. FB allowed people to submit their email addresses to a central websit…

I'm not making the MS connection - are you saying that Facebook will be eventually required solely for its email addresses?

Re: Social Networks Implode Quickly

#19

Post by tokenadult »

There are various historical examples of various online networks. The one I began with in 1992 was the Prodigy commercial online network (which I had actually tried out as early as 1989). My paradigmatic example of an online network that faded away is AOL, which is still in business. My prediction about Facebook, posted previously here on HN, is "Facebook will go the way of AOL, still being a factor in the industry years from now, but also serving as an example of a company that could never monetize up to the level of the hype surrounding it." I could be wrong, but that's my sense of where Facebook is in the market.

Re: Social Networks Implode Quickly

#20

Post by _suoiruc »

smokinjoe wrote: post #18
_suoiruc wrote: post #14

I think MS will acquire FB. The FB social network will die, in time, but it's still the world's largest email address list, plus all sorts of personal information that can be used to insidiously coax consumers. Every FB user should gather up all the email addys of their friends and keep them in a safe place offline. This way you never lose contact. FB allowed people to submit their email addresses to a central websit…

I'm not making the MS connection - are you saying that Facebook will be eventually required solely for its email addresses?

No connection. Two separate points: 1. A prediction that FB will be acquired 2. A suggestion about the importance of email addresses, both for you, the FB user, and for FB.

Hypothetical: You need to contact one or more of your FB friends. The only contact info you have for them is what they submitted to FB. But you never copied their email address from FB to your computer, phone, etc. FB "implodes". Or maybe you just want to switch to another social network and you want to let your friends know about it, but for some reason you cannot do it via FB.

Email is how things gets boostrapped. This is why there was a battle using dirty tactics between Google/Gmail and Facebook early on over snarfing people's email address books.

Your email address is valuable. Valuable to you. And to FB. And to any company that might acquire FB. My suggestion is make sure you have your own copy (e.g. saved on a USB stick, SD card, HDD, or even printed out on a sheet of paper) that is not controlled by some web startup.

My guess would be a lot of FB users don't. If FB implodes, they could lose contact with certain people.

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