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Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

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Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#11

Post by raffraffraff »

rozap wrote: post #9
octaane wrote: post #6

I cannot overemphasize how epochal of a crisis this would be for human civilization - the gulf stream is pretty much the only thing keeping northern europe (The UK, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, parts of germany, the Netherlands, etc) habitable by current standards. Basically, the gulf stream is a conveyor belt that grabs nice warm water from southern latitudes (carribean, southeast atlantic oce…

And presumably there's another side of it too? Like all that hot air would have to be somewhere else if not Western Europe. That somewhere else would also have a bad time, just in the opposite direction. Very bleak.

Yep. It's like the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer... Except with heat.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#12

Post by devin »

raptor99 wrote: post #4

This seems quite appropriate in relation to these predictions: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20161026-how-liars-create...

It's not difficult to imagine an article titled "How liars create the 'illusion of falsity'" which involves people repeatedly posting this article in response to truths they find inconvenient or otherwise disagreeable.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#13

Post by WinstonSmith84 »

Okay that's maybe dramatic, but on another hand, that would be quite fascinating to experience. Maybe, for those of us living long enough, we are going to witness a net migration not from Africa to Europe, but from Europe to elsewhere, anywhere. There is enough place on Earth for humans to resettle and it's likely that other places will become more hospitable, while other places will become less, as the climate shifts. Maybe the middle east will become just warm and hot, instead of extremely hot as it's currently - and maybe even, they will be done with tribal wars, who knows!

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#14

Post by Eddy_Viscosity2 »

octaane wrote: post #6

I cannot overemphasize how epochal of a crisis this would be for human civilization - the gulf stream is pretty much the only thing keeping northern europe (The UK, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, parts of germany, the Netherlands, etc) habitable by current standards. Basically, the gulf stream is a conveyor belt that grabs nice warm water from southern latitudes (carribean, southeast atlantic oce…

Maybe the cooling from lack of gulf stream air will perfectly counter-act the increase in heat of global warming and result in net zero effect?

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#15

Post by hatthew »

octaane wrote: post #6

I cannot overemphasize how epochal of a crisis this would be for human civilization - the gulf stream is pretty much the only thing keeping northern europe (The UK, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, parts of germany, the Netherlands, etc) habitable by current standards. Basically, the gulf stream is a conveyor belt that grabs nice warm water from southern latitudes (carribean, southeast atlantic oce…

My understanding is that AMOC collapse is not gulf stream collapse. The gulf stream will still exist, but will just be weaker.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#16

Post by marcyb5st »

V__ wrote: post #7
deadbabe wrote: post #3

Once it tips, how screwed will Europe be?

Rome is further north than New York City. Very screwed.

I believe southern European countries won't be as screwed. The Mediterranean sea has enough thermal mass to keep things Ok. North of the Alps screwed big time.

However, the lack of rainfall could be the real killer. As the warm humid air would stops coming it's not clear if the precipitations would be enough to sustain crops in Mediterranean countries.

Also, the US east cost and the Caribbean countries would be fucked as well. All that energy would stay there supercharging hurricanes as they cross the gulf of Mexico. That area of the world would basically be subject to both the precipitations and thermal energy that is now keeping northern Europe livable as it wouldn't spread over.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#17

Post by deanCommie »

myth_drannon wrote: post #10
octaane wrote: post #6

I cannot overemphasize how epochal of a crisis this would be for human civilization - the gulf stream is pretty much the only thing keeping northern europe (The UK, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, parts of germany, the Netherlands, etc) habitable by current standards. Basically, the gulf stream is a conveyor belt that grabs nice warm water from southern latitudes (carribean, southeast atlantic oce…

Europe suffers from unprecedented heat waves, record after record. Wouldn't it be beneficial for temperatures to drop 10C? I remember the winters in Eastern Europe in the 80's unbearably cold (to a child), now barely any snow and endless forest fires in summer...

You're probably going to get downvoted, but the reality is it's a valid question.

Just as apparently sulfur emissions from global shipping fleets helped offset some warming and eco-friendly fuel actually caused problems, the climate is complex, and there are definitely going to be the collision of interesting trade-offs.

Unfortunately, most likely, the answer is there won't be anything beneficial here. Remember, the key here isn't average global temperatures, but rather the temperature range. Life likes a temperate climate in a narrow range of degrees. Not just humans, but agriculture too.

If you lower the winter temperatures by 10 degrees, and raise the summer ones by 10, your crops still die either from the frost or from the fire. And humans likewise either freeze on the street or overheat in the sun.

This is the main thing climate change denialists can never seem to grasp. It's not the specific temperature numbers, it's the SPEED at which it's happening. Humans, in their current biological form, have been around for a million years, and survived much larger climate swings. But...the climate also changed slower. And they migrated. And they still almost didn't make it several times, barely surviving.

A world where hundreds of millions of people from the indian subcontinent are trying to escape murderous heat one season while tens of millions of people in Europe are freezing in the winter, and putting up walls to protect what they already have, is not one where humanity thrives.

In the long term we'll probably be fine. A few billion will die. Demographics and politics will shift. The human spirit will persevere, and we'll innovate our way through and adapt to a new world.

But it might take a century and our children and our children's children will not be better off than us.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#18

Post by barbazoo »

rozap wrote: post #9
octaane wrote: post #6

I cannot overemphasize how epochal of a crisis this would be for human civilization - the gulf stream is pretty much the only thing keeping northern europe (The UK, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, parts of germany, the Netherlands, etc) habitable by current standards. Basically, the gulf stream is a conveyor belt that grabs nice warm water from southern latitudes (carribean, southeast atlantic oce…

And presumably there's another side of it too? Like all that hot air would have to be somewhere else if not Western Europe. That somewhere else would also have a bad time, just in the opposite direction. Very bleak.

Crazy in my mind to think about the system moving unimaginable amounts of energy around the planet and now we're changing it on a time scale shorter than what the planet usually sees. Reminds me of what I read about the Younger Dryas and how temperatures changed within centuries, if not decades.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#19

Post by hatthew »

Eddy_Viscosity2 wrote: post #14
octaane wrote: post #6

I cannot overemphasize how epochal of a crisis this would be for human civilization - the gulf stream is pretty much the only thing keeping northern europe (The UK, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, parts of germany, the Netherlands, etc) habitable by current standards. Basically, the gulf stream is a conveyor belt that grabs nice warm water from southern latitudes (carribean, southeast atlantic oce…

Maybe the cooling from lack of gulf stream air will perfectly counter-act the increase in heat of global warming and result in net zero effect?

The gulf stream doesn't create heat, it just moves it. If it doesn't move as much heat, then the destination will get colder and presumably the source will get warmer.
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