Can't wait for the pop to take out all the grifters and leave us to do the actual work in peace with reasonably priced GPUs.
The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst
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Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst
#12Given how much capital has already been committed to infrastructure development I find it very unlikely that even a Black Monday style market correction will do much to alter the medium and long term outlook for ai development and investment.
Too many people talk about a bubble almost wish-casting that such a thing will make this all go away. It’s probably safest to assume your political enemies won’t be hoisted on their own petard anytime soon.
Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst
#13Every time I see an article like this a quote comes to mind: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." -- John Maynard Keynes Predicting when a bubble is going to burst is close to impossible.
But it feels like it’s about to pop! It really is hard to stay objective as predictors all seem to point one way.
What predictors do you mean? I’m genuinely curious
Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst
#14If you get your information from a sad rag like the Telegraph, then you deserve what you receive. :)
Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst
#15Every time I see an article like this a quote comes to mind: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." -- John Maynard Keynes Predicting when a bubble is going to burst is close to impossible.
Fortunately, there are open-end put options, so the timing doesn't have to be THAT accurate. EDIT: to be precise: I mean open-end turbo put, which have no expiration but a knock-out.
Put options have an expiration. So I'm curious what you mean by "open-end"?
Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst
#16The article claims that: a) AI is a bubble b) It's about to burst This is based on a study that "just 5pc of integrated AI pilots are extracting millions in value, while the vast majority remain stuck with no measurable P&L [profit and loss] impact". I think the conclusions (while possibly true) are not supported here. By comparison, in the stock market in general, just a handful of stocks provide most of the returns…
You have LinkedIn lunatics saying exactly this for years, AI startups are a money printer, that we're months away from AGI that gives drop in 1000x (or even infinite asymptotic) return. Adding 'AI' to your name bumps your valuation even if it is Actually Indians behind the scenes. THAT bubble needs to burst.
Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst
#17A good sign the bubble is not actually bursting: a mainstream news publication predicting it. [1]
It's still 1994. We won't be near the top until the Telegraph publishes an article overly exuberant about AI and saying AGI is here.
If every idiot commenting on Reddit, HN, X, and mainstream news publications is pessimistic and constantly shouting "bubble!," then definitionally, we have not reached irrational exuberance and we're not even remotely near the top.
[1] https://d.newsweek.com/en/full/566807/theinternetbah3.webp (1995)
Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst
#18Given how much capital has already been committed to infrastructure development I find it very unlikely that even a Black Monday style market correction will do much to alter the medium and long term outlook for ai development and investment. Too many people talk about a bubble almost wish-casting that such a thing will make this all go away. It’s probably safest to assume your political enemies won’t be hoisted on t…
> Given how much capital has already been committed to infrastructure development I find it very unlikely that even a Black Monday style market correction will do much to alter the medium and long term outlook for ai development and investment.
So let's bet on sunken cost fallacy? That didn't work out during the dotcom era.
When people talk about the bubble is mostly about ending the LLM hype, not making everything associated just disappear. The infrastructure, ideas and developments will stay and probably end up being a lot more useful without the noisy hype surrounding it right now.
Re: The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst
#19> “When will the internet bubble burst?” the cover story of Barron’s asked on March 20 2000. “That unpleasant popping sound is likely to be heard before the end of this year.”
Again—the internet was a bubble, and yet it eventually far surpassed even the frothiest expectations.
If you're investing for the short-term, do what you gotta do. The AI bubble will burst and lots of superficial companies will be washed away. But we're just getting started. This next wave will make a new round of companies like Netflix, Amazon, Apple, etc.