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Creativity Predicts a Longer Life

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Creativity Predicts a Longer Life

#11

Post by lutusp »

dllthomas wrote: post #4
tlb wrote: post #3

That word "Predicts" is dangerous. It strongly suggests causation, though it only reflects a statistical correlation. Many external causes are known to negatively effect both creativity and life-span. Most chronic illnesses reduce both. Alcoholism reduces both. Genetic disorders such as Down's syndrome or Huntington's reduce both. Given many known mechanisms for external factors causing both factors in a correlation…

> That word "Predicts" is dangerous. It strongly suggests causation, though it only reflects a statistical correlation. REALLY? What do you WANT them to say? Accuracy of a prediction implies some sort of causal relationship, but not a direct one by any means. All of the thing you suggest are causal links. A genetic disorder causing a decrease in both lifespan and creativity is causation. "A predicts B" does NOT AT AL…

>> That word "Predicts" is dangerous. It strongly suggests causation, though it only reflects a statistical correlation.

> REALLY?

Yes -- really. It is very misleading.

> What do you WANT them to say?

Replace "predicts" with "is correlated with." That's the meaning of the work being described -- a correlation between A and B has been observed. But this doesn't mean that A predicts B, or A causes B, or even that B causes A. Both may result from some unevaluated cause C.

Science is not description, it is explanation. The linked article describes, and then draws a conclusion that goes far beyond the description. But it never presumes to explain why the author's conclusion might be so.

> "A predicts B" does NOT AT ALL imply "A causes B"

It certainly does. Rain predicts puddles. Puddles do not predict rain, they follow from it.

Re: Creativity Predicts a Longer Life

#12

Post by meric »

tlb wrote: post #7
dllthomas wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That word "Predicts" is dangerous. It strongly suggests causation, though it only reflects a statistical correlation. REALLY? What do you WANT them to say? Accuracy of a prediction implies some sort of causal relationship, but not a direct one by any means. All of the thing you suggest are causal links. A genetic disorder causing a decrease in both lifespan and creativity is causation. "A predicts B" does NOT AT AL…

"is correlated with". If you're not convinced that the reporters are trying to suggest causation with the word "predicts", try swapping the two terms. Would they write a headline, "Longer life predicts creativity"?

If the statistics show that creative people are correlated with longer life, but that longer life is only correlated with creativity if factors X, Y, Z are also present (but not necessarily just X, Y, Z without creativity), then it would be correct to say "creativity predicts longer life" but not "longer life predicts creativity"; while not implying any causation.

Also it could be that some long living people are creative and all creative people are long living; while creative still not being a cause of the longer life. (let's say all creative people eat peanut butter sandwiches, and it was infact the peanut butter that caused a longer life.)

"The weatherman predicts the weather". Are you saying in this sentence, causation is implicitly referenced?

...

Re: Creativity Predicts a Longer Life

#13

Post by meric »

tlb wrote: post #3

That word "Predicts" is dangerous. It strongly suggests causation, though it only reflects a statistical correlation. Many external causes are known to negatively effect both creativity and life-span. Most chronic illnesses reduce both. Alcoholism reduces both. Genetic disorders such as Down's syndrome or Huntington's reduce both. Given many known mechanisms for external factors causing both factors in a correlation…

In statistics, which this is, a "prediction" is an outcome that the statistics suggests would happen. The "cause" isn't involved. A predicts B, means that having factor A means factor B is likely present also. And that is that. There is no suggestion of causation.

This is a science magazine, the reporter would have read a lot of papers over his career, and because "A predicts B" is such a common use to denote correlation in statistics, I wouldn't blame him/her.

Re: Creativity Predicts a Longer Life

#14

Post by meric »

lutusp wrote: post #10

> Creativity Predicts a Longer Life False! Creativity is correlated with a longer life. > A large body of research links neuroticism with poorer health and conscientiousness with superior health. [Emphasis added.] There's that word again -- "links". Neuroticism is not linked with poorer health, it is correlated with poorer health. And so forth -- frankly, the linked article is a piece of pseudoscientific trash. Psych…

Predict is something you can do if something is "correlated"!

Having creativity is highly correlated with a longer life, therefore, creativity can be used as a factor to predict whether a person has longer life.

It doesn't mean that if you get more creative you live longer, just that if you look at the existing population, the more creative people are likely to live longer also.

See?

Search for this phrase in this paper "We show how simple image statistics can be used to predict the presence and absence of objects in the scene before exploring the image."

http://cvcl.mit.edu/papers/TorralbaOliva03.pdf

You can see how "predict" is a word for an action you can take if something is correlated.

Re: Creativity Predicts a Longer Life

#15

Post by lutusp »

meric wrote: post #14
lutusp wrote: post #10

> Creativity Predicts a Longer Life False! Creativity is correlated with a longer life. > A large body of research links neuroticism with poorer health and conscientiousness with superior health. [Emphasis added.] There's that word again -- "links". Neuroticism is not linked with poorer health, it is correlated with poorer health. And so forth -- frankly, the linked article is a piece of pseudoscientific trash. Psych…

Predict is something you can do if something is "correlated"! Having creativity is highly correlated with a longer life, therefore, creativity can be used as a factor to predict whether a person has longer life. It doesn't mean that if you get more creative you live longer, just that if you look at the existing population, the more creative people are likely to live longer also. See? Search for this phrase in this pa…

> Predict is something you can do if something is "correlated"!

This is false. I saw a puddle, so I predict that the puddle will cause rain. See the problem? You can't "predict" until you have a cause-effect relationship.

A correlation is not a cause-effect relationship:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_caus...

A quote: "The opposite belief, correlation proves causation, is a logical fallacy by which two events that occur together are claimed to have a cause-and-effect relationship. The fallacy is also known as cum hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin for "with this, therefore because of this") and false cause. It is a common fallacy in which it is assumed that, because two things or events occur together, one must be the cause of the other."

> You can see how "predict" is a word for an action you can take if something is correlated.

You may be able to do that. Scientists require evidence.

Re: Creativity Predicts a Longer Life

#16

Post by dllthomas »

lutusp wrote: post #11
dllthomas wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That word "Predicts" is dangerous. It strongly suggests causation, though it only reflects a statistical correlation. REALLY? What do you WANT them to say? Accuracy of a prediction implies some sort of causal relationship, but not a direct one by any means. All of the thing you suggest are causal links. A genetic disorder causing a decrease in both lifespan and creativity is causation. "A predicts B" does NOT AT AL…

>> That word "Predicts" is dangerous. It strongly suggests causation, though it only reflects a statistical correlation. > REALLY? Yes -- really. It is very misleading. > What do you WANT them to say? Replace "predicts" with "is correlated with." That's the meaning of the work being described -- a correlation between A and B has been observed. But this doesn't mean that A predicts B, or A causes B, or even that B cau…

"A predicts B" means "A precedes B, and knowing A will substantially improve your guess about B." Obviously, puddles do not predict rain - they happen after. As someone else said, though, the weather man predicts rain, but rain doesn't follow from the weatherman's statements - the causal relationship there is substantially indirect; measurements of various phenomena are fed into models, themselves developed from past observation, which causes various information to be printed on a screen which causes the weatherman to say certain things that, yes, correlate strongly but not perfectly with the weather tomorrow. This is not hugely different, in terms of information flow, than us predicting a lower longevity for Steve based on observation of his lesser creativity, both caused perhaps by the same gene (leading to the correlation we are exploiting to make the prediction).

Re: Creativity Predicts a Longer Life

#17

Post by dllthomas »

lutusp wrote: post #15
meric wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Predict is something you can do if something is "correlated"! Having creativity is highly correlated with a longer life, therefore, creativity can be used as a factor to predict whether a person has longer life. It doesn't mean that if you get more creative you live longer, just that if you look at the existing population, the more creative people are likely to live longer also. See? Search for this phrase in this pa…

> Predict is something you can do if something is "correlated"! This is false. I saw a puddle, so I predict that the puddle will cause rain. See the problem? You can't "predict" until you have a cause-effect relationship. A correlation is not a cause-effect relationship: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_caus... A quote: "The opposite belief, correlation proves causation, is a logical fallacy by…

Evidence of a correlation is all that's necessary to do that, scientist or not. What a correlation tells me is that if I observe A, I am likely to observe B. In the case of rain and puddles, there is a temporal component that seems to be confusing you. Rain now is correlated with puddles for a while in the future. Puddles now may not be correlated with rain now or in the future[1]. Observing puddles now, I can't tell you anything about rain in the future because there is no correlation, not because there is no causation.

[1] If the weather in the area tends to be the same day to day, then I can absolutely predict rain tomorrow based on puddles today, to occasionally be frustrated by weather change or sprinklers.

Re: Creativity Predicts a Longer Life

#18

Post by lutusp »

dllthomas wrote: post #17
lutusp wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Predict is something you can do if something is "correlated"! This is false. I saw a puddle, so I predict that the puddle will cause rain. See the problem? You can't "predict" until you have a cause-effect relationship. A correlation is not a cause-effect relationship: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_caus... A quote: "The opposite belief, correlation proves causation, is a logical fallacy by…

Evidence of a correlation is all that's necessary to do that, scientist or not. What a correlation tells me is that if I observe A, I am likely to observe B. In the case of rain and puddles, there is a temporal component that seems to be confusing you. Rain now is correlated with puddles for a while in the future. Puddles now may not be correlated with rain now or in the future[1]. Observing puddles now, I can't tell…

> there is a temporal component that seems to be confusing you.

I am not confused. Confusing correlation with causation is a very common logical error -- you are not alone.

Re: Creativity Predicts a Longer Life

#19

Post by lutusp »

dllthomas wrote: post #16
lutusp wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> That word "Predicts" is dangerous. It strongly suggests causation, though it only reflects a statistical correlation. > REALLY? Yes -- really. It is very misleading. > What do you WANT them to say? Replace "predicts" with "is correlated with." That's the meaning of the work being described -- a correlation between A and B has been observed. But this doesn't mean that A predicts B, or A causes B, or even that B cau…

"A predicts B" means "A precedes B, and knowing A will substantially improve your guess about B." Obviously, puddles do not predict rain - they happen after. As someone else said, though, the weather man predicts rain, but rain doesn't follow from the weatherman's statements - the causal relationship there is substantially indirect; measurements of various phenomena are fed into models, themselves developed from past…

> This is not hugely different ...

You're missing the crucial distinction between describing and explaining. A correlation is a description, and descriptions aren't science. Only by proposing an explanation, then testing it, do we enter the domain of science. We also have the chance to turn a correlation into something more than a coincidence.

Re: Creativity Predicts a Longer Life

#20

Post by meric »

lutusp wrote: post #15
meric wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Predict is something you can do if something is "correlated"! Having creativity is highly correlated with a longer life, therefore, creativity can be used as a factor to predict whether a person has longer life. It doesn't mean that if you get more creative you live longer, just that if you look at the existing population, the more creative people are likely to live longer also. See? Search for this phrase in this pa…

> Predict is something you can do if something is "correlated"! This is false. I saw a puddle, so I predict that the puddle will cause rain. See the problem? You can't "predict" until you have a cause-effect relationship. A correlation is not a cause-effect relationship: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_caus... A quote: "The opposite belief, correlation proves causation, is a logical fallacy by…

Correlation is statistical evidence.

You broke your own example by inserting the word "cause" into the sentence. Of course your example is a cause-effect relationship.

Statistical evidence suggesting correlation of two factors A and B are enough for one to say "The presence of A predicts B" as well as "The presence of B predicts A".

Please, don't warp the meaning of the word "predict".

"I predict tomorrow is going to rain" There is no way that sentence suggests a cause-effect relationship.

"This specific color pattern in the image is a great predictor of the presence of rain when the photograph was taken" Neither does this sentence suggests a cause-effect relationship.

No one here is confused between correlation and causation. I'm simply insisting the word "predict" has to do with correlation, not causation.

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