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US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

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Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#12
post #7
post #2

This whole economy by corruption and coercion is not going to work out.

It has historically worked pretty well, for several centuries at a time. Are you saying there’s something different this time ?

I don't know what you're thinking of.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#13
post #2

This whole economy by corruption and coercion is not going to work out.

I don't see how it can't work at least short term, when the US is by a long margin the world leading military and economic power. Why else has the US been overspending on military for decades and planting military bases and nuclear submarines all over the world, to become the world hegemony, if not to bully everyone in doing its bidding when push comes to shove? I'm not defending the actions of the US, I'm just askin…

> I don't see how it can't work at least short term, when the US is by a long margin the world military and economic power.

The 90s were ~30 years ago. American economic and military capacity ain't what they used to be, and alienating your allies and friends is starting to look like a poor strategy.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#14
post #2

This whole economy by corruption and coercion is not going to work out.

I don't see how it can't work at least short term, when the US is by a long margin the world leading military and economic power. Why else has the US been overspending on military for decades and planting military bases and nuclear submarines all over the world, to become the world hegemony, if not to bully everyone in doing its bidding when push comes to shove? I'm not defending the actions of the US, I'm just askin…

No magic that keeps your businesses efficient or running if the government is picking winners and using tariffs. Quite the opposite.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#16
post #3

I'm kinda of shocked that chip & many tech companies play ball.. They are a required / no alternatives industry by so much of the USA, with limited alternatives. Is it really more cost-effective for each of these companies to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to avoid tariffs when they could easily pass on these costs because we have no alternatives?

I think people in power are pretty fond of non democratic systems, they like them. They make friends and get favors. Far easier than competing.

And what's the alternative for many of them? Lawsuits?

SCOTUS has quit doing their job. The checks and balances are out the window. There is no leadership / anyone in power at the national level when it comes to democracy in the US at this time.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#17
post #3

I'm kinda of shocked that chip & many tech companies play ball.. They are a required / no alternatives industry by so much of the USA, with limited alternatives. Is it really more cost-effective for each of these companies to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to avoid tariffs when they could easily pass on these costs because we have no alternatives?

Honestly, this is a win-win for TSMC.

Intel isn't dead. They've made some bad choices and investments but they're still huge. They have $30 billion in gross profit per year on an utterly boring, non-hype based business model. Get rid of some dead weight, write off the bad investments, improve their foundry business and their value easily grows multiples of what it currently is.

On top of it already being a shrewd business deal, doing a favour for the US government also potentially buys protection for TSMC and Taiwan from China. Plus the immediate tariff relief.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#18
If tariffs really raised money in the way Trump pretends then the US government could surely just grant Intel a direct share of all tarrif revenue raised from sales in to the US from Tawain?

Of course the reality is you're just taxing Americans to subsidise Intel at that point, since tarrifs are a tax on Americans and not foreigners.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#19
post #2

This whole economy by corruption and coercion is not going to work out.

I don't see how it can't work at least short term, when the US is by a long margin the world leading military and economic power. Why else has the US been overspending on military for decades and planting military bases and nuclear submarines all over the world, to become the world hegemony, if not to bully everyone in doing its bidding when push comes to shove? I'm not defending the actions of the US, I'm just askin…

It will not work out over the long run. This is corruption; it breeds corruption, and corruption creates victims. Victims don't put up with it forever and as the old cold case appeal spiel goes, "alliances shift over time".

More prosaically, in the short term: TSMC are now effectively compelled to acquire Intel entirely or at least a controlling share, right?

Unless Trump's shakedown requires them to own 49% but then bans them from owning more than 50%, which would be the end of the USA as any sort of free market -- and I concede that is possible, because the USA now has a leader who acts more and more like an autocrat -- aren't TSMC essentially compelled by their own interests to find the just-greater-than 1% somewhere?

If you're blackmailing me into owning almost all of something but not getting control of what I owned, I think the logical next step is to forcibly gain control, yes? Because it turns the tables.

Not least because acquiescing even to buying 49% paints a target on my back.

Trump is not saving Intel: he is guaranteeing it is going to get broken up and sold off. He is destroying it. (More to the point he is immediately tying its existence to the success or failure of his own Asia-facing foreign policy, which means he is effectively asserting control over it)

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#20
Taiwan is under a tremendous pull by China, both non violent and violent. Any push by the US is a push towards China.

Trump has no idea what he is doing. HE can not replace Brazilian coffee, but at least it is "only" coffee. Not being able to replace a fab is a precarious situation.

Is he imagining invading Taiwan? China would consider that an invasion to its territory.

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