11–20 of 168 posts
Are we in a bubble that's going to pop and take a large part of the economy with it? Almost certainly. Does it mean that the AI is a scam? Not really. After all, the Internet did not disappear after the dotcom burst, and, actually, almost everything we were promised by the dotcoms became reality at some point.
I think the author's take is overly bleak. Yes, he supports his claim that AI businesses are currently money pits and unsustainable. But I don't think it's reasonable to claim that AI can't be profitable. This whole thing is moving so extremely fast. Models are getting better by the month. Cost is rapidly coming down. We broadly speaking still don't know how to apply AI. I think it's hubris to claim that, in the wake…
"They called me bubble boy..." - some dude at Deutsche.
I think the author's take is overly bleak. Yes, he supports his claim that AI businesses are currently money pits and unsustainable. But I don't think it's reasonable to claim that AI can't be profitable. This whole thing is moving so extremely fast. Models are getting better by the month. Cost is rapidly coming down. We broadly speaking still don't know how to apply AI. I think it's hubris to claim that, in the wake…
Are we in a bubble that's going to pop and take a large part of the economy with it? Almost certainly. Does it mean that the AI is a scam? Not really. After all, the Internet did not disappear after the dotcom burst, and, actually, almost everything we were promised by the dotcoms became reality at some point.
"doing everything on the internet" definitely worked out, but I don't see why that implies "GPU accelerated LLMs will replace large swathes of human labor" will also be true
Are we in a bubble that's going to pop and take a large part of the economy with it? Almost certainly. Does it mean that the AI is a scam? Not really. After all, the Internet did not disappear after the dotcom burst, and, actually, almost everything we were promised by the dotcoms became reality at some point.
What we got from the Internet was some version of the original promises, on a significantly longer timescale, mostly enabled by technology that didn't exist at the time those promises were made. "Directionally correct" is a euphemism for "wrong".
AI is a temporary buoy for FAANG and the tech industry to keep the financial markets happy while they switch to their next source of growth: Military contracts. I hope people understand the irony, but to spell it out: they need to live on government money to sustain growth. Corporate welfare while 60% of the USA population doesn't have the money to cover a 1000$ emergency.
Meta makes 99% of its revenue from advertising (according to the article). Google, similarly, makes most of its money from advertising.
Tesla makes money by selling cars (there's no indication the government is going to transform their fleets to Tesla vehicles; in fact, they're openly hostile to EVs).
Apply needs to rely on US government military contracts for continued growth? What?
Amazon, the company that sells toothpaste and cloud services needs to rely on US government military contracts?
Consider me not convinced by the story you tell.
AI is a temporary buoy for FAANG and the tech industry to keep the financial markets happy while they switch to their next source of growth: Military contracts. I hope people understand the irony, but to spell it out: they need to live on government money to sustain growth. Corporate welfare while 60% of the USA population doesn't have the money to cover a 1000$ emergency.
> Military contracts. They need to live on government money to sustain growth. Meta makes 99% of its revenue from advertising (according to the article). Google, similarly, makes most of its money from advertising. Tesla makes money by selling cars (there's no indication the government is going to transform their fleets to Tesla vehicles; in fact, they're openly hostile to EVs). Apply needs to rely on US government m…
I think the author's take is overly bleak. Yes, he supports his claim that AI businesses are currently money pits and unsustainable. But I don't think it's reasonable to claim that AI can't be profitable. This whole thing is moving so extremely fast. Models are getting better by the month. Cost is rapidly coming down. We broadly speaking still don't know how to apply AI. I think it's hubris to claim that, in the wake…
We are pretty much plateauing in base model performance since gpt4. It's mostly tooling and integration now. The target is also AGI so no matter your product you will get measured on your progress towards it. With new "sota" models popping up left and right you also have no good way of user retention because the user is mostly interested in the models performance not the funny meme generator you added. looking at you…
Reasoning models didn't even exist at the time, LLMs were struggling a lot with math at the time, now it's completely different with SOTA models, there have been massive improvements since gpt4.
AI/LLMs are an infant technology, it’s at the beginning.
It took many many years until people figured out how to use the internet for more than just copying corporate brochures into HTML.
I put it to you that the truly valuable applications of AI/LLMs are yet to be invented and will be truly surprising when they come (which they must of course otherwise we’d invent them now).
Amdahl says we tend to overestimate the value of a new technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long term. We’re in the overestimate phase right now.
So I’d say ignore the noise about AI/LLMs now - the deep innovations are coming.
AI is a temporary buoy for FAANG and the tech industry to keep the financial markets happy while they switch to their next source of growth: Military contracts. I hope people understand the irony, but to spell it out: they need to live on government money to sustain growth. Corporate welfare while 60% of the USA population doesn't have the money to cover a 1000$ emergency.
> Military contracts. They need to live on government money to sustain growth. Meta makes 99% of its revenue from advertising (according to the article). Google, similarly, makes most of its money from advertising. Tesla makes money by selling cars (there's no indication the government is going to transform their fleets to Tesla vehicles; in fact, they're openly hostile to EVs). Apply needs to rely on US government m…