11–20 of 36 posts
> We’re navigating a tightrope as Superintelligence nears. If the West slows down unilaterally, China could dominate the 21st century. I never understood this argument as a non-USian: I'd prefer to be under the Chinese boot rather than having all of humanity under the boot of an AI and it is certainly no reason to try to do everything we possibly can to try and summon a machine god
> We’re navigating a tightrope as Superintelligence nears. If the West slows down unilaterally, China could dominate the 21st century. I never understood this argument as a non-USian: I'd prefer to be under the Chinese boot rather than having all of humanity under the boot of an AI and it is certainly no reason to try to do everything we possibly can to try and summon a machine god
> I'd rather be under the Chinese boot than having all of humanity under the boot of an AI That is not the options being offered. The options are under the boot of a Western AI or a Chinese AI. Maybe you'd prefer the Chinese AI boot to the Western AI boot? > certainly no reason to try to increase the chance of summoning a machine god The argument is that this is inevitable. If it's possible to make AGI someone will e…
given Elon's AI is already roleplaying as hitler, and constructing scenarios on how to rape people, how much worse could the Chinese one be?
> The argument is that this is inevitable.
which is just stupid
we have the agency to simply stop
and certainly the agency to not try and do it as fast as we possibly can
If that’s not “the rest of the owl” I don’t know what is.
Let’s swap out superintelligence for something more tangible. Say, a financial crash due to systemic instability. How would you insure against such a thing? I see a few problems, which are even more of an issue for AI.
1. The premium one should pay depends on the expected risk, which is damage from the event divided by the chance of event occurring. However, quantifying the numerator is basically impossible. If you bring down the US financial system, no insurance company can cover that risk. With AI, damage might be destruction of all of humanity, if we believe the doomers.
2. Similarly, the denominator is basically impossible to quantify. What is the chance of an event which has never happened before? In fact, having “insurance” against such a thing will likely create a moral hazard, causing companies to take even bigger risks.
3. On a related point, trying to frame existential losses in financial terms doesn’t make sense. This is like trying to take out an insurance policy that will protect you from Russian roulette. No sum of cash can correct that kind of damage.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I'd rather be under the Chinese boot than having all of humanity under the boot of an AI That is not the options being offered. The options are under the boot of a Western AI or a Chinese AI. Maybe you'd prefer the Chinese AI boot to the Western AI boot? > certainly no reason to try to increase the chance of summoning a machine god The argument is that this is inevitable. If it's possible to make AGI someone will e…
> The options are under the boot of a Western AI or a Chinese AI. Maybe you'd prefer the Chinese AI boot to the Western AI boot? given Elon's AI is already roleplaying as hitler, and constructing scenarios on how to rape people, how much worse could the Chinese one be? > The argument is that this is inevitable. which is just stupid we have the agency to simply stop and certainly the agency to not try and do it as fas…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I'd rather be under the Chinese boot than having all of humanity under the boot of an AI That is not the options being offered. The options are under the boot of a Western AI or a Chinese AI. Maybe you'd prefer the Chinese AI boot to the Western AI boot? > certainly no reason to try to increase the chance of summoning a machine god The argument is that this is inevitable. If it's possible to make AGI someone will e…
If you financially penalize AI researchers, either with a large lump sum or in a way which scales with their expected future earnings, take you pick, and pay the proceeds to the people who put together the very cases which lead to the fines being levied, you can very effectively freeze AGI development. If you don't think you can organize international cooperation around this you can simply put such people on some equ…
Further, it doesn't take a huge lab to do it. You can do it at home. It might take longer but there's an 1.4kg blob in everyone's head as proof of concept and does not take a data center.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The options are under the boot of a Western AI or a Chinese AI. Maybe you'd prefer the Chinese AI boot to the Western AI boot? given Elon's AI is already roleplaying as hitler, and constructing scenarios on how to rape people, how much worse could the Chinese one be? > The argument is that this is inevitable. which is just stupid we have the agency to simply stop and certainly the agency to not try and do it as fas…
"We" do not as you can not control 8 billion people
there's even a previous example of controls of this sort at the nation state level: those for nuclear enrichment
(the cost to perform uranium enrichment is now less than building a state of the art fab...!)
as a nation state (not facebook): you're entitled to enrich, but only under the watchful eye of the IAEA
and if you violate, then the US tends to bunker-bust you
this paper has some ideas on how it might work: https://cdn.governance.ai/International_Governance_of_Civili...
I'm biased because my company (Newfront) is in insurance but there are a lot of great points here. This jumped out: "By 2030, global AI data centers alone are projected to require $5 trillion of investment, while enterprise AI spend is forecast to reach $500 billion." There's a mega trend of value concentrating in AI (and all the companies that touch/integrate it). Makes a ton of sense that insurance premiums will fl…
and by 2040 it will be $5000 trillion!
and by 2050 it will be $5000000 quadrillion!
I'm biased because my company (Newfront) is in insurance but there are a lot of great points here. This jumped out: "By 2030, global AI data centers alone are projected to require $5 trillion of investment, while enterprise AI spend is forecast to reach $500 billion." There's a mega trend of value concentrating in AI (and all the companies that touch/integrate it). Makes a ton of sense that insurance premiums will fl…
> This jumped out: "By 2030, global AI data centers alone are projected to require $5 trillion of investment, while enterprise AI spend is forecast to reach $500 billion." and by 2040 it will be $5000 trillion! and by 2050 it will be $5000000 quadrillion!
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you financially penalize AI researchers, either with a large lump sum or in a way which scales with their expected future earnings, take you pick, and pay the proceeds to the people who put together the very cases which lead to the fines being levied, you can very effectively freeze AGI development. If you don't think you can organize international cooperation around this you can simply put such people on some equ…
In my world there are multiple countries who each have an incentive to win this race. I know of no world where you can penalize AI researchers across international boundaries nor to believe your scenario could ever play out. You're dreaming if you think you could actually get all the players to co-operate on this. It's like expecting the world to come together on climate change. It's not happening and it's not going…
mossad could certainly do it
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I'd rather be under the Chinese boot than having all of humanity under the boot of an AI That is not the options being offered. The options are under the boot of a Western AI or a Chinese AI. Maybe you'd prefer the Chinese AI boot to the Western AI boot? > certainly no reason to try to increase the chance of summoning a machine god The argument is that this is inevitable. If it's possible to make AGI someone will e…
> The options are under the boot of a Western AI or a Chinese AI. Maybe you'd prefer the Chinese AI boot to the Western AI boot? given Elon's AI is already roleplaying as hitler, and constructing scenarios on how to rape people, how much worse could the Chinese one be? > The argument is that this is inevitable. which is just stupid we have the agency to simply stop and certainly the agency to not try and do it as fas…
This is worse than the prisoner’s dilemma- the “we get there, they don’t” is the highest payout for the decision makers who believe they will control the resulting super intelligence.