Elon Musk, pfft. Mark Zuckerberg is a much more plausible concern.
Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically
11–20 of 42 posts
Re: Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically
#12Gary Marcus has a dichotomy between extinction versus bad actors. I feel a third possibiltiy is much more likely: a world of extreme specialization where AI reigns supreme, and where humans are mainly button-pushers. Those at the top and who still enjoy life will be the techies who are good at and enjoy making things with AI, which will be approximately 1% of the population. The other 99% will be administrators, butt…
This is such a utilitarianistic point of view, Not everyone is defined by their work, not everyone cares about how distinguishable they are from the others, or even how the others think of them, and I would even argue, that very few oligarchs/billionaires etc belong to the group of people that truly enjoy life.
Re: Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically
#13p(doom) is 100% and it's silly to think it's anything less. As soon as anyone figures out how to build SI, all it takes is one person to run off with the secret sauce and build a malevolent version of it.
Cool. Meanwhile in the real world that isn't governed by science fiction, we're dealing with a billionaire using LLMs to wage information warfare towards explicitly white supremacist ends right now. Let's focus on that right now?
Re: Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically
#14p(doom) is 100% and it's silly to think it's anything less. As soon as anyone figures out how to build SI, all it takes is one person to run off with the secret sauce and build a malevolent version of it.
i won't use the term p(doom), but i agree that the human race is "doomed" in the same way all things that exist are "doomed."
Re: Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically
#15Armies of killer robots are real now. Ukraine makes about 4 million military drones a year. Russia makes slightly fewer. Control is becoming more automated, because there are not enough people to control all those drones. Drones have to operate despite jamming, so they need to be fully autonomous on the battlefield.
And yes, there are AI killbot startups.[1] "At SECL Group, our team has vast experience in developing various drone systems, including those related to drone swarms. If you are interested in implementing AI-based target recognition capabilities in your UAVs, feel free to get in touch with us to discuss the details."
[1] https://seclgroup.com/adding-ai-and-ml-to-military-drones-fo...
Re: Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically
#16p(doom) is 100% and it's silly to think it's anything less. As soon as anyone figures out how to build SI, all it takes is one person to run off with the secret sauce and build a malevolent version of it.
Cool. Meanwhile in the real world that isn't governed by science fiction, we're dealing with a billionaire using LLMs to wage information warfare towards explicitly white supremacist ends right now . Let's focus on that right now?
could you provide more details on this?
Re: Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically
#17Elon Musk, pfft. Mark Zuckerberg is a much more plausible concern.
Zuckerberg is incompetent.
He was lucky, and that's all, with Facebook and has coasted on its momentum ever since.
Every single "play" after that has failed.
Not only have they failed, he's even fallen into the dictator's trap: where wealthy men who surround themselves with multiple layers of overlapping and competing of staff and hierarchy which act to completely insulate and isolate them from reality start or fund outlandish, impossible, vanity projects.
I don't know why these guys don't take the money and run and spend the rest of their lives scuba diving and fixing vintage sports cars in their garage-- but I'm not a sociopath.
Musk is less incompetent.
Re: Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically
#18p(doom) is 100% and it's silly to think it's anything less. As soon as anyone figures out how to build SI, all it takes is one person to run off with the secret sauce and build a malevolent version of it.
Cool. Meanwhile in the real world that isn't governed by science fiction, we're dealing with a billionaire using LLMs to wage information warfare towards explicitly white supremacist ends right now . Let's focus on that right now?
Replace LLMs with any other source of labor and we've had that for centuries. What's changed?
Re: Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically
#19p(doom) is 100% and it's silly to think it's anything less. As soon as anyone figures out how to build SI, all it takes is one person to run off with the secret sauce and build a malevolent version of it.
Cool. Meanwhile in the real world that isn't governed by science fiction, we're dealing with a billionaire using LLMs to wage information warfare towards explicitly white supremacist ends right now . Let's focus on that right now?
lol I wish that were true
Re: Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically
#20Everybody looks at AI 2027 and nobody looks at Gradual Disempowerment. They both came out at around the same time and they both portend tremendous volumes of doom with a litany of citations, but the preexisting skynet/paperclipper memes means that nobody talks at length about the scenario of a few hundred human owners using AI servants to eliminate everybody else out of an incremental slippery slope of good business sense.