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What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

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Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#11

Post by superkuh »

Two things combined: uncertainty if the heat pump can handle cold regions making purchasing decisions much more difficult than with normal heating solutions which just work everywhere all the time. And that combined with the huge initial capital cost of in ground heat pump loops required in much of the country due to the cold winters.

This second, the large capital cost from ground excavation or drilling, etc, means heat pumps really only make sense and will see adoption in new houses, not existing houses. At least in places where it actually gets cold regularly. I expect much stronger adoption where simple above ground units are feasible.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#12

Post by jasonthorsness »

FWIW I have a heat pump with natural gas backup installed in Washington state in 2016 and it's been great. As I recall even in 2016 there was no huge argument against it when you have to replace an existing natural gas furnace. Even in Washington it's nice to have AC and with a heat pump you get a more efficient furnace AND AC in one package.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#13

Post by toomuchtodo »

jasonthorsness wrote: post #12

FWIW I have a heat pump with natural gas backup installed in Washington state in 2016 and it's been great. As I recall even in 2016 there was no huge argument against it when you have to replace an existing natural gas furnace. Even in Washington it's nice to have AC and with a heat pump you get a more efficient furnace AND AC in one package.

The only part needed to make an AC condensing unit a heat pump is a reversing valve (which can change coolant flow direction based on thermostat input). The cost for this valve is $100-$300. There is no reason to not make every unit a heat pump by default, considering the minimal cost and that you're amortizing the cost of the system over 10-20 years.

With that said, depending on your latitude and climate, non electric backup heat might be necessary (to your point, a fossil gas furnace). Depends on your home envelope thermal efficiency (how long can it maintain heat without additional input or solely with solar input during the day), electrical utility reliability, etc.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#14

Post by ilamont »

Essays like this filled with AI-generated spew are really irritating. I hope these figures aren't hallucinations, but it jives with my own experience:

Ductless systems averaged around $29,000, but quotes ranged from under $20,000 to over $40,000. Ducted systems averaged $38,000, with bids spanning from under $25,000 to over $50,000—an astonishing 100% difference from low to high for both systems.

This is a non-starter for tens of millions of households. Not just the range, but the low end of the range, which approaches the cost of a new car. Lots of people will look at this, and say, "No thanks, I can get 2 or 3 window-mounted ACs at Walmart for a fraction of the price."

Four years ago when we got a heat pump/mini split the cost was at the low end of the range, but sweetened with a state loan program with 0% interest for the life of the loan. No brainer. I doubt those incentives exist in the current rate environment.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#15

Post by dv_dt »

theultdev wrote: post #9

same reason people don't have A/Cs in some places. although you'll get heatwaves sometimes, it's not worth it overall. similarly, although these may be more efficient than what you already have, it costs money upfront to install new stuff. money people don't have.

I sure wish heat pumps were higher in my awareness when I had to replace an old AC/Gas central air stack - though that was many years ago before the efficiencies of heat pumps were quite as nice as the current generation.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#16

Post by roter »

The pros for heat pumps are numerous. There is the issue of resilience to extreme weather. ASHRAE is funding a project, just getting underway, to create a map, first of the USA but anticipated to be expanded to worldwide, of heat pump resilience in the face of an expected change in the frequency of extreme events. Those wanting to learn more:

https://www.ashrae.org/file%20library/technical%20resources/...

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#17

Post by AaronNewcomer »

superkuh wrote: post #11

Two things combined: uncertainty if the heat pump can handle cold regions making purchasing decisions much more difficult than with normal heating solutions which just work everywhere all the time. And that combined with the huge initial capital cost of in ground heat pump loops required in much of the country due to the cold winters. This second, the large capital cost from ground excavation or drilling, etc, means…

I think you’re confusing geothermal systems (ground excavation, drilling, etc) which are not what this article is talking about.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#18

Post by superkuh »

AaronNewcomer wrote: post #17
superkuh wrote: post #11

Two things combined: uncertainty if the heat pump can handle cold regions making purchasing decisions much more difficult than with normal heating solutions which just work everywhere all the time. And that combined with the huge initial capital cost of in ground heat pump loops required in much of the country due to the cold winters. This second, the large capital cost from ground excavation or drilling, etc, means…

I think you’re confusing geothermal systems (ground excavation, drilling, etc) which are not what this article is talking about.

I'm not. The problem with air-source heat pumps is that they don't work when it gets really cold (ie, a typical -15F minnesota average low for months at a time). They freeze up and stop working and cannot provide heat.

So for heat pumps to work in the northern parts of the USA (say, Minnesota/Wisconsin/etc) they cannot just be pumping heat from the air. They require geothermal loops.

So that's the two problems I described: weather a heat pump will work for your region of the USA is a complex issue. It's safer and easier to just pick a normal heating system. This uncertainty makes choosing heat pumps less likely in marginal climates like, say, Iowa. Of course this doesn't apply to places, like, say, Texas, which only get brief minor cold. Adoption of heat pumps there is straightforwards.

The follow on is that if you still want a heat pump in the cold parts of the USA you need a ground loop heat pump. And that has a very high initial capital cost, which means they basically only get put in during initial construction, not as add-ons to existing houses.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#19

Post by johnea »

ilamont wrote: post #14

Essays like this filled with AI-generated spew are really irritating. I hope these figures aren't hallucinations, but it jives with my own experience: Ductless systems averaged around $29,000, but quotes ranged from under $20,000 to over $40,000. Ducted systems averaged $38,000, with bids spanning from under $25,000 to over $50,000—an astonishing 100% difference from low to high for both systems. This is a non-starte…

I just paid about $12K to install mini-split heat pumps on a main house and ADU.

Two separate systems.

That's about 1/2 of the "minimum" cited above, and it's for 2 buildings.

This is so similar to the EV panic.

I'm not sure if the article is LLM slop, I only scanned it. But I agree with the main point that it's not the tech holding this back, it's the US population.

I also bought a 2 year old used Nissan Leaf (w/ 15K miles) for $15K. I charge it at home.

Neither of these purchases broke the bank. And both of them will pay for themselves over a few years. Maybe American's should learn to multiply. Then the cost of something over time will make it's adoption a clear winner.

The resistance to electrification is one of the US's biggest self inflicted wounds (after actual gunshot wounds of course).

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#20

Post by theultdev »

johnea wrote: post #19
ilamont wrote: post #14

Essays like this filled with AI-generated spew are really irritating. I hope these figures aren't hallucinations, but it jives with my own experience: Ductless systems averaged around $29,000, but quotes ranged from under $20,000 to over $40,000. Ducted systems averaged $38,000, with bids spanning from under $25,000 to over $50,000—an astonishing 100% difference from low to high for both systems. This is a non-starte…

I just paid about $12K to install mini-split heat pumps on a main house and ADU. Two separate systems. That's about 1/2 of the "minimum" cited above, and it's for 2 buildings. This is so similar to the EV panic. I'm not sure if the article is LLM slop, I only scanned it. But I agree with the main point that it's not the tech holding this back, it's the US population. I also bought a 2 year old used Nissan Leaf (w/ 15…

> And both of them will pay for themselves over a few years

how much did you save on your bills a month?

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