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Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#11

Post by jjcm »

I own two Teslas, and drive between Portland and Seattle about once every 10 days, using FSD nearly the entire way.

FSD has gotten amazingly better over the last year, it can and has taken me from driveway to driveway between two cities... when the weather is nice. As soon as there is any weather however, things start to fall apart. It's very clear to me that vision alone wont be the solution to FSD, and is the main reason why I believe Waymo's approach here is simply better.

That's not to say vision wont work when the environment is good - FSD has gotten to the point where when things are optimal, it's a better driver than I am (ie it does better at merging into a lane of traffic better than I could, since it has 360 vision), but it simply isn't stable in the face of dynamic conditions.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#12

Post by Analemma_ »

blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

I also got the free month of FSD about four months ago and tried it out on my Model 3, and was astonished at how bad it was in the greater Seattle area: I had to manually intervene on about 4 out of every 5 drives. I do not understand how I continue to see so many comments online raving about how great FSD is; I have to conclude these are coming from either desperate stock-boosters or people who drive exclusively on wide, flat roads in Salt Lake City early on weekend mornings when the roads are all empty.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#13

Post by Workaccount2 »

blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

Best of luck, I can't tell you how much I have lost having rational takes on Tesla that proved correct in reality, but ultimately immaterial to shareholders.

Tesla stock is a cult stock. People buy it because it goes up. It always goes up. Wall street has long been clued into the brain damage and delusions it's core investors have, and are more than happy to play into the fantasy. Its a company of perpetual massive promises while always carefully dancing around "hammer drop" days.

Robotaxi isn't launching, it's being rolled out over months slowly. Which will turn to years, but like always Elon will be "1 year away" to Tesla paradise. Everything this company is priced on is slowly "rolling out" with the full launch "just around the corner".

Tesla FSD right around the corner

Tesla Semi right around the corner

Tesla Tesla robotaxi right around the corner

Tesla Optimus robot right around the corner

Tesla supercar right around the corner

And people really genuinely believe this is all right around the corner, so load up now while it is still "undervalued"...

But just to be honest here, the people who have full on bought into the hype have made incredible amounts of money.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#14

Post by detourdog »

turnsout wrote: post #2

Thinking of re-upping my put options on $TSLA. This launch is destined to be a fiasco. It's unbelievable to me that they doubled down on vision-only at the expense of lidar. Google/Waymo is going to eat their lunch on the self-driving side, and the Tesla brand is dying with consumers. This company is cooked.

The danger about shorting TSLA is that Elon may have a staff buying puts and calls to balance on the trading troughs. I was watching the trading volume during the big declines in the spring think the support was dropping out but it always came back. The biggest recovery was when he went to the Middle East with Trump. I think his dog and pony show had a big buy in at a critical time.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#15

Post by AlotOfReading »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #9
iw7tdb2kqo9 wrote: post #6

Tesla had more chance to succeed than Waymo. It's impossible for Waymo to match Tesla in real world training and testing data. Somehow Waymo is winning.

Waymo has ~40 million miles of test data. Tesla has ~4B miles. But for training both quantity and quality are important. Tesla only uploads excerpts and metadata for its 4B miles, and it's video only. Waymo can fully analyze all 40M miles, and it's much richer, with LIDAR and other sensors. My feeling is that Waymo has the data advantage.

You can also just buy camera data from other OEMs, not to mention the vast amounts available from public sources like YouTube or Google maps vehicles that are accessible to them if they really care. The vast, vast majority of that data is uninteresting though. It's not much better than simulation data, which Waymo has many tens of billions of miles worth.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#16

Post by cowthulhu »

blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

Tesla has proven to be very good at lying, moving goalposts, and insisting that this time [x] is right around the corner. I don't know what would be different this time. They might launch it with, like, 5 cars total, or have it be 100% teleoperated, or limit it to side roads.

They might require the passenger to sit in the drivers seat and take liability, or push it back a few more months, or only run it at 3AM when there is no traffic.

I don't think any of these would tank the stock price, since historically Tesla has gotten away with similar skulduggery. I learned the hard way many years ago to not bet against Tesla, and I don't see anything here that would override that lesson.

Fingers crossed for you though - I definitely think Tesla is irrationally priced, and there would be a certain justice in that overinflated valuation sinking down to reality.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#17

Post by monetus »

RajT88 wrote: post #3
turnsout wrote: post #2

Thinking of re-upping my put options on $TSLA. This launch is destined to be a fiasco. It's unbelievable to me that they doubled down on vision-only at the expense of lidar. Google/Waymo is going to eat their lunch on the self-driving side, and the Tesla brand is dying with consumers. This company is cooked.

So - the cooked-ness of Tesla may depend on what you think Musk's goal was with Tesla. If you believe he was out to change the world - maybe he'll let Tesla die. It's unlikely they are going to accomplish much else at this point, better, smarter more experienced competitors are sweeping the board. If you believe he's out to make as much money as he can, he'll probably course correct at some point. Lidar it is clear w…

Elon has positioned adopting lidar as a personal defeat - I am curious if his ego would allow that course correction.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#18

Post by turnsout »

RajT88 wrote: post #3
turnsout wrote: post #2

Thinking of re-upping my put options on $TSLA. This launch is destined to be a fiasco. It's unbelievable to me that they doubled down on vision-only at the expense of lidar. Google/Waymo is going to eat their lunch on the self-driving side, and the Tesla brand is dying with consumers. This company is cooked.

So - the cooked-ness of Tesla may depend on what you think Musk's goal was with Tesla. If you believe he was out to change the world - maybe he'll let Tesla die. It's unlikely they are going to accomplish much else at this point, better, smarter more experienced competitors are sweeping the board. If you believe he's out to make as much money as he can, he'll probably course correct at some point. Lidar it is clear w…

I don't understand how you could look at Elon's actions and think he has any interest in making as much money as he can. He's already made his money. Now he's gone full Howard Hughes. "I would like to die on Mars" is a direct quote.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#19

Post by mosdl »

WorkerBee28474 wrote: post #7
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

A great quote and applies to a lot of things

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#20

Post by vjvjvjvjghv »

turnsout wrote: post #18
RajT88 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So - the cooked-ness of Tesla may depend on what you think Musk's goal was with Tesla. If you believe he was out to change the world - maybe he'll let Tesla die. It's unlikely they are going to accomplish much else at this point, better, smarter more experienced competitors are sweeping the board. If you believe he's out to make as much money as he can, he'll probably course correct at some point. Lidar it is clear w…

I don't understand how you could look at Elon's actions and think he has any interest in making as much money as he can. He's already made his money. Now he's gone full Howard Hughes. "I would like to die on Mars" is a direct quote.

I think he is on a power trip but the last 6 months have taught him that his opinions are not as valued as he thought.
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