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Now might be the best time to learn software development
11–20 of 375 posts
Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development
#12It's like "we invented Fortran so there will be no need for so many developers"
An interesting parallel because there were undoubtedly some people who worried we would lose something important in the craft of instruction-level programming, and almost certainly we have in relative terms. But in absolute numbers I am confident we have more low-level programmers than we did before Fortran.
And if I were to jump into instruction-level programming today I would start by asking an LLM where to begin...
Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development
#13The farming quote is interesting, but one of the Jevons paradox requirements is a highly elastic demand curve, and food is inelastic.
The open questions right now are how much of a demand is there for more software, and where do AI capabilities plateau.
Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development
#14"Great news, boss! We invented this new tool that allows nontechnical people to write code in English! Now anyone can deploy applications, and we don't have to hire all those expensive developers!"
"Wow, show it to me!"
"OK here it is. We call it COBOL."
Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development
#15The farming quote is interesting, but one of the Jevons paradox requirements is a highly elastic demand curve, and food is inelastic . The open questions right now are how much of a demand is there for more software, and where do AI capabilities plateau.
Reported numbers vary but household food waste seems to be fairly high in developed economies, so food demand might be more elastic than intuition would expect.
Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development
#16"Great news, boss! We invented this new tool that allows nontechnical people to write code in English! Now anyone can deploy applications, and we don't have to hire all those expensive developers!" "Wow, show it to me!" "OK here it is. We call it COBOL."
You're joking but it's true. I'm sure you know that. SQL had similar claims... Declarative, say what you need and the computer will do for you. Also written in English.
Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development
#17"Great news, boss! We invented this new tool that allows nontechnical people to write code in English! Now anyone can deploy applications, and we don't have to hire all those expensive developers!" "Wow, show it to me!" "OK here it is. We call it COBOL."
Bravo. This is the exact sentiment I have, but you expressed in a way that I could never have.
Most people miss the fact that technical improvements increases the pie in a way that was not possible before.
When digital cameras became popular, everybody become a photographer. That only made the world better, and we got soo many more good photographers. Same with YouTube & creativity.
And same with coding & LLMs. World will have lots more of apps, and programmers.
Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development
#18"Great news, boss! We invented this new tool that allows nontechnical people to write code in English! Now anyone can deploy applications, and we don't have to hire all those expensive developers!" "Wow, show it to me!" "OK here it is. We call it COBOL."
Bravo. This is the exact sentiment I have, but you expressed in a way that I could never have. Most people miss the fact that technical improvements increases the pie in a way that was not possible before. When digital cameras became popular, everybody become a photographer. That only made the world better, and we got soo many more good photographers. Same with YouTube & creativity. And same with coding & LLMs. World…
And now the business of wedding / portrait photographer has become hyper-competitive. Now everyone's cousin is an amateur photographer and every phone has an almost acceptable camera built in. It is much more difficult to have a profitable photography business compared to 20 years ago.
Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development
#19> What do you do while awaiting the agents writing your code?
I browse the web. Eventually, I review the agent code and more often than not, I rewrite it.
Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development
#20I'm not sure if I agree with every aspect of the framing here; specifically, I don't think the efficiency gains are anywhere on par with a combine harvester.
However, I do agree that the premium shifts from mere "coding" ability -- we already had a big look into this with the offshoring wave two decades ago -- to domain expertise, comprehension of the business logic, ability to translate fluidly between different kinds of technical and nontechnical stakeholders, and original problem-solving ability.