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Fred Wilson says venture capital funds have gotten too big

technologyreview.com

11–20 of 28 posts

Re: Fred Wilson says venture capital funds have gotten too big

#11

Can one start a tech company anymore without Venture Capital?

Yes :) . Depending on your definition of tech, of course, there are several bootstrapped companies.

Some examples include Github, Imgur, Carbonmade, 37Signals, Braintree, DuckDuckGo, AppSumo, Atlassian, Envato, etc, etc...

There are also other sources of funding (ex: StartupChile), and that's not even counting angel investors.

Re: Fred Wilson says venture capital funds have gotten too big

#12
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always return to this bet with John Kay: http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=6BLqprHdwygC&lpg=PA15... returns for the most successful railroad companies were mere 5% - competition kept things down (although speculation in early years lead to phenomenal returns - if sold) However, a moderate VC return is 3fold over ten years - which is ~12.5% YoY (unless my maths is bad). But then that is 12.5% of millions and millio…

I struggle to understand your point - I'd love to here a bit more to understand it. The IRR numbers I mention refer to UFCF/equity, i.e. no exit (hence return) via company/asset sale.

That the return (assuming no sale at top of a bubble) for the best companies in the biggest industry of 19C was only 5%-10%. (Based on equity, it seems Harford did not calculate dividend return which may make a difference)

Making 15-20% without an exit is a great deal - supporting I think your point.

Re: Fred Wilson says venture capital funds have gotten too big

#13
I'm curious why Fred Wilson would proclaim to the world that investing in his VC firm isn't going to give you the return that you're looking for these days. Is there a short term gain for him that I'm not seeing? Or is Wilson genuinely trying to change an industries path with a few words of wisdom? I'm not suggesting that his advice is bad. It seems to make sense to me.

Re: Fred Wilson says venture capital funds have gotten too big

#14

Can one start a tech company anymore without Venture Capital?

What's a tech company? There are certainly examples of small teams or single developers making a living from selling software on the various app stores with no VC funding.

Re: Fred Wilson says venture capital funds have gotten too big

#15
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the returns on social media and fiddly web apps will be looking back 10 years from now.

For the VCs and pension funds, or the investors at large that trust the IPOing banks?

For VCs. Just VCs.

Re: Fred Wilson says venture capital funds have gotten too big

#16
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I struggle to understand your point - I'd love to here a bit more to understand it. The IRR numbers I mention refer to UFCF/equity, i.e. no exit (hence return) via company/asset sale.

That the return (assuming no sale at top of a bubble) for the best companies in the biggest industry of 19C was only 5%-10%. (Based on equity, it seems Harford did not calculate dividend return which may make a difference) Making 15-20% without an exit is a great deal - supporting I think your point.

Indeed, I agree. I'd be curious to know how common was the use of debt during that period. 5%-10% is a good return on an unlevered asset, debt could provide an additional turn - then, I don't know how the Kd and CPI was during that period.

Re: Fred Wilson says venture capital funds have gotten too big

#17
post #13

I'm curious why Fred Wilson would proclaim to the world that investing in his VC firm isn't going to give you the return that you're looking for these days. Is there a short term gain for him that I'm not seeing? Or is Wilson genuinely trying to change an industries path with a few words of wisdom? I'm not suggesting that his advice is bad. It seems to make sense to me.

One of us missed something here. I did not see Fred saying investing in his firm is not a good idea. I saw him talking about VC's in general having a poor return and thus putting investors on the fence. It's probably safe to assume that with Fred's profile and track record he's not personally struggling.

Re: Fred Wilson says venture capital funds have gotten too big

#18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the VCs and pension funds, or the investors at large that trust the IPOing banks?

For VCs. Just VCs.

For most of them, it won't matter what the return 10 years from now is, they are cashing out much sooner

Re: Fred Wilson says venture capital funds have gotten too big

#20

VCs are not too big, they are (apparently) investing in the wrong companies. If humanity overall wins out, the next 20-30 years will see industries we can barely imagine grow to maturity. From electric driver-less cars, to new forms of power generation (even fusion), new building methods, new education, and vast mega-cities will spring out of nowhere. In the West, in the rest of the world, we will see vast demand for…

Being 31, growing up when I did, sometimes the things discussed in TED, and the wonderful future you allude to, seem like flying cars.

And not to be down on you, or the future in general. Maybe this is a side effect of growing not only when I did, but where, being in more rural Georgia. Or being "not an optimist".

That all aside, power storage really does seem key. Imagine if electric cars could be refueled by an easily accessible battery change out? And one imagines if everything is electric, then advances in any power generation tech transferable to electricity instantly gives advantage to everyone. Yeah, that future is a romantic one. But I just don't know.

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