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Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

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Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#11

Post by ThomPete »

diego wrote: post #9
ThomPete wrote: post #5

Facebook have a problem that Google hasn't. 1. Their social graph is great but it has one major flaw. It's very bad at profiling intent. They also have a problem they share with Google. 2. They haven't found a way to make advertising work on mobile, an increasing part of their visits. Unless they find a way to solve those two areas they will not be able grow their revenue without hurting their visitors.

It's not just the graph. Intent is very fleeting. You can't know "instantaneous intent" from someone's history and graph (e.g. what will be my next Google query?) More about this point on my blog if you're interested: http://diegobasch.com/facebook-and-twitter-dont-know-what-yo...

Yeah I think that is what I am saying.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#12

Post by ThomPete »

r00fus wrote: post #8
ThomPete wrote: post #5

Facebook have a problem that Google hasn't. 1. Their social graph is great but it has one major flaw. It's very bad at profiling intent. They also have a problem they share with Google. 2. They haven't found a way to make advertising work on mobile, an increasing part of their visits. Unless they find a way to solve those two areas they will not be able grow their revenue without hurting their visitors.

> 2. They haven't found a way to make advertising work on mobile, an increasing part of their visits. And herein is the problem: Apple - Apple is so against advertising that they created their own iAd network to keep other companies out of the game (it doesn't have to really be a success - just enough to keep devs off competing ad networks). As long as Apple is influential in the mobile world, Google and Facebook are…

Hmm

Actually I think the problem is bigger than that.

Android is a more popular mobile OS than iOS by far and in fact googles reason for approaching it that way is that they want a platform to serve ads on.

But so far they havne't managed to find a way to do it.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#14

Post by samstave »

r00fus wrote: post #8
ThomPete wrote: post #5

Facebook have a problem that Google hasn't. 1. Their social graph is great but it has one major flaw. It's very bad at profiling intent. They also have a problem they share with Google. 2. They haven't found a way to make advertising work on mobile, an increasing part of their visits. Unless they find a way to solve those two areas they will not be able grow their revenue without hurting their visitors.

> 2. They haven't found a way to make advertising work on mobile, an increasing part of their visits. And herein is the problem: Apple - Apple is so against advertising that they created their own iAd network to keep other companies out of the game (it doesn't have to really be a success - just enough to keep devs off competing ad networks). As long as Apple is influential in the mobile world, Google and Facebook are…

This is also because the business model of apple vs FB|GOOG is completely opposite. People pay apple for their products. People expect everything from Google and FB to be free.

People are paying apple for their products and do not want to pay to have that product riddled with spam.

Frankly, FB has to figure out how to make a search service, via fb.com and their mobile apps.

An interesting twist could be to allow users to search for things that other users are doing or planning to do. e.g. "who is interested in going to the movies tonight?" and let a group organize around that activity - then sell them discounted movie tickets.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#15

Post by rootedbox »

jamesmcn wrote: post #13

It is worth highlighting that this sale was via a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. That is, Thiel made the decision to sell prior to the IPO.

A facebook insider decided that facebook wasn't worth keeping his money in prior to the IPO. That is highlightable..

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#16

Post by samstave »

nazgulnarsil wrote: post #10
grandalf wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think CPAs are the right metric. Facebook is massively engaging. I think TV is the most natural synergy b/c people socialize around it today but only in one household. Facebook should also launch a web search similar to Google just go capture some market share in search-driven advertising. Around the world, Facebook is the fastest loading website (it often beats Google). Its infrastructure is ready to make a…

if TV is the model facebook should acquire synchtube.

Facebook should sponsor and create content viewing events that are only visable via facebook.

What if there was a "real world FB" where FB users live together and drama ensues - and the only way to watch it is FB.com.

There are so many other things that FB could do to truly be a platform: Education via FB, Work via FB (think having a mechanical turk via FB where users could sign up to be a part of the service and use the FB platform to earn money), videoconference within FB, etc etc etc.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#17

Post by joelrunyon »

grandalf wrote: post #4
joelrunyon wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"awesome business" and "massive potential" aren't mutually exclusive events. It can have massive potential, but never deliver and still be a terrible business. Sure, it's got a lot of upside if you can buy it at the right price, but up till now, it hasn't shown advertisers (who make up the majority of their revenue) that it can deliver customers as acceptable CPAs. Until that happens, we'll still be waiting for faceb…

I don't think CPAs are the right metric. Facebook is massively engaging. I think TV is the most natural synergy b/c people socialize around it today but only in one household. Facebook should also launch a web search similar to Google just go capture some market share in search-driven advertising. Around the world, Facebook is the fastest loading website (it often beats Google). Its infrastructure is ready to make a…

If CPAs aren't the right metric, you still need to find a better metric to convince advertisers it's worth it.

And I think the "look how many users we have!" metric is going away quickly.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#18

Post by qq66 »

Would you expect him to do anything else? Invert the question: if you had $500 million cash, would you spend it all on Facebook stock? Or Google stock? Or any one stock?

Even for company insiders who really believe in the future of their company, it isn't prudent to hold more than a small fraction of a billion-dollar fortune in one stock, from a purely rational perspective. Of course, the public expects irrationally enthusiastic behavior from founders, which is the only thing that leads to the gigantic fortunes amassed by the Gates/Ellisons of the world.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#19

Post by batgaijin »

grandalf wrote: post #2

I'm going to buy when it gets closer to $10 per share. Half the world uses Facebook every day so let's not pretend it isn't an awesome business with utterly massive potential.

See, I hate arguments for this.

How many new accounts did you create annually 10 years ago? How many new accounts did you create annually 5 years ago? How many new accounts did you create this year?

People don't mind switching, and in fact they don't mind having simultaneous accounts. People on this forum think that they are 'special' inasmuch they don't mind negotiating multiple accounts with relative ease, but it's an inevitable tactic.

Facebook can be used to login to other sites, but with Google+ and Twitter and the $20 share price, nobody small wants to bet on Facebook. It's like making an Xbox 360 exclusive game if there was a $0 porting cost.

If Facebook is bought out by Microsoft or Apple, it will truly be a threat as a universal login system. But until then, they will die a death from a 1000 paper cuts.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#20

Post by slantyyz »

grandalf wrote: post #4
joelrunyon wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"awesome business" and "massive potential" aren't mutually exclusive events. It can have massive potential, but never deliver and still be a terrible business. Sure, it's got a lot of upside if you can buy it at the right price, but up till now, it hasn't shown advertisers (who make up the majority of their revenue) that it can deliver customers as acceptable CPAs. Until that happens, we'll still be waiting for faceb…

I don't think CPAs are the right metric. Facebook is massively engaging. I think TV is the most natural synergy b/c people socialize around it today but only in one household. Facebook should also launch a web search similar to Google just go capture some market share in search-driven advertising. Around the world, Facebook is the fastest loading website (it often beats Google). Its infrastructure is ready to make a…

Facebook is massively engaging, but the ads they allow to appear on the site are incredibly off-putting.

I personally don't mind ads on sites, but the Facebook ads that I'm fed all appear to be for slimy businesses (I'm constantly seeing ads for Canadian Pardons that are using what I believe to be unauthorized images of celebrities) or have seemingly low-to-no production values.

They need to fix or curate the way ads are displayed, because I think it will eventually become a hindrance to their success.

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