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Acquisitions, consolidation, and innovation in AI

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Re: Acquisitions, consolidation, and innovation in AI

#11
This focuses on case where the acquirer seeks to capture the value of the startup's business. But this is not always the case, sometimes the startup is dubious, but a cash-rich enterprise can purchase startups simply to eliminate potential avenues of competition. They may not be interested in adding a better product to their portfolio, only in quashing any nascent attempts at building the better product so they can keep selling their own mediocre one.

Also, "model innovation" strikes me as missing the point these days. The models are really good already. The majority of applications is capturing only a tiny bit of their value. Improving the models is not that important because model capability is not the bottleneck anymore, what matters is how the model is used. We just don't have enough tools to use them fully, and what we have is not even close to penetrating the market, while all the dominant tools are garbage. Of course application innovation is the place to be!

Re: Acquisitions, consolidation, and innovation in AI

#12

I read the article and while it doesn’t say this nor imply it, this is my takeaway, though correct me if I’m wrong: Model innovation is effectively converging and slowing down considerably. The big companies in this space doing the research are not making leap over leap with each release, and the downstream open source projects are coming closer to the same quality or in fact can produce the same quality (e.g DeepSee…

I agree with this but I think it's still an open question if anyone can build a successful product on top of the tech. There will likely be some but it feels eerily similar to the dot com boom (and then bust) when the vast majority of new products built on top of this (internet) technology didn't produce and didn't survive. Most AI products so far are fun toys or interesting proofs, and mediocre when evaluated against other options. They'll need to be applied to a much smaller set of problems (that doesn't support the current level of investment) or find some new miracle set of problems where they change the rules.

Businesses are definitely rearranging themselves structurally around AI - at least to try and get the AI valuation multiplier and Executives have levels of FOMO I've never seen before. I report to a CTO and the combination of 100,000 foot hype combined with down in the weeds focus on the "protocol de jour" (with nothing in between that looks like a strategy) is astounding. I just find it exhausting.

Re: Acquisitions, consolidation, and innovation in AI

#13

I read the article and while it doesn’t say this nor imply it, this is my takeaway, though correct me if I’m wrong: Model innovation is effectively converging and slowing down considerably. The big companies in this space doing the research are not making leap over leap with each release, and the downstream open source projects are coming closer to the same quality or in fact can produce the same quality (e.g DeepSee…

>Model innovation is effectively converging and slowing down considerably. The big companies in this space doing the research are not making leap over leap with each release, and the downstream open source projects are coming closer to the same quality or in fact can produce the same quality (e.g DeepSeek or LLAMA) hence why it’s becoming a commodity.

You're just showing how disconnected from the progress of the field you are. o3/o4 aren't even in the same universe as anything from open source. Deepseek R1, LLama 4? Are you joking?

Re: Acquisitions, consolidation, and innovation in AI

#14
post #3

One thing this article gets wrong is how OpenAI isn’t an application layer company, they built the original ChatGPT “app” with model innovation to power it. They’re good at UX and actually have the strongest shot at owning the most common apps (like codegen).

I personally find their UX frustrating, basically a junior developer's attempt at doing a front end. What do you think is so good about it?

It's also janky as hell and crashes regularly.

Re: Acquisitions, consolidation, and innovation in AI

#17
post #3

One thing this article gets wrong is how OpenAI isn’t an application layer company, they built the original ChatGPT “app” with model innovation to power it. They’re good at UX and actually have the strongest shot at owning the most common apps (like codegen).

I don't disagree. But that's a pretty good reason to make sure you're making something other than the obvious common apps if you want a big chunk of acquisition money.

Re: Acquisitions, consolidation, and innovation in AI

#18

I read the article and while it doesn’t say this nor imply it, this is my takeaway, though correct me if I’m wrong: Model innovation is effectively converging and slowing down considerably. The big companies in this space doing the research are not making leap over leap with each release, and the downstream open source projects are coming closer to the same quality or in fact can produce the same quality (e.g DeepSee…

I agree with this but I think it's still an open question if anyone can build a successful product on top of the tech. There will likely be some but it feels eerily similar to the dot com boom (and then bust) when the vast majority of new products built on top of this (internet) technology didn't produce and didn't survive. Most AI products so far are fun toys or interesting proofs, and mediocre when evaluated agains…

The dot com boom is an apt analogy: the internet took off, we understood it had potential, but the innovation didn't all come in the first wave. It took time for the internet to bake, and then we saw another boom with the advent of mobile phones, higher bandwidth, and more compute per user.

It is still simply too early to tell exactly what the new steady state is, but I can tell you that where we're at _today_ is already a massive paradigm shift from what my day-to-day looked like 3 years ago, at least as a SWE.

There will be lots of things thrown at the wall and the things that stick will have a big impact.

Re: Acquisitions, consolidation, and innovation in AI

#19

I read the article and while it doesn’t say this nor imply it, this is my takeaway, though correct me if I’m wrong: Model innovation is effectively converging and slowing down considerably. The big companies in this space doing the research are not making leap over leap with each release, and the downstream open source projects are coming closer to the same quality or in fact can produce the same quality (e.g DeepSee…

>Model innovation is effectively converging and slowing down considerably. The big companies in this space doing the research are not making leap over leap with each release, and the downstream open source projects are coming closer to the same quality or in fact can produce the same quality (e.g DeepSeek or LLAMA) hence why it’s becoming a commodity. You're just showing how disconnected from the progress of the fiel…

Depends on how they're applied. I've had success using LLama and while we check to see if OpenAI or Google's Gemini would give us any noticeable improvement, it really doesn't for our use case.

While certainly newer models are more capable on the whole, it doesn't mean I need all that capability to accomplish the business goal.

Re: Acquisitions, consolidation, and innovation in AI

#20

I read the article and while it doesn’t say this nor imply it, this is my takeaway, though correct me if I’m wrong: Model innovation is effectively converging and slowing down considerably. The big companies in this space doing the research are not making leap over leap with each release, and the downstream open source projects are coming closer to the same quality or in fact can produce the same quality (e.g DeepSee…

>Model innovation is effectively converging and slowing down considerably. The big companies in this space doing the research are not making leap over leap with each release, and the downstream open source projects are coming closer to the same quality or in fact can produce the same quality (e.g DeepSeek or LLAMA) hence why it’s becoming a commodity. You're just showing how disconnected from the progress of the fiel…

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