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The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

mohitdagarwal.substack.com

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Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#11

Post by tintor »

ivape wrote: post #5

Interesting, Marvell is actually down over 50% this year. I just don't understand the bear case at all. I'm a nobody and I'm still willing to buy a $1500 gpu, and that GPU still can't do what the cloud does. The next $1500 gpu probably can't either. It feels like we're over thinking this. The hardware roll-out is all there is imho. Jensen has mentioned he sees Nvidia being a 10 trillion-dollar company, and I'm willin…

Their upcoming AI PC is dead of arrival since they announced its underwhelming memory bandwidth.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#12

Post by alephnerd »

ivape wrote: post #5

Interesting, Marvell is actually down over 50% this year. I just don't understand the bear case at all. I'm a nobody and I'm still willing to buy a $1500 gpu, and that GPU still can't do what the cloud does. The next $1500 gpu probably can't either. It feels like we're over thinking this. The hardware roll-out is all there is imho. Jensen has mentioned he sees Nvidia being a 10 trillion-dollar company, and I'm willin…

> I wonder what's stopping Nvida from releasing an AI phone

B2C is a hellish headache that has marginal returns if you are not B2C first, and the amount of investment needed to be B2C competent just isn't worth it when there are alternative options to invest in

> A LLM competitor service (Hey, how about you guys make your own chips

Already exists. AI Foundary

> They are already releasing an AI PC

It's just an OEM rehash

> Their own self driving cars

Not worth the headache and also losing customers like Google or Amazon due to competitive pressure

------

Cannot reply: releasing their own "Nvidia Car" means they will lose their existing automotive partners becuase they will not spend on a competitor. Same reason Walmart stipulates EVERY tech vendor must decouple from AWS when selling to them.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#13

Post by VirusNewbie »

alephnerd wrote: post #12
ivape wrote: post #5

Interesting, Marvell is actually down over 50% this year. I just don't understand the bear case at all. I'm a nobody and I'm still willing to buy a $1500 gpu, and that GPU still can't do what the cloud does. The next $1500 gpu probably can't either. It feels like we're over thinking this. The hardware roll-out is all there is imho. Jensen has mentioned he sees Nvidia being a 10 trillion-dollar company, and I'm willin…

> I wonder what's stopping Nvida from releasing an AI phone B2C is a hellish headache that has marginal returns if you are not B2C first, and the amount of investment needed to be B2C competent just isn't worth it when there are alternative options to invest in > A LLM competitor service (Hey, how about you guys make your own chips Already exists. AI Foundary > They are already releasing an AI PC It's just an OEM reh…

They have a whole huge self driving car division, they just partner with existing car companies.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#14

Post by tintor »

ein0p wrote: post #10

How can it be "slipping" if they sell out of all their stuff years in advance? I still can't find any sanely priced 5090s. And before you point out that 5090s are not their main revenue driver, they're sold out of H100s and so on years in advance, too.

And how many 5090 were actually produced? It is easy to sell out with low volume production.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#15

Post by voidspark »

ein0p wrote: post #10

How can it be "slipping" if they sell out of all their stuff years in advance? I still can't find any sanely priced 5090s. And before you point out that 5090s are not their main revenue driver, they're sold out of H100s and so on years in advance, too.

The article is about HPC/AI where they are quickly becoming less competitive.

Gaming is only 7% of Nvidia's revenue.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#16

Post by chneu »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #6
ivape wrote: post #5

Interesting, Marvell is actually down over 50% this year. I just don't understand the bear case at all. I'm a nobody and I'm still willing to buy a $1500 gpu, and that GPU still can't do what the cloud does. The next $1500 gpu probably can't either. It feels like we're over thinking this. The hardware roll-out is all there is imho. Jensen has mentioned he sees Nvidia being a 10 trillion-dollar company, and I'm willin…

Gaming GPUs is a side business for them at this point. It’s all about AI.

Gosh, I have a coworker who acts like gaming GPUs are the only hardware that matters.

I've tried explaining that one or two AI data center clients for Nvidia dwarfs the entire gaming GPU market, but he just doesn't get it.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#17

Post by chneu »

ein0p wrote: post #10

How can it be "slipping" if they sell out of all their stuff years in advance? I still can't find any sanely priced 5090s. And before you point out that 5090s are not their main revenue driver, they're sold out of H100s and so on years in advance, too.

Consumer hardware is nothing for Nvidia. Gamers need to realize that, lol.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#18

Post by adventured »

tintor wrote: post #11
ivape wrote: post #5

Interesting, Marvell is actually down over 50% this year. I just don't understand the bear case at all. I'm a nobody and I'm still willing to buy a $1500 gpu, and that GPU still can't do what the cloud does. The next $1500 gpu probably can't either. It feels like we're over thinking this. The hardware roll-out is all there is imho. Jensen has mentioned he sees Nvidia being a 10 trillion-dollar company, and I'm willin…

Their upcoming AI PC is dead of arrival since they announced its underwhelming memory bandwidth.

They'll do ~$110 billion in operating income over the next four quarters, with a mere 36,000 employees and no meaningful dividend or debt to maintain. I think they can trivially afford to keep trying if they see a market.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#19

Post by voidspark »

alephnerd wrote: post #2

Services! Services services services! This is what will help protect Nvidia now that DC and cluster spend is cooling. They own the ecosystem thanks to CUDA, Infiniband, NGC, NVLink, and other key tools. Now they should add additional applications (the AI Foundry is a good way to do that), or forays into adjacent spaces like white-labeled cluster management. Working on building custom designs and consulting on custom…

> They own the ecosystem thanks to CUDA, Infiniband, NGC, NVLink,

No they do not. The article explains that Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are developing their own hardware and software for AI/HPC.

Google Gemini was not trained using CUDA or Nvidia hardware.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#20

Post by AlotOfReading »

schaefer wrote: post #7
scrlk wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Working on building custom designs and consulting on custom GPU projects would be helpful as well by helping monetize their existing design practice during slower markets. Apart from Nintendo, who has successfully partnered with Nvidia? Apple, Microsoft and Sony have all been burnt in the past.

Watch the Nvidia GTC keynote. The list of partners is extensive.

Being a partner on the GTC slidedecks isn't remotely good evidence that they haven't been burned by Nvidia.
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