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China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech

cleantechnica.com

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Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech

#11

Post by Teever »

weard_beard wrote: post #9
Teever wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I understand it SpaceX has launched 500 rockets and many of these rockets were reusable so the number of rockets that they've manufactured over the 25 years that they've been in business is far less than 500. If you take a look at page 8 of this pdf[0] you'll see that the wargames predict that hundreds of missiles will be used in the first few weeks of an engagement between China and the US over Taiwan. Page 10 wi…

I read your comment and the pdf and I guess my question is answered. “No, we did not consider asymmetric and possibly massively impactful scenarios like control of low earth orbit munitions deployed on a massive scale.”

I interpreted your question as asking if the US could use SpaceX's rocket manufacturing capacity to produce ICBMs that could be used to hit Chinese ships.

Now that I see that this was not what you're suggesting I don't think that two years is a sufficient time frame to build, test, and deploy the kinds of weapons that you're suggesting.

It seems like America is sleep walking into a horrible conflict with China and this combined with all of the soft power that America is losing in the past few months doesn't bode well for the outcome of this conflict.

Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech

#12

Post by hedora »

weard_beard wrote: post #9
Teever wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I understand it SpaceX has launched 500 rockets and many of these rockets were reusable so the number of rockets that they've manufactured over the 25 years that they've been in business is far less than 500. If you take a look at page 8 of this pdf[0] you'll see that the wargames predict that hundreds of missiles will be used in the first few weeks of an engagement between China and the US over Taiwan. Page 10 wi…

I read your comment and the pdf and I guess my question is answered. “No, we did not consider asymmetric and possibly massively impactful scenarios like control of low earth orbit munitions deployed on a massive scale.”

It’s not particularly asymmetric. China has ICBMS and is upwind from the US. It’s hard to imagine non-civilization-ending conflicts where dropping space rocks on China comes into play.

Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech

#13

Post by csense »

How do they know some entrepreneur won't buy a boatload of them, export them from China to France or Indonesia or wherever, then re-export them to the US?

Especially if said entrepreneur is working with (or an outright front for) US intelligence, so they're sophisticated enough at this game to run an Airtag detector over the cargo when they transfer it from the ship the Chinese know about to the one they don't.

Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech

#14

Post by namaria »

csense wrote: post #13

How do they know some entrepreneur won't buy a boatload of them, export them from China to France or Indonesia or wherever, then re-export them to the US? Especially if said entrepreneur is working with (or an outright front for) US intelligence, so they're sophisticated enough at this game to run an Airtag detector over the cargo when they transfer it from the ship the Chinese know about to the one they don't.

That is how Russia sells lots of its oil, how the US got titanium supplies for the SR-71 from Soviet Union and will most definitely happen. But it is also very inefficient and will drive up costs.

Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech

#15

Post by weard_beard »

hedora wrote: post #12
weard_beard wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read your comment and the pdf and I guess my question is answered. “No, we did not consider asymmetric and possibly massively impactful scenarios like control of low earth orbit munitions deployed on a massive scale.”

It’s not particularly asymmetric. China has ICBMS and is upwind from the US. It’s hard to imagine non-civilization-ending conflicts where dropping space rocks on China comes into play.

Imagine harder.

Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech

#16

Post by weard_beard »

Teever wrote: post #11
weard_beard wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read your comment and the pdf and I guess my question is answered. “No, we did not consider asymmetric and possibly massively impactful scenarios like control of low earth orbit munitions deployed on a massive scale.”

I interpreted your question as asking if the US could use SpaceX's rocket manufacturing capacity to produce ICBMs that could be used to hit Chinese ships. Now that I see that this was not what you're suggesting I don't think that two years is a sufficient time frame to build, test, and deploy the kinds of weapons that you're suggesting. It seems like America is sleep walking into a horrible conflict with China and th…

That’s where I’d start looking for advantage.

Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech

#19

Post by Teever »

weard_beard wrote: post #15
hedora wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not particularly asymmetric. China has ICBMS and is upwind from the US. It’s hard to imagine non-civilization-ending conflicts where dropping space rocks on China comes into play.

Imagine harder.

Can you describe in greater detail what you're imagining?

Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech

#20

Post by weard_beard »

Teever wrote: post #19
weard_beard wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine harder.

Can you describe in greater detail what you're imagining?

Not for free and not in the span of a post, no. I’d love to do it over 6 months for 5 million dollars with a team of 6
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