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Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

epoch.ai

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Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#11

Post by getnormality »

This article lost all credibility with me here:

> ...this means that only 20% of labor productivity growth in the US since 1988 has been driven by R&D spending! Capital deepening accounts for around half of labor productivity growth in this period...

This is like saying that Jeff Dean's net worth is attributable not to his programming skills, but to the capital deepening of his bank account. The authors are working with concepts at a level of abstraction where they've lost contact with what they're saying.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#12

Post by Swizec »

henry2023 wrote: post #5
techpineapple wrote: post #2

Does anyone else find techno-optimism really depressing? I guess one for the more common reason that it’s displacing humanity with technology, but the second reason is just you can’t get excited about a hype that is unlikely to manifest. It feels very ungrounded from tangible benefits to society.

Only when looking at this through our common understanding of how societies work. Broad automation of tasks can be great for society if and only if the product of that automation is not treated as some kind of private property. I’m not hyped on an automated future because I find it quite unlikely but if it were to happen it has the potential to be transforming beyond expectations.

> Broad automation of tasks can be great for society if and only if the product of that automation is not treated as some kind of private property.

Star Trek or Bladerunner? That’s a choice we can make.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#13

Post by jajko »

therein wrote: post #8
NAHWheatCracker wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea. Watch a sci-fi film - nifty gadgets, robots taking care of chores, and widespread spaceflight. Real life is some unreliable chat bots. Then there's the depressing practical stuff. AI being forced down our throats. AI as an excuse lay people off. AI as an excuse for massive data hoarding. AI flooding the internet, making it harder to find good content.

I find it extra surprising that people are advocating for transitioning to using AI while their proof of concept looks like this: do { resp = callAI(input); } while (!isOutputSane(resp) && attempts++ < MAX_RETRY)

Nobody sane and smart I know is advocating for AI now. All keep saying 'one day', 'soon' etc. Our megacorp very effectively blocked all of this and we don't have anything internal yet, but we are in specific market.

And basically all I saw so far was a snake oil from people trying to push it or benefit from it, even here. Trust me bro... well no, show me some hard facts and we can start building trust. Sure assistants are nice but thats about it.

Its just too flawed now to be dependable and reliable, it feels like typical 80/20 or 90/10 situation where inexperienced juniors are all over their head how future is now, and seniors just meh and go and do some work.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#14

Post by elzbardico »

Swizec wrote: post #12
henry2023 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only when looking at this through our common understanding of how societies work. Broad automation of tasks can be great for society if and only if the product of that automation is not treated as some kind of private property. I’m not hyped on an automated future because I find it quite unlikely but if it were to happen it has the potential to be transforming beyond expectations.

> Broad automation of tasks can be great for society if and only if the product of that automation is not treated as some kind of private property. Star Trek or Bladerunner? That’s a choice we can make.

No. Most of the time WE can't make this choice. It is imposed on us by the elites.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#15

Post by exe34 »

decGetAc wrote: post #7
api wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replacing human labor with technology is usually a wonderful thing if the gains are generally realized. It means less time spent in 'toil' and more time to pursue one's true interests and desires. The reason it feels depressing is that if recent history is any guide, 0.0001% of the human race will receive almost all the benefit. A tiny number of richer-than-rich will get even richer and everyone else will stay the sa…

Agreed,only the super rich will get cars err electricity err I mean refrigerators err I mean personal computers err I mean mobile devices To be fair I think there's a lot of truth in your statement in the short term (and arguably in the long). But in the 'long' term , it sure does look like revolutionary technology makes everyday peoples life better (I didn't even go into transportation or health care/life expectency…

How will you pay for the cars err electricity err I mean refrigerators err I mean personal computers err I mean mobile devices when you have no income?

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#16

Post by elzbardico »

api wrote: post #3
techpineapple wrote: post #2

Does anyone else find techno-optimism really depressing? I guess one for the more common reason that it’s displacing humanity with technology, but the second reason is just you can’t get excited about a hype that is unlikely to manifest. It feels very ungrounded from tangible benefits to society.

Replacing human labor with technology is usually a wonderful thing if the gains are generally realized. It means less time spent in 'toil' and more time to pursue one's true interests and desires. The reason it feels depressing is that if recent history is any guide, 0.0001% of the human race will receive almost all the benefit. A tiny number of richer-than-rich will get even richer and everyone else will stay the sa…

The rest (and most of us will see included on the rest category) will get soylent, if we are lucky.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#17

Post by mooreds »

If you haven't read this classic about technology deployment from 2015, it's worth a read.

https://reactionwheel.net/2015/10/the-deployment-age.html

Feels like we're still in the exploration phase of GenAI, but ML seems like it is in the deployment phase.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#18

Post by eikenberry »

api wrote: post #3
techpineapple wrote: post #2

Does anyone else find techno-optimism really depressing? I guess one for the more common reason that it’s displacing humanity with technology, but the second reason is just you can’t get excited about a hype that is unlikely to manifest. It feels very ungrounded from tangible benefits to society.

Replacing human labor with technology is usually a wonderful thing if the gains are generally realized. It means less time spent in 'toil' and more time to pursue one's true interests and desires. The reason it feels depressing is that if recent history is any guide, 0.0001% of the human race will receive almost all the benefit. A tiny number of richer-than-rich will get even richer and everyone else will stay the sa…

Recent history is a poor guide that will give you a highly skewed view and won't really help you anticipate and plan for the future. You need to look at real history to get perspective. You don't even have to go back very far to see an tiny group of richer-than-rich people that didn't retain their power, an economic loop where this all happened before.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#19

Post by zurfer »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #9

This is exactly correct technically and perfectly on the existing “paved path” of technology determinism. My company is actively in the process of demonstrating the “Learning machine” which is a Weiner style cybernetic system of systems It’s unquestionable at this point that machines will displace all human labor where labor efficiency is the key factor for investment/use. Start with transfer learning from existing h…

I think plenty of people are working on that, some unaware :P

Games for status will continue.

Consuming experiences will continue (experiences that require humans will be premium).

And in a good case, we will still have plenty of work to do to decide what to do (going to space, making earth sustainable, merging with machines, ...).

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#20

Post by jajko »

decGetAc wrote: post #7
api wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replacing human labor with technology is usually a wonderful thing if the gains are generally realized. It means less time spent in 'toil' and more time to pursue one's true interests and desires. The reason it feels depressing is that if recent history is any guide, 0.0001% of the human race will receive almost all the benefit. A tiny number of richer-than-rich will get even richer and everyone else will stay the sa…

Agreed,only the super rich will get cars err electricity err I mean refrigerators err I mean personal computers err I mean mobile devices To be fair I think there's a lot of truth in your statement in the short term (and arguably in the long). But in the 'long' term , it sure does look like revolutionary technology makes everyday peoples life better (I didn't even go into transportation or health care/life expectency…

There will be soon new type of stuff only for rich - clean air, safe healthy food, beautiful nature, stable climate location, safe from warfare... we are not heading for a rosy future.

Sure everybody can be addicted to some crappy social service on their phones, but that's not a mark of progress in 2025 nor definition of life fulfillment/happiness, some would say in contrary. Obesity was also for a long time mark of wealth (and in some 3rd world countries it still is), and now its a sign of low social status and failure for various reasons.

Btw life expectancy i starting to decline again in developed countries, its just 3rd world that has so much gap to cross that they still go up.

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