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Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

reuters.com

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Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#11

Post by Salgat »

jdlshore wrote: post #5
JKCalhoun wrote: post #2

Wild times we live in. Trying to explain to my adult daughter where to invest her retirement savings ... looking like foreign stocks (VXUS) are not a bad idea after all.

A balanced strategy is best. I use the advice in A Random Walk Down Wall Street, which is a mix of real estate (VGSLX), bonds (VBTLX), and stocks, with the stocks split 50/50 between US (VTSAX) and international (VTIAX and VEMAX). I was prepared to take a bath after seeing the news this past week, but I’m actually up a bit—VTSAX is down, but the others are all up.

The gains from VTSAX over the past 5 years are so high that it would have to permanently drop by 50% to match international indexes like VTIAX.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#12

Post by evolve2k »

blackeyeblitzar wrote: post #6

Sensationalist headline. The US market being down (temporarily) is a good thing for America - it lowers bond rates and makes it much easier to manage the out of control national debt. This is a good thing for investor confidence in the long term.

Whatever you need to tell yourself. For those of us outside the US many of us are tired of the antics. Most of the rest of the world is long tired of Americans shouting everyday that they are the best and they should come first.

Say it enough times and we’ll look for other more relational and reliable trading partners.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#13

Post by sQL_inject »

evolve2k wrote: post #12
blackeyeblitzar wrote: post #6

Sensationalist headline. The US market being down (temporarily) is a good thing for America - it lowers bond rates and makes it much easier to manage the out of control national debt. This is a good thing for investor confidence in the long term.

Whatever you need to tell yourself. For those of us outside the US many of us are tired of the antics. Most of the rest of the world is long tired of Americans shouting everyday that they are the best and they should come first. Say it enough times and we’ll look for other more relational and reliable trading partners.

There's nothing substantive about a comment like this. The US has dominated indices for decades and the amount of money those indices have generated non-US investors is huge. Belief in the US based indices domestically and abroad is still superior, just look at the numbers.

The US has a gargantuan debt problem to handle, and reciprocity in tariffs seems far from an 'antic.'

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#14

Post by pseudony »

sQL_inject wrote: post #13
evolve2k wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever you need to tell yourself. For those of us outside the US many of us are tired of the antics. Most of the rest of the world is long tired of Americans shouting everyday that they are the best and they should come first. Say it enough times and we’ll look for other more relational and reliable trading partners.

There's nothing substantive about a comment like this. The US has dominated indices for decades and the amount of money those indices have generated non-US investors is huge. Belief in the US based indices domestically and abroad is still superior, just look at the numbers. The US has a gargantuan debt problem to handle, and reciprocity in tariffs seems far from an 'antic.'

There is, actually. Instability where you win or lose based on which loony is next in driver's seat is not super appealing for folks on the outside, you know, those who get the stick.

WRT tariffs, both economists and more layman's explanations make it clear that, at the very, very least, the Trumpian view is out of touch with reality.

For example country A, having a massive trade deficit with country B, because you buy raw materials which you refine into products and sell to country C can absolutely be a good thing for country A - and it's very conceivable that imposing a tariff on the materials from B just undermines the profitable business in your country, as the margins from that industry is squeezed by the tariffs you imposed.

For an interesting walk through tariffs, subsidies and whatnot, see https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fSXGUGFncgk&pp=ygUPcGVydW4gdHJ... (Perun on trade wars).

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#15

Post by pjmlp »

adventured wrote: post #10
PebblesHD wrote: post #3

With the US seemingly entering a period of isolationist market settings, some portion of foreign investment is bound to be heading back out either to home markets or elsewhere international as those investors potentially deal with market altering policies such as tariffs etc that may make turning those investments back into products harder. What I’m curious about is how this will affect smaller regional markets such…

Quasi isolationist for four years. Any Democrat elected will immediately obliterate Trump's executive orders (including those that are trade related). One would have to believe Trump's politics will rule the US for the long-term (there is no reason to believe that).

Assuming elections will still be thing.

Look to the countries Trump worships.

If the population doesn't react during this year, it might be too late in four years.

In Portugal it took us 30 years, and elections were happening.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#16

Post by thecopy »

adventured wrote: post #9
danielhep wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure such a prediction is valid in a world post Pax Americana.

That post pax world isn't inbound anytime soon, despite the irrational hysteria going on right now. Trump has 3.x years remaining. People are acting like he's going to remain for decades. There is no next Trump, he has a unique hold over the MAGA base that was key to his election. For now post Pax America is merely a fantasy that reveals a lot about the people that think it's happening now (they're showing their pers…

Trump will go away at some point (hopefully he does not seek a 3rd term). However, i am concerned about the fact that the GOP has been mired in the MAGA culture for a decade now, and what that does to the people seeking membership and the people being promoted to leadership. When Trump leaves, the people which have been promoted and been successful in GOP under him still stays. For what virtues are you being promoted for in the GOP? The entire structure is corrupted.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#17

Post by thecopy »

adventured wrote: post #10
PebblesHD wrote: post #3

With the US seemingly entering a period of isolationist market settings, some portion of foreign investment is bound to be heading back out either to home markets or elsewhere international as those investors potentially deal with market altering policies such as tariffs etc that may make turning those investments back into products harder. What I’m curious about is how this will affect smaller regional markets such…

Quasi isolationist for four years. Any Democrat elected will immediately obliterate Trump's executive orders (including those that are trade related). One would have to believe Trump's politics will rule the US for the long-term (there is no reason to believe that).

>there is no reason to believe that

1. GOP has been MAGA for 10 years.

2. The electorate elected him again, even after being a felon, even after 6th Jan.

What is the reason to assume it _will_ change?

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#18

Post by DaedPsyker »

thecopy wrote: post #17
adventured wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quasi isolationist for four years. Any Democrat elected will immediately obliterate Trump's executive orders (including those that are trade related). One would have to believe Trump's politics will rule the US for the long-term (there is no reason to believe that).

>there is no reason to believe that 1. GOP has been MAGA for 10 years. 2. The electorate elected him again, even after being a felon, even after 6th Jan. What is the reason to assume it _will_ change?

I don't see MAGA surviving post Trump.

I'd say it will morph, and elements will remain in the republican party but not intact.

Trump is a huge magnetising force but without him, it doesn't really have anyone else. Sure people like Vance will try to further their own ambition but none of them will succeed in taking on the mantle and keeping it as the force is today.

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#19

Post by lovich »

adventured wrote: post #10
PebblesHD wrote: post #3

With the US seemingly entering a period of isolationist market settings, some portion of foreign investment is bound to be heading back out either to home markets or elsewhere international as those investors potentially deal with market altering policies such as tariffs etc that may make turning those investments back into products harder. What I’m curious about is how this will affect smaller regional markets such…

Quasi isolationist for four years. Any Democrat elected will immediately obliterate Trump's executive orders (including those that are trade related). One would have to believe Trump's politics will rule the US for the long-term (there is no reason to believe that).

We’re in table flipping mode in terms of what norms actually mean and you listed a whole bunch of things that are norms.

Nothings guaranteed anymore when the old order is being thrown out

Re: Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets

#20

Post by lovich »

blackeyeblitzar wrote: post #6

Sensationalist headline. The US market being down (temporarily) is a good thing for America - it lowers bond rates and makes it much easier to manage the out of control national debt. This is a good thing for investor confidence in the long term.

> The US market being down (temporarily) is a good thing for America - it lowers bond rates and makes it much easier to manage the out of control national debt. This is a good thing for investor confidence in the long term.

Can you stop lying to yourself and to our faces? How can you claim that a this is

1: temporary

2: if it is temporary this is a good thing because it will make debt repayments easier

3: (the part you may disagree with, but I’d give you the same consideration as someone telling me the sky was actually neon pink usually) national debt payments take longer to pan out than a “temporary” down market

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