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The Demoralization is just Beginning

geohot.github.io

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Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#11

Post by ryandamm »

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things.

-there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent without economic context.

But solution point 1 — brain drain the rest of the world — is an absolutely first rate policy. The fact that the US requires newly-minted PhDs educated here to get a different visa or leave is absolutely self-defeating. We should be welcoming skilled immigration from everywhere.

For my money, you’re better off reading Krugman, Brad Delong, and (my personal favorite) Michael Pettis. I’ll read Geohot when it’s about engineering or self driving cars.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#12

Post by nextos »

ViktorRay wrote: post #4

Steve Jobs told Obama something similar once. The idea was to provide worker visas to engineers who did well and graduated from good American universities. Basically give those workers a visa along with their diploma. Obama thought the idea was intriguing and mentioned it multiple times to his advisors. It never went anywhere though. Brain draining the rest of the world is one of the main reasons for America’s succes…

> The idea was to provide worker visas to engineers who did well and graduated from good American universities

Some EU countries offer scholarships to attract good foreign undergrads and grad students to their universities. The whole point is that they stay afterwards, and they try really hard to keep them. It's been proven to be quite economically profitable, see e.g. [1]. I've never understood what's the point of attracting good students if you don't want to keep them later on, unless you have overcapacity and sell education services. But that would not make sense for top universities where there is a fierce competition for spots.

[1] https://www.dtu.dk/english/newsarchive/2022/11/udenlandske-s...

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#13

Post by gjsman-1000 »

ryandamm wrote: post #11

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

“there is more to an economy than manufacturing”

Not really, no. If China cut off the US, for any reason, who gets hurt more? Who has a bigger house of cards to collapse? Who will have a harder time rebuilding?

If the next leader is bolder than Xi, and is of the same kind that once killed tens of millions of people, losing an arm and a leg to behead an enemy might be a viable strategy.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#14

Post by trhway »

EmpireoftheSun wrote: post #9
jfengel wrote: post #6

For his solutions: "Brain drain" is what we had been doing for the past 80 years or so. It worked great. We're specifically driving people away now. "Gold standard" is an idea every sane economist rejected decades ago.

I dont think Brin Drain is a win-win outcome in a globalized world. USA benefits but at expense of mostly poor nations sending their elite talent.

would this elite talent be that productive there like it is here? I don't think so. I think moving talent to the most productive environment is the win for the civilization as a whole.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#15

Post by nextos »

EmpireoftheSun wrote: post #9
jfengel wrote: post #6

For his solutions: "Brain drain" is what we had been doing for the past 80 years or so. It worked great. We're specifically driving people away now. "Gold standard" is an idea every sane economist rejected decades ago.

I dont think Brin Drain is a win-win outcome in a globalized world. USA benefits but at expense of mostly poor nations sending their elite talent.

Since the host country rarely retains the majority of the students, it can be a win-win. Some go back home with a good education and fresh ideas.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#16

Post by ryandamm »

coliveira wrote: post #10

The big mistake of this kind of analysis is to assume that it depends only on the desires of the US. But other countries have agency too, they can also decide to be first class economies. The current status of China is due to its focus on achieving greatness. There's not much that the US could or can do to derail China from its achievements. Let's stop trying to block other countries and step up to work harder.

China has major structural weaknesses in its economy that are currently overshadowed by the US cr*pping its own and its allies’ pants.

Specifically: there is not much of a home grown consumer economy; they have driven growth too heavily on exports and infrastructure build, leading to a massive overhang in building, a housing bubble that is teetering dangerously close to unwinding, and a major shortage of domestic consumer demand.

The Chinese people should be richer; the fact that they export a lot is a symptom of the failure to build up the household sector so domestic demand partly balances investment.

Again, read Michael Pettis’s “China Financial Markets” blog at the Carnegie Endowment:

https://carnegieendowment.org/china-financial-markets

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#17

Post by janalsncm »

One thing that China does that I’d like to see more of (not that we don’t do it) are “wish lists” for products which use strategic technologies. So in their AI plan, they specifically call out applications for AI which can improve their cities like traffic light optimization.

It’s like a publicly funded version of YC’s call for startups. The difference is in the public sector the answer to “how do you make money” doesn’t have to be sell to a business/sell to consumers/run ads.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#19

Post by tmn »

coliveira wrote: post #10

The big mistake of this kind of analysis is to assume that it depends only on the desires of the US. But other countries have agency too, they can also decide to be first class economies. The current status of China is due to its focus on achieving greatness. There's not much that the US could or can do to derail China from its achievements. Let's stop trying to block other countries and step up to work harder.

I’m not following your critique in relation to the article. It seems to encompass your final line. Step up and work harder. No mention of blocking other countries.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#20

Post by ryandamm »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #13
ryandamm wrote: post #11

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

“there is more to an economy than manufacturing” Not really, no. If China cut off the US, for any reason, who gets hurt more? Who has a bigger house of cards to collapse? Who will have a harder time rebuilding? If the next leader is bolder than Xi, and is of the same kind that once killed tens of millions of people, losing an arm and a leg to behead an enemy might be a viable strategy.

Arguing that manufacturing is strategic is not the same thing as manufacturing being “all that matters in an economy.”

There’s a logical fallacy in your rebuttal.

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