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Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

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Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#11

If this graph is the evidence for "Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked" isn't it also the evidence proving "global car sales have peaked"?

Maybe, but not as strong. Combustion is down or flat every year since '16. Aggregate numbers haven't regained their peak, but are up and down.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#12
post #5

What's strange to me is according to the graph it's not just combustion engine cars that peaked, cars overall more or less did too, in the graph. Are trucks like the F150 not being captured by this data? How literal is "cars"?

This is exactly the problem. It's a game in the existing market without any additional growth.

it's not strange, jeff bezos can buy dozens of yachts, but most people will only buy 1 car for several years

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#13

If this graph is the evidence for "Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked" isn't it also the evidence proving "global car sales have peaked"?

Maybe. Less clear evidence of that.

Total cars down by 5-6%, and lower than 6 of the previous 13 years.

Combustion cars down by 24%, and lower than 12 of the previous 13 years.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#14
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If US allows these cheap electric cars for at least 2-3 years, I would say it would be great for everybody except car companies and Elon.

Unfortunately, the US would rather subject its consumers to legacy auto and Tesla prices and lack of competition vs enabling imports to drive down domestic prices to improve affordability. Poor policy is unfortunate.

And with the rest of the world covering to electric, we can expect negative economies of scale alongside the financial problems of economic contraction for combustion car makers.

The coal companies started going bankrupt long before the end of coal. (hell it's still not over...) Simply because investors could see that it's a shrinking industry, making it impossible to get financing for new plants, mines, etc.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#15
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But I repeat myself, apologies to Twain Downhill = good, momentum is unstoppable, nothing stops the electrification transition, we’re simply arguing time horizon now; China will be the clean energy and mobility manufacturer to the world. (50% of car sales in China in 2024 were battery electric or plug in hybrid)

If US allows these cheap electric cars for at least 2-3 years, I would say it would be great for everybody except car companies and Elon.

UAW and their >500k members might disagree

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#16

If this graph is the evidence for "Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked" isn't it also the evidence proving "global car sales have peaked"?

It does not get into the "why", but I realize that is hard to determine.

My question is, are these sales for brand new cars or does it include used cars also ?

I know my days of buying brand new ended years ago due to how expensive new cars are. My current car (bought used) is from 2007 and if I have to buy another, it will be used.

So I have to wonder, are people avoiding buying new due to the expense. That could point to a reason. Would be interesting to see charts based upon Country or group of countries.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#18
post #12
post #5

What's strange to me is according to the graph it's not just combustion engine cars that peaked, cars overall more or less did too, in the graph. Are trucks like the F150 not being captured by this data? How literal is "cars"?

This is exactly the problem. It's a game in the existing market without any additional growth. it's not strange, jeff bezos can buy dozens of yachts, but most people will only buy 1 car for several years

That doesn't make any sense. There are 10s of millions of newly middle class consumers in Asia.
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