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GLP-1 drugs: An economic disruptor? (2024)

wildfirelabs.substack.com

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Re: GLP-1 drugs: An economic disruptor? (2024)

#11

Post by dumbfounder »

macintux wrote: post #3

Interesting, but I’m not sure I buy it. I certainly don’t think Simon is preparing for this massive economic shift; I think they’re reacting to an existing trend. > America's largest mall operator, Simon Property Group, is converting anchor stores into medical centers and wellness spaces. They're doing this because they recognize the writing on the wall. Malls have been dying for years, and COVID felt like the nail i…

Malls around DC are crazier than ever. But I am not sure if people are spending money or not.

Re: GLP-1 drugs: An economic disruptor? (2024)

#12

Post by 6stringmerc »

Access to impulse reduction via medication is problematic and will be isolated in the US to those who, frankly speaking, probably do not spend at a meaningful rate compared to their asset (wealth) standing. It’s a brilliant observation though that if “something got in the water supply” and en masse consumer behavior changed, then absolutely the ripple would be astounding to watch. I still recall standing in a field outside Alliance airport watching Amazon cargo jets landing at basically 30 minute intervals and thinking “all that stuff and this system doesn’t make economic sense” and I for one eagerly await a…let’s just call it…recalibration.

Re: GLP-1 drugs: An economic disruptor? (2024)

#13

Post by mlhpdx »

macintux wrote: post #3

Interesting, but I’m not sure I buy it. I certainly don’t think Simon is preparing for this massive economic shift; I think they’re reacting to an existing trend. > America's largest mall operator, Simon Property Group, is converting anchor stores into medical centers and wellness spaces. They're doing this because they recognize the writing on the wall. Malls have been dying for years, and COVID felt like the nail i…

The large scale economic evidence in the article is as easily attributed to population growth and aging.

Re: GLP-1 drugs: An economic disruptor? (2024)

#14

Post by aljgz »

> When companies like Google see their healthcare costs drop by $12,000 per employee annually and productivity increase by 25%, we observe a restructuring of corporate America that makes remote work a minor adjustment.

In my entire office, there's one overweight person that I know. Out of thousands of employees. There could be more, and other cities might be different, but you get the idea.

The author intentionally or mistakenly applies some numbers to whole populations.

Keep chaining impacts while eliminating small coefficients, your end result will be off by more than a few orders of magnitude.

EDIT: I need to be more clear about my point: My BigTech office does not represent my country stats: Canada has a 26% obesity and 36% overweight adult population. Just taking those numbers, applying them to all populations is wrong.

The analysis is wrong in other subtle but important ways as well. A 25% increase in performance of an allegedly low performing group of a company would not increase the overall company's efficency as much.

Re: GLP-1 drugs: An economic disruptor? (2024)

#16

Post by Trasmatta »

cm2187 wrote: post #10
codr7 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm more worried about longer term side effects. This sounds a lot like numbing "bad" feelings to me; there's no way to selectively numb, it's all or nothing. Impulsivity isn't all bad.

As opposed to the good long term effects of being obese?

There are a lot of people who are not obese that are taking these drugs. That might be where the fear is coming from.

Re: GLP-1 drugs: An economic disruptor? (2024)

#17

Post by patrickhogan1 »

Jevons paradox applied to healthy people vs unhealthy. Healthy people create more demand not less.

You order out you just order healthier. Healthier food is more expensive than junk food.

You buy an expensive bike. More clothes.

Healthcare is still expensive because people get older and older people need more care.

Re: GLP-1 drugs: An economic disruptor? (2024)

#18

Post by m3kw9 »

Looks like this is a worse case/best case scenario, rarely it will happen like that. There will be some effect but if people aren’t eating muffins, they are eating power balls. Not drinking beer, drinking tea. I would ear mark a 5-10% of that effect max, he’s going for 100%

Re: GLP-1 drugs: An economic disruptor? (2024)

#19

Post by cj »

I started Tirzepatide 3-4 weeks ago. (Mostly as an experiment to understand the hype around GLP's... I don't have diabetes and only very slightly overweight at 20% body fat). Even at the lowest 2.5mg starter dose which you're only allowed to stay on for 1 month:

- Extreme appetite suppression to the point where I've started calorie counting specifically to make sure that I'm eating enough. It's incredibly easy to forget to eat.

- No more feelings of hunger. At all. This is somewhat depressing. Eating is no longer enjoyable and feels like a chore. I woke up hungry for the first time in a while a couple days ago and was excited - jumped out of bed and ran to eat something just for the pure joy of it. I've only felt that a few times in the past few weeks, compared to every day off the drug.

- I completely stopped drinking. Have you ever been to a bar after eating a big meal at a restaurant, and had trouble drinking because you were too full from your meal? That's how I feel all the time. 1 or 2 beers and it becomes uncomfortable to have anymore.

- Normally I go grocery shopping and within 3-4 days, all the "good stuff" (snacks) I bought are eaten. Now, since I stopped snacking and eating much less, groceries simply last way longer. - My morning starbucks routine has changed from 2 food items to just 1, which alone saves me $200/mo (sorry starbucks).

- Haven't noticed anything regarding impulse control outside of food. No anecdata to share on that point...

After a few weeks on the drug, I'm 100% convinced that once this drug is widely available and cheap... being overweight will be a choice (choosing not to take the drug).

The most important aspect of the drug that makes it work so well is it forces you to change your habits, no will power required. It also punishes you for bad eating habits. (That late night trip to McDonalds will have you feeling like shit the next day).

I'm the kind of person that used to be able to order just about anything on a restaurant menu and clean my plate completely. Now I simply can't do that. It's actually kind of embarrassing being at a restaurant with friends and being completely uninterested in the food.

Re: GLP-1 drugs: An economic disruptor? (2024)

#20

Post by smt88 »

Trasmatta wrote: post #16
cm2187 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As opposed to the good long term effects of being obese?

There are a lot of people who are not obese that are taking these drugs. That might be where the fear is coming from.

Something like 70% of the US is overweight, so there actually aren't as many people who aren't experiencing negative health effects from being overweight or obese as you think
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