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The Job Market Is Frozen

theatlantic.com

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Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#11

Post by Spooky23 »

Duh. Between the chaos in Washington and the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater) we’re going to see a big crash, probably this year.

Tesla and Nvidia are both huge components of the overall market cap and drive alot of the yields in the last year or two. You’re one Elon scandal or Nvidia earnings miss away from a really bad day.

Healthcare is the other wildcard. For the last decade, medical practices of all kinds have consolidated into big regional networks that are interconnected. Many of them have cash flow challenges and the fucking around with Medicare/medicaid will drive some to insolvency. My one friend in the space is planning on 30% rif in some scenarios.

Be smart. Heads down at work and start unwinding your long positions and increasing cash holdings.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#12

Post by smnrchrds »

meltyness wrote: post #8
angry_moose wrote: post #7

If you want data on it; the St Louis Fed has some really good stats for job postings on Indeed in various sectors going back to 2020. They're rough in a lot of industries: IT Operations and Help Desk: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPITOPHE Software Development: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE Banking and Finance: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPBAFI Hospitality and Tour…

I disagree on the quality. Google trends reflects a general decline of Indeed popularity, which could lead to fewer postings. However yeah, places aren't really hiring. Absurdly gerrymandered roles and specific tech stacks point to probably more backrubs than hiring. Which is fine, if you want crony mcauthorized knuckledragger, take him, your product, your marketing, your teams, your contracts, and your whole history…

In addition to being a job board, Indeed is a job aggregator. It scoops up listings from job boards and company websites and allows searching through them, with links to the original listing.

It is not perfect—it misses many postings across the web. But as long as its miss rate hasn't gotten much worse over the past few years, the data presented above is still valid.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#13

Post by re-thc »

angry_moose wrote: post #7

If you want data on it; the St Louis Fed has some really good stats for job postings on Indeed in various sectors going back to 2020. They're rough in a lot of industries: IT Operations and Help Desk: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPITOPHE Software Development: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE Banking and Finance: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPBAFI Hospitality and Tour…

Great info but I feel it's missing an important piece i.e. the number of layoffs. The issue is never the number of jobs posted but the ratio of job searchers to jobs.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#14

Post by araes »

Terr_ wrote: post #6

> Kyle M. K., a talent-strategy adviser at Indeed, told me. “Survive Until ’25” became an unofficial rallying cry for businesses across the country. All kinds of business? AFAIK that saying is/was specific to commercial real-estate, where nobody wants to admit that the valuation of the property might have gone down, and they're trying to delay and obscure it for long enough that they can pretend it never happened.

> “Survive Until ’25”

That was the exact quote in the entire games industry last year. [1][2] The tail end of the 2023 layoffs really hit the industry hard and then it never really recovered afterward. [3]

[1] https://www.ign.com/articles/survive-til-25-how-game-studios...

[2] https://www.gamesindustry.biz/how-to-survive-until-2025-in-t...

[3] https://www.ign.com/articles/game-developers-mass-layoffs-hu...

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#15

Post by lukev »

Spooky23 wrote: post #11

Duh. Between the chaos in Washington and the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater) we’re going to see a big crash, probably this year. Tesla and Nvidia are both huge components of the overall market cap and drive alot of the yields in the last year or two. You’re one Elon scandal or Nvidia earnings miss away from a really bad day. Healthcare is the other wildcard. For the last decade, medic…

Just curious, what kind of Elon scandal do you think could move the needle at this point? Anyone capable and willing to observe his behavior has probably already acted on it.

What lines are left to cross?

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#18

Post by YZF »

Spooky23 wrote: post #11

Duh. Between the chaos in Washington and the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater) we’re going to see a big crash, probably this year. Tesla and Nvidia are both huge components of the overall market cap and drive alot of the yields in the last year or two. You’re one Elon scandal or Nvidia earnings miss away from a really bad day. Healthcare is the other wildcard. For the last decade, medic…

It's really hard to time selling and buying back even if you're right and a crash is imminent. On the other hand, other than the great depression, most crashes recover fairly quickly (a few years). If you're invested for the long term then likely moving to cash is the losing move. Cash also loses to inflation.

My take is make a few adjustments on the margins to make your gut happier. If you scored you're a little ahead of the index. If you messed up you're not far behind.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#19

Post by YZF »

1970-01-01 wrote: post #5

Employers are afraid to take new hires in unprecedented and unpredictable times. It's not going to get better until the daily news becomes boring again.

I think what makes this better is the emergence of new competitive business areas. E.g. AI companies are fighting for talent because they want to grow fast and beat the competition. Established companies sitting on a revenue stream and piles of cash without a good idea of where to go don't need more people. It's companies chasing growth that hire like there's no tomorrow.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#20

Post by YZF »

pipeline_peak wrote: post #16

As a software dev should I even bother switching jobs? I really can’t stand my current one, but articles like this and ones about AI are pretty demotivating.

You do you. If you can't stand your current job then look for a new one while doing your best at the current one. There are jobs out there and it's much easier to find a job while you have a job. Are you learning? Can you pivot a bit with your current employer to do something more interesting? Are you paid well?

Ignore the articles. In the worst times of the dot com bubble burst you could still find interesting jobs. The aggregate is the aggregate and you are you. These are somewhat weird times but the companies are piling in money and will need to find ways to put it to work. AI not taking our jobs any time soon.

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