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Will AI take web developer jobs?

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Re: Will AI take web developer jobs?

#11

Post by askonomm »

crote wrote: post #8

It's missing one critical point: if AI makes a good developer 10% more productive, the industry needs 10% less developers to achieve the same output. You're not getting replaced by AI. You're getting replaced by a coworker using AI. It doesn't matter how poorly AI performs at any remotely complicated task, what matters is how many developer-hours it saves by not having to manually write as much boilerplate.

So far more efficient development tools have resulted in more tech companies / products being created, resulting in a increase in net total developers needed. The idea that 10% more efficient devs would mean less devs needed assumes that we're living on a flat line of productivity and invention, which is simply not true.

Re: Will AI take web developer jobs?

#12

Post by MyOutfitIsVague »

TheMongoose wrote: post #4
cratermoon wrote: post #2

AI will not take anyone's jobs. Executives looking to juice the value of their stock portfolio and cut expenses to create a better revenue story for the companies they run will fire people and attempt to smear "AI" all over their operations.

I, for one, look forward to seeing the mess that results from the C-Suite lemmings all marching off the LLM cliff with their companies in tow.

It's going to look similar to the trend of off-shoring developer jobs to the lowest bidder over seas. I made my career cleaning up the webs of technical debt that many companies accrued.

LLM code assistants in the hands of a skilled developer are a productivity multiplier. In the hands of a novice, they bloom technical debt like cancer. Expect rapid cost cutting, followed in about a year or two my panicked recruiting of expensive contractors to fix the unmaintainable mess, making the whole endeavor a loss (which looked good enough on the books for enough time to earn raises and bonuses for managers).

Re: Will AI take web developer jobs?

#14

Post by aprilthird2021 »

crote wrote: post #8

It's missing one critical point: if AI makes a good developer 10% more productive, the industry needs 10% less developers to achieve the same output. You're not getting replaced by AI. You're getting replaced by a coworker using AI. It doesn't matter how poorly AI performs at any remotely complicated task, what matters is how many developer-hours it saves by not having to manually write as much boilerplate.

This is missing one critical fact. The economy and the web are not zero sum games or pies such that if one person has a piece another cannot have it.

Economies can grow and the output of economies can grow and thus the number of jobs can grow

Re: Will AI take web developer jobs?

#16

Post by risyachka »

Madmallard wrote: post #9

AI isn't taking American jobs. Foreign developer agencies utilizing AI and being paid a fraction of what American employees are being paid are taking American jobs.

Outsourcing literally in 100% cases results in shitty product. Every single time.

So when some company outsources its development it is always good news - it can be pretty easily crushed with in-house dev team from a competitor.

Re: Will AI take web developer jobs?

#17

Post by rollcat »

crote wrote: post #8

It's missing one critical point: if AI makes a good developer 10% more productive, the industry needs 10% less developers to achieve the same output. You're not getting replaced by AI. You're getting replaced by a coworker using AI. It doesn't matter how poorly AI performs at any remotely complicated task, what matters is how many developer-hours it saves by not having to manually write as much boilerplate.

> You're not getting replaced by AI. You're getting replaced by a coworker using AI.

How long until people realise AI cannot take responsibility? Sure, that coworker can do 10% more coding. But can they handle 10% increase in mental workload to juggle all the hard problems? What about 20%? At what point do people start cracking?

Re: Will AI take web developer jobs?

#19

Post by SunlitCat »

journal wrote: post #5

GPT4o-mini, I asked it to refactor my class to a property with backing field and trim. It did that, but it also lost my Email property in the process. I asked it about it and it apologized and gave it back. Same with GPT4o.

Yes! Although not really funny (if you want to use ChatGPT to do some real work), it's kinda cute how it always apologizes and says sorry if you remark that it lost something you were sure you included in your prompt. :)

Personally, I would like all my personal interaction with people going like that. Life would be totally easier!

Re: Will AI take web developer jobs?

#20

Post by MyOutfitIsVague »

crote wrote: post #8

It's missing one critical point: if AI makes a good developer 10% more productive, the industry needs 10% less developers to achieve the same output. You're not getting replaced by AI. You're getting replaced by a coworker using AI. It doesn't matter how poorly AI performs at any remotely complicated task, what matters is how many developer-hours it saves by not having to manually write as much boilerplate.

My company has had a backlog thousands of developer-hours long for years. Maybe eventually somebody will get fired because we're not needed, but the LLM would have to actually 10x our productivity for us to get through the backlog in a year.
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