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Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

paulgraham.com

11–20 of 237 posts

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#12
post #9

What is this telling us about the stuff he writes with full conviction today?

That nobody can predict the future?

However, there are people that have the intellect and the information to do it better than others.

Btw, it contains stuff like this "The third cause of Microsoft's death was broadband Internet. Anyone who cares can have fast Internet access now. And the bigger the pipe to the server, the less you need the desktop.". Microsoft (or Satya did) also predicted the future, or read this post, and refocused (to online service such as MS365). There still correct, insightful stuff in this post.

There is also "They still think they can write software in house. Maybe they can, by the standards of the desktop world. But that world ended a few years ago." also radically different now they have GitHub and WSL, etc

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#14
> Their [n.b Apple's] victory is so complete that I'm now surprised when I come across a computer running Windows. Nearly all the people we fund at Y Combinator use Apple laptops

So nearly all of the (relatively) very few people that are funded by YC have Apple and that's proof of Apple's complete victory over a dead MS. In a year when MS was still on an upward trend, growing by 20% market cap to become double that of Apple.

Reading rich people's blogs reminds me every time that there's a reason wealth is also called "fortune". Because it's more about luck than anything else. And by luck I mean a family golden nugget, or lucky first investment, or both. A superpower that allows one to fail many times and still be able to try again until they hit the next fortune. Most people in the world can't even afford to try. Most of the rest can't afford to fail.

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#16
post #9

What is this telling us about the stuff he writes with full conviction today?

It tells us that he’s only human. That’s what fans of him will say and they’re right.

The problem is his fans subconsciously treat Paul graham as if he’s more right and more wise than a normal human. Makes sense given where we are. This incubator is founded by him so there’s a bit of that irrational hero worship there.

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#18
post #9

What is this telling us about the stuff he writes with full conviction today?

That just because someone is a plutocrat doesn't make them experts in all things. We should not idolize celebrities and not accept their hot takes wholesale. Be wary of ultracrepidarians.

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#19
Not only is Microsoft not dead, they're almost never included in the "Big Tech" that gets shouted about and cursed. Which is weird, Microsoft makes an OS that has a 90+% desktop share, no real competitors, and pretty much extract money at will for its software.

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#20
Given their trajectory at the time, they probably would be.

Right now they're embracing open source and Linux, which has proven to be a very good idea.

I'm still not convinced.

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