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An analysis of DeepSeek's R1-Zero and R1

arcprize.org

11–20 of 280 posts

Re: An analysis of DeepSeek's R1-Zero and R1

#11
Fascinating. R1 really punches above its weight with respect to cost-per-token.

As the article alluded to at the end, my thoughts immediately go to using R1 as a data generator for complex problems, since we have many examples of successful distillation into smaller models on well-defined tasks.

Re: An analysis of DeepSeek's R1-Zero and R1

#12
post #5

The claim is that this removes the human bottleneck (aka SFT or supervised fine tuning) on domains with a verifiable reward. Critically, this verifiable reward is extremely hard to pin down in nearly all domains besides mathematics and computer science.

By verifiable do they mean it in the complexity theory P/NP sense of the word?

They mean that the solutions can be verified to be correct in a binary sense. E.g. a coding solution passes all the unit tests vs writing poetry.

Re: An analysis of DeepSeek's R1-Zero and R1

#13
post #5

The claim is that this removes the human bottleneck (aka SFT or supervised fine tuning) on domains with a verifiable reward. Critically, this verifiable reward is extremely hard to pin down in nearly all domains besides mathematics and computer science.

By verifiable do they mean it in the complexity theory P/NP sense of the word?

As in there's an objective truth that can be determined by a computer. E.g. whether code compiles, whether a unit test passes, whether the answer given to a mathematical question like 3+5 is correct. Many other fields have no objective truth (like art or creative writing), or objective truth requires measurement of the physical world (although if the world can be simulated accurately enough for the problem class at hand, then sufficient training data can still be generated by a computer).

Re: An analysis of DeepSeek's R1-Zero and R1

#14
post #8

The idea that a lot of compute is moving towards inference has a huge consequence for the current "AI investments". This is bad news for NVDA particularly. The inference focused solutions have better economics than paying NVDA those huge margins (e.g. Grog)

Nvidia can actually charge larger margins if inference compute goes down. It would enable them to manufacture more units of smaller GPUs using inferior and cheaper silicon, all of which would increase the profits per unit sold as well as the number of units they can manufacture.

The industry has to find a way to separate itself from Nvidia's GPGPU technology if they want to stop being gouged. The issue is that nobody, not Apple, not AMD, not Intel, has been treating Nvidia's hardware as a serious threat.

Re: An analysis of DeepSeek's R1-Zero and R1

#15
post #8

The idea that a lot of compute is moving towards inference has a huge consequence for the current "AI investments". This is bad news for NVDA particularly. The inference focused solutions have better economics than paying NVDA those huge margins (e.g. Grog)

So far it's moving towards test time compute true, but reasoning models are still far too large to be done on the edge.

Re: An analysis of DeepSeek's R1-Zero and R1

#18
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By verifiable do they mean it in the complexity theory P/NP sense of the word?

As in there's an objective truth that can be determined by a computer. E.g. whether code compiles, whether a unit test passes, whether the answer given to a mathematical question like 3+5 is correct. Many other fields have no objective truth (like art or creative writing), or objective truth requires measurement of the physical world (although if the world can be simulated accurately enough for the problem class at h…

Isn't "code compiles" an insufficient criteria?

e.g you would need to prove that for all inputs the code produces the correct output which would in turn make the problem way more complex

Re: An analysis of DeepSeek's R1-Zero and R1

#19
post #9

I predict that the future of LLM's when it comes to coding and software creation is in "custom individually tailored apps". Imagine telling an AI agent what app you want, the requirements and all that and it just builds everything needed from backend to frontend, asks for your input on how things should work, clarifying questions etc. It tests the software by compiling and running it reading errors and failed tests a…

It doesn't need to write tests: it can just use the application and figure out if it works.

That's going to be much slower and more expensive than writing tests because image/video processing is slower and more expensive than writing tests. And because of lag in using the UI (and re-building the whole application from scratch after every change to test again).

Re: An analysis of DeepSeek's R1-Zero and R1

#20
"The o3 system demonstrates the first practical, general implementation of a computer adapting to novel unseen problems"

Yet, they said when it was announced:

"OpenAI shared they trained the o3 we tested on 75% of the Public Training set. They have not shared more details. We have not yet tested the ARC-untrained model to understand how much of the performance is due to ARC-AGI data."

These two statements are completely opposed. I can't take seriously anything this article says about o3.

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