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Trump to impose 25% to 100% tariffs on Taiwan-made chips, impacting TSMC

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Re: Trump to impose 25% to 100% tariffs on Taiwan-made chips, impacting TSMC

#11

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Tadpole9181 wrote: post #3

Someone talk me down here, genuinely. Combine this with the other tariffs, killing green manufacturing and the chips act and infrastructure bills, threatening our allies, a freeze on all federal grants and loans (a couple hours ago, if you aren't keeping up), etc... how does this not result in a total collapse of the US economy? Tech is a significant portion of our market. How could destroying our ability to source t…

> how does this not result in a total collapse of the US economy?

In the long term, it does. It's crazy to read a history of tariffs and conclude that raising tariffs on everyone, everthing and everywhere doesn't hurt you. But in the short term, that demand must be sated, and that disruption creates opportunities.

> How could destroying our ability to source the most advanced hardware

It won't. Taiwan depends on us. They'll cave and we'll get a short-term win. What it also does is create a strategic imperative for Taiwan to balance its dependence on America. Those chickens, unfortunately, won't come home to roost for years.

Re: Trump to impose 25% to 100% tariffs on Taiwan-made chips, impacting TSMC

#12

Post by JumpCrisscross »

ggm wrote: post #2

Isn't this inviting a rapprochement with the mainland? Not trying to be over dramatic about it, but given there is a persisting strand of belief inside the Taiwanese political community that unification ON THEIR TERMS is a thing, I would think at this point an unreliable US partner, who asks your principle worldwide income stream to relocate is .. not the friend you hoped for. The writing was on the wall when "make s…

> wonder if the US government will next ask ASML holding to also open plants inside the continental USA

ASML's supply chain is critically linked to U.S. suppliers. (EUV was jointly developed between Americans and Europeans.)

Re: Trump to impose 25% to 100% tariffs on Taiwan-made chips, impacting TSMC

#13

Post by ggm »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #12
ggm wrote: post #2

Isn't this inviting a rapprochement with the mainland? Not trying to be over dramatic about it, but given there is a persisting strand of belief inside the Taiwanese political community that unification ON THEIR TERMS is a thing, I would think at this point an unreliable US partner, who asks your principle worldwide income stream to relocate is .. not the friend you hoped for. The writing was on the wall when "make s…

> wonder if the US government will next ask ASML holding to also open plants inside the continental USA ASML's supply chain is critically linked to U.S. suppliers. (EUV was jointly developed between Americans and Europeans.)

One of those times fate sharing may be net beneficial.

Re: Trump to impose 25% to 100% tariffs on Taiwan-made chips, impacting TSMC

#14

Post by mytailorisrich »

ggm wrote: post #2

Isn't this inviting a rapprochement with the mainland? Not trying to be over dramatic about it, but given there is a persisting strand of belief inside the Taiwanese political community that unification ON THEIR TERMS is a thing, I would think at this point an unreliable US partner, who asks your principle worldwide income stream to relocate is .. not the friend you hoped for. The writing was on the wall when "make s…

[flagged]

Re: Trump to impose 25% to 100% tariffs on Taiwan-made chips, impacting TSMC

#15

Post by fabian2k »

Tadpole9181 wrote: post #3

Someone talk me down here, genuinely. Combine this with the other tariffs, killing green manufacturing and the chips act and infrastructure bills, threatening our allies, a freeze on all federal grants and loans (a couple hours ago, if you aren't keeping up), etc... how does this not result in a total collapse of the US economy? Tech is a significant portion of our market. How could destroying our ability to source t…

Part of this might be bluffing or just for show, so we don't know if Trump will follow through on these tariffs. Though the uncertainty alone this introduces could have serious effects as companies might avoid investments that Trump could blow up at any moment.

The grant freezes are just outright insane, how bad this will get depends on how long they last. The slight silver lining is that this order might just be so extreme that it'll fail and be overturned. This is not a carefully planned attack on the impoundment control act but they just flipped the table entirely.

Your best chance is that Trump might listen to the billionaire buddies that would lose money here instead of those that just want to see the government burn.

Re: Trump to impose 25% to 100% tariffs on Taiwan-made chips, impacting TSMC

#17

Post by nonethewiser »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #11
Tadpole9181 wrote: post #3

Someone talk me down here, genuinely. Combine this with the other tariffs, killing green manufacturing and the chips act and infrastructure bills, threatening our allies, a freeze on all federal grants and loans (a couple hours ago, if you aren't keeping up), etc... how does this not result in a total collapse of the US economy? Tech is a significant portion of our market. How could destroying our ability to source t…

> how does this not result in a total collapse of the US economy? In the long term, it does. It's crazy to read a history of tariffs and conclude that raising tariffs on everyone, everthing and everywhere doesn't hurt you. But in the short term, that demand must be sated, and that disruption creates opportunities. > How could destroying our ability to source the most advanced hardware It won't. Taiwan depends on us.…

> In the long term, it does. It's crazy to read a history of tariffs and conclude that raising tariffs on everyone, everthing and everywhere doesn't hurt you. But in the short term, that demand must be sated, and that disruption creates opportunities.

Actually its the opposite. In the long term it incentivizes manufacturing chips in the US. Domestic manufacturing has bipartisan support (see Biden's CHIPS bill) and obvious nation security implications. That's not to say tariffs are the right solution but the end goal is good and uncontroversial.

It creates economic chaos in the short term because the supply of domestic chips is relatively low and the cost of foreign chips will increase dramatically. This will normalize over time as domestic production ramps up.

Re: Trump to impose 25% to 100% tariffs on Taiwan-made chips, impacting TSMC

#19

Post by alec_irl »

nonethewiser wrote: post #17
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> how does this not result in a total collapse of the US economy? In the long term, it does. It's crazy to read a history of tariffs and conclude that raising tariffs on everyone, everthing and everywhere doesn't hurt you. But in the short term, that demand must be sated, and that disruption creates opportunities. > How could destroying our ability to source the most advanced hardware It won't. Taiwan depends on us.…

> In the long term, it does. It's crazy to read a history of tariffs and conclude that raising tariffs on everyone, everthing and everywhere doesn't hurt you. But in the short term, that demand must be sated, and that disruption creates opportunities. Actually its the opposite. In the long term it incentivizes manufacturing chips in the US. Domestic manufacturing has bipartisan support (see Biden's CHIPS bill) and ob…

How quickly do you think that manufacturers could set up American fab plants? Domestic chip production on the level of TSMC is several years out even if all available resources were directed toward it now.
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