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Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027

arstechnica.com

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Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027

#11

Post by JimmyAustin »

cruffle_duffle wrote: post #7

This kind of hype is nutso. Look I use LLMs every day all day but they are assistants. They aren’t inventors or prognosticators. They cannot predict how the market will react to a product or idea. They cannot and will never be able to construct anything new outside of their training data. They’ll always need humans in the loop to come up with new interesting things and those humans will be the ones doing most of the…

> they are assistants. They aren’t inventors or prognosticators. They cannot predict how the market will react to a product or idea.

Can you?

Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027

#12

Post by rUsHeYaFuBu »

walterbell wrote: post #6
rUsHeYaFuBu wrote: post #3

> "We've recognized that we've reached the point as a technological civilization where the idea, there's huge abundance and huge economic value, but the idea that the way to distribute that value is for humans to produce economic labor, and this is where they feel their sense of self worth," he added. "Once that idea gets invalidated, we're all going to have to sit down and figure it out." I suspect we'll just let th…

> let those without the means to guarantee their well-being just die off then History has some entertaining responses to previous holders of such viewpoints.

History doesn't have robot armies.

Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027

#13

Post by walterbell »

rUsHeYaFuBu wrote: post #12
walterbell wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> let those without the means to guarantee their well-being just die off then History has some entertaining responses to previous holders of such viewpoints.

History doesn't have robot armies.

History has news about hackers.

Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027

#14

Post by rUsHeYaFuBu »

Havoc wrote: post #9
rUsHeYaFuBu wrote: post #3

> "We've recognized that we've reached the point as a technological civilization where the idea, there's huge abundance and huge economic value, but the idea that the way to distribute that value is for humans to produce economic labor, and this is where they feel their sense of self worth," he added. "Once that idea gets invalidated, we're all going to have to sit down and figure it out." I suspect we'll just let th…

Social nets are a thing. Not particularly worried about anyone dying off. At least in mid to rich countries. Bigger concern in those to me is what sort of existence it’ll be. State keeps you alive sure but I’d like to do a bit more than that

Why guarantee the social safety nets? There's no benefit for those in power to keep them and we already let those in the U.S. without means die. Why should the case be different here?

Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027

#16

Post by walterbell »

rUsHeYaFuBu wrote: post #15
walterbell wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

History has news about hackers.

And that's supposed to do what exactly here?

You're posting on a website called Hacker News, with countless HN discussions of security exploits of shipping products.

Any recommendations on vendors of unhackable robots, a.k.a. computers?

Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027

#17

Post by yladiz »

shalabajser wrote: post #2

This is our future: short term growth in economy and stock markets followed by massive layoffs followed by economic crash followed by societal collapse. If you think this is all BS and you will be always smarter than any machine, realize that raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years. AI seems to follow the same growth. If you think you are safe, read what Geoffrey Hinton, one of the fathers of ML, said about…

> raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years

Good thing that the number of neurons in our brains are so many orders of magnitude larger than this that it doesn't matter.

I think what you're getting at is that in the next few years we're going to have AGI, which will eventually cause societal collapse. Under that assumption, while all of the AGI arguments are pretty poor, computing power increases over time is one of the weakest. It's going to take so much more than just computing power to get us close to AGI, it's going to take a lot more than LLMs, and it's possible to poison models with specially created data, so I'm not worried; I don't have shivers. What gives me more shivers is that there are people that seriously believe the hype to the degree that they believe the current technology, just a bit improved, will lead to the end of our current life as we know it.

Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027

#18

Post by yladiz »

JimmyAustin wrote: post #11
cruffle_duffle wrote: post #7

This kind of hype is nutso. Look I use LLMs every day all day but they are assistants. They aren’t inventors or prognosticators. They cannot predict how the market will react to a product or idea. They cannot and will never be able to construct anything new outside of their training data. They’ll always need humans in the loop to come up with new interesting things and those humans will be the ones doing most of the…

> they are assistants. They aren’t inventors or prognosticators. They cannot predict how the market will react to a product or idea. Can you?

Humans can obviously invent, assist, prognosticate, and predict. Just because not every human may be able to do every one of those things doesn't invalidate the point that LLMs cannot do those things.

Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027

#19

Post by walterbell »

rUsHeYaFuBu wrote: post #14
Havoc wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Social nets are a thing. Not particularly worried about anyone dying off. At least in mid to rich countries. Bigger concern in those to me is what sort of existence it’ll be. State keeps you alive sure but I’d like to do a bit more than that

Why guarantee the social safety nets? There's no benefit for those in power to keep them and we already let those in the U.S. without means die. Why should the case be different here?

Future generations will thank those asking this perennial question, for providing contemporary physical evidence of lessons long learned by earlier generations of humans with transient "power".

Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027

#20

Post by rUsHeYaFuBu »

walterbell wrote: post #16
rUsHeYaFuBu wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that's supposed to do what exactly here?

You're posting on a website called Hacker News, with countless HN discussions of security exploits of shipping products. Any recommendations on vendors of unhackable robots, a.k.a. computers?

> I don't think it will be a whole bunch longer than that when AI systems are better than humans at almost everything. Better than almost all humans at almost everything. And then eventually better than all humans at everything, even robotics."

> Amodei also spoke some about the potential implications of highly intelligent AI systems when these AI models can control advanced robotics.

"[If] we make good enough AI systems, they'll enable us to make better robots. And so when that happens, we will need to have a conversation..."

Good luck... I'm sure some altruistic individuals will "hack" things so you don't need to be worried.

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