All of the arguments presented in this were equally true in 2013 as they are in 2025 and there are many more dimensions than you are taking into consideration. For instance, the demographics of HN users could have changed, or the economic climate is cyclically more defensive and 'risk off', which is well known. I suspect this is more related to economic cycles than a cultural paradigm shift and would suggest the author to think more deeply than forming vague generalizations around some HN comments of anonymous users.
Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith
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Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith
#12Pretend all you want but interest rates make a ton of difference.
If you can make a safe, compounded, perhaps leveraged 5% from treasuries the financial bar that a successful startup has to pass is so much higher
Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith
#13Scenario 1: an ambitious guy in his early twenties fails and writes anonymously about how it feels to see your company collapse and your investors shun you. He felt alone and ashamed and he had to pick himself up.
Scenario 2: a guy who already made millions in tech and who is a venture capitalist on the side coyly brags about his business failures.
Can you see how they are not the same?
Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith
#14Concerning
> 4. The industry has matured. The low-hanging fruit of the mobile/web era has largely been picked, making truly innovative opportunities harder to find.
I disagree: In my feeling truly innovative opportunities are still rather easy to find.
I feel what rather changed is that with VC becoming big and mainstream, investors have become more risk-averse in investing into innovative ideas (that they don't really understand). Perhaps also society has become more conservative, so selling a really innovative product to a customer has become harder.
Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith
#15It seems like there's an expectation of having to get investment as quickly as possible for your company in order for it be "worth doing", which feels counter-intuitive. It sucks that this is the first thought and must prevent a lot of good stuff ever getting started. At least in the UK, a 300k salary for a senior developer is not plausible for most people. But the idea of growing a something slowly, without investment and reaching that sort of income definitely seems more likely. I guess it's all different circumstances!
Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith
#16extrapolating from one post instead of total Series A-F raised without accounting for interest rates as well as political motivations to weaken tech seems a bit sensational imo
Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith
#17I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory
Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out.
As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-millions being handed out turned out to be legends. Dodgy accounting & staff retention meant that actually you don't get fuckyou money.
The only realy reason to join a startup is that you either believe in the "mission" or that you believe it will bring you joy to work in that way.
Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith
#18Pretend all you want but interest rates make a ton of difference. If you can make a safe, compounded, perhaps leveraged 5% from treasuries the financial bar that a successful startup has to pass is so much higher
Interest rates are like a dial which turns economic activity up and down.
I’ve always understood that in theory but it’s the first time I’ve actually lived through it and it’s wild.
A few years of higher rates and half of the tech industry and the people who buy tech seems to be on hold.
It makes me realise how vacuous the last decade was and how a lot of our jobs and businesses existed because of dirt cheap money. I’m glad I saved some money rather than thinking it was going to last forever!
Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith
#19I've worked at startups and at a FAANG. For many years, I've told people that they should never do a startup for the $$$; their expected value is higher at a FAANG. They should do a startup only if they're interested in the technology or the people.
Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith
#20Concerning > 4. The industry has matured. The low-hanging fruit of the mobile/web era has largely been picked, making truly innovative opportunities harder to find. I disagree: In my feeling truly innovative opportunities are still rather easy to find. I feel what rather changed is that with VC becoming big and mainstream, investors have become more risk-averse in investing into innovative ideas (that they don't real…
> Perhaps also society has become more conservative, so selling a really innovative product to a customer has become harder.
Customers are more locked into existing products. Network effects, switching costs, familiarity and branding, staff training (for businesses) and learning something new....