Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

hindenburgresearch.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–20 of 430 posts

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#11

Post by ryandamm »

tines wrote: post #8
steveBK123 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a hard business to make money in. Shorting tends to be intrinsically harder because the market goes up over time and Americans are generally optimists. Plus the last 2 years we've seen 20+% market moves upwards. Despite it being a necessity for functioning markets, when you are short, seemingly everyone is against you - business management, regulators, media, etc. Not surprised to see them bow out. Chanos did so…

> Shorting tends to be intrinsically harder because the market goes up over time and Americans are generally optimists Also, with shorting the best you can do is double your money (if the stock goes to 0), while you can lose an unlimited amount (as there’s no cap on a rising stock); whereas with going long, you can only lose all your money (again, if it goes to 0), but you can gain an unlimited amount.

Except for leverage... but the general point remains that the upside is capped and the downside in theory is not.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#12

Post by defrost »

For myself at least that was a wild behind the curtain reveal; for a group that's had such a profound impact exposing some of the better kept secrets of some of the worst people and companies, Nate presents himself and his associates as surprisingly ordinary day to day types armed with grit and determination.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#13

Post by salynchnew »

soniman wrote: post #7

38 seems young to quit. Is there another story here?

Given the number of ultrarich and powerful people that already hate the Hindenberg folks... my guess would be that there is some calculus here about the incoming U.S. presidential administration's enmity towards whistleblowers and their prior statements about changing libel laws in the U.S.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#15

Post by snailmailstare »

proxyon wrote: post #9
soniman wrote: post #7

38 seems young to quit. Is there another story here?

Off the top of my head the reporting about Block - CashApp was disgraceful and Hindenburg got sued for it. Not sure how that's going to play out with disbanding the "company."

Would that really be a factor? It's hard to call it slander when you agree to pay the fine.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#16

Post by dgfitz »

bihla wrote: post #14

Did he... link the wrong URL at the end of the post? I thought for sure it was going to be some sort of heartfelt speech, or motivational message, or something. But it's an instrumental DJ set which seems totally out of left field

> P.S. If you are chasing something you think you want or need, or are doubting whether you are enough, take a minute and give this a listen. It had a big impact on me at a pivotal time.

He shared something that helped him at a pivotal time. Your expectations are your own. :)

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#17

Post by bihla »

dgfitz wrote: post #16
bihla wrote: post #14

Did he... link the wrong URL at the end of the post? I thought for sure it was going to be some sort of heartfelt speech, or motivational message, or something. But it's an instrumental DJ set which seems totally out of left field

> P.S. If you are chasing something you think you want or need, or are doubting whether you are enough, take a minute and give this a listen. It had a big impact on me at a pivotal time. He shared something that helped him at a pivotal time. Your expectations are your own. :)

Ha I guess that's fair. Were you expecting a DJ set?

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#18

Post by tart-lemonade »

steveBK123 wrote: post #5
ilamont wrote: post #2

Has anyone else publicly copied the Hindenburg investigation/financial model? It's not proprietary AFAIK.

It's a hard business to make money in. Shorting tends to be intrinsically harder because the market goes up over time and Americans are generally optimists. Plus the last 2 years we've seen 20+% market moves upwards. Despite it being a necessity for functioning markets, when you are short, seemingly everyone is against you - business management, regulators, media, etc. Not surprised to see them bow out. Chanos did so…

People have this idea that short sellers are market manipulators who conspire to wipe out innocent day traders' life savings and trigger mass layoffs with the stroke of a pen (hence the term "financial terrorism," which is absolutely comical in its hyperbole but used with complete sincerity by the anti-short crowd), but like tines said, it's a risky business that requires lots of research that frequently goes nowhere with limited upside and uncapped potential losses. The amount of times they and other short sellers publish damning evidence on a company only for the stock to shoot back as soon as the company releases a "nothing to see here" non-response really shows the difficulty in making money in the space (and how much people want to bury their heads in the sand).

Given the regulatory environment we are heading into, I expect short selling will become an even riskier business since the SEC isn't going to be prosecuting fraud anymore (or rather, they'll be doing even less than they are now), making it much easier to sic the lawyers on firms like Hindenburg. Even though this isn't their stated reason for bowing out, I wouldn't be surprised or hold it against them if it was a factor.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#19

Post by 1024core »

steveBK123 wrote: post #5
ilamont wrote: post #2

Has anyone else publicly copied the Hindenburg investigation/financial model? It's not proprietary AFAIK.

It's a hard business to make money in. Shorting tends to be intrinsically harder because the market goes up over time and Americans are generally optimists. Plus the last 2 years we've seen 20+% market moves upwards. Despite it being a necessity for functioning markets, when you are short, seemingly everyone is against you - business management, regulators, media, etc. Not surprised to see them bow out. Chanos did so…

> Shorting tends to be intrinsically harder because the market goes up over time and Americans are generally optimists.

... and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

I remember once I tried shorting a stock, of a market leader in my area. I knew the field well enough to see that they were trying to fudge some numbers and their quarter was _not_ as good as they had claimed it to be.

But sadly the market didn't see this and the stock went up. E*Trade started pushing me to cover my positions, and eventually I ended up losing a 5-figure sum (nothing earth-shattering, but still a good chunk of my cash).

After I had bought it all back, slowly the market realized what I had seen and the stock dropped as I had expected. Unfortunately I did not have the deep pockets to stick around long enough; all I was left with was a hole in the wallet and a hard lesson learned.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#20

Post by JamesLeonis »

ilamont wrote: post #2

Has anyone else publicly copied the Hindenburg investigation/financial model? It's not proprietary AFAIK.

They are planning to release their methodology. Buried in the article:

> Beyond my own desire for relief, it also feels selfish to keep the knowledge we’ve accumulated trapped within our small team. I have more than enough. In the past several years we’ve been flooded with thousands of messages from many of you asking how we do what we do, or whether you can join the team. I read them all and I’ve been trying to figure out how to respond in a way that can answer everyone—so over the next 6 months or so I plan to work on a series of materials and videos to open-source every aspect of our model and how we conduct our investigations.

Post reply on HN