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Exotic new superconductors delight and confound

quantamagazine.org

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Re: Exotic new superconductors delight and confound

#11

Post by NL807 »

dtquad wrote: post #4
jmward01 wrote: post #2

The great thing about watching advances in superconductors is that any day we could discover the first true practical room temp superconductor and that one day changes the world immensely. I personally think we are likely to find one in the next 5-10 years, but that estimate is based on nothing but hope and optimism on my part.

For the most valuable applications it is also "good enough" to find a superconductor that can be cooled with cheap liquid nitrogen and retain the magnetic field tolerance, current-carrying capacity, and thermal stability of a superconductor cooled with expensive liquid helium. Some so-called "high temperature" superconductors begin superconducting at liquid-nitrogen temperature or higher. However in real life applica…

>and retain the magnetic field tolerance, current-carrying capacity

Even if it doesn't meet those requirements, room temperature superconductors will have immense value in low-power applications, micro electronics, sensing, etc.

Re: Exotic new superconductors delight and confound

#12

Post by jeffparsons »

AlexErrant wrote: post #5
jmward01 wrote: post #2

The great thing about watching advances in superconductors is that any day we could discover the first true practical room temp superconductor and that one day changes the world immensely. I personally think we are likely to find one in the next 5-10 years, but that estimate is based on nothing but hope and optimism on my part.

I'm not a believer in that timeline. There's a large distance between superconductivity in the lab and commercial application (since you specified "changes the world immensely"). E.g. MRIs still use NiTi (critical temperature of ~10 kelvins), discovered in 1962, for a number of reasons (this is in spite of MgB2 having a critical T of ~39k, ReBCO with a critical T of ~90k, and BSCCO with a critical T of ~108k): > In t…

One exciting thing that could still happen in the shorter term (if/when a promising novel "high temperature superconductor" is confirmed) is an explosion of investment into research in the area. So even if it takes decades for Material X to end up in MRI machines, there would still be a steady stream of juicy progress to read about while we wait!

Re: Exotic new superconductors delight and confound

#13

Post by metalman »

room temperature superconductors are inevitable, all matter is conductive and photo active in some way or another,and conduction is one of the non optional components of reality, so the number of possible compounds that might superconduct is huge and now that there apear to be multiple mechanisms that superconduction can function from, means that the search will begin in earnist its a multi trillion dollar app

Re: Exotic new superconductors delight and confound

#14

Post by zardo »

metalman wrote: post #13

room temperature superconductors are inevitable, all matter is conductive and photo active in some way or another,and conduction is one of the non optional components of reality, so the number of possible compounds that might superconduct is huge and now that there apear to be multiple mechanisms that superconduction can function from, means that the search will begin in earnist its a multi trillion dollar app

Is a 400C superconductor also inevitable?

Re: Exotic new superconductors delight and confound

#15

Post by simpaticoder »

Animats wrote: post #8

Wow. Go over to [1] and read the papers. This is good stuff. When someone finds new physics, interesting things result. Tungsten disulfide/boron nitride superconductors? That's a new direction. This article describes a new research result as a new research result, not as "trillion dollar industry by 2027". That helps credibility. [1] https://physics.mit.edu/faculty/long-ju/

>This article describes a new research result as a new research result, not as "trillion dollar industry by 2027".

I don't like that language either, but it may be wise to understand that different audiences are reading this, and it may be effective for the author to reach the others in this way. And besides, in general it's easier for a rationalist to ignore such language than it is for an industrialist to add it.

Re: Exotic new superconductors delight and confound

#16

Post by dtgriscom »

dtquad wrote: post #4
jmward01 wrote: post #2

The great thing about watching advances in superconductors is that any day we could discover the first true practical room temp superconductor and that one day changes the world immensely. I personally think we are likely to find one in the next 5-10 years, but that estimate is based on nothing but hope and optimism on my part.

For the most valuable applications it is also "good enough" to find a superconductor that can be cooled with cheap liquid nitrogen and retain the magnetic field tolerance, current-carrying capacity, and thermal stability of a superconductor cooled with expensive liquid helium. Some so-called "high temperature" superconductors begin superconducting at liquid-nitrogen temperature or higher. However in real life applica…

Data point: liquid nitrogen is cheaper than milk.

Re: Exotic new superconductors delight and confound

#17

Post by tedsanders »

jmward01 wrote: post #2

The great thing about watching advances in superconductors is that any day we could discover the first true practical room temp superconductor and that one day changes the world immensely. I personally think we are likely to find one in the next 5-10 years, but that estimate is based on nothing but hope and optimism on my part.

I'd bet that the first room temperature superconductor does not "change the world immensely."

Resistive losses are just one of very many attributes of a conductor. Others important attributes include:

- current capacity (will you need humongously thick wires to match charge carried by aluminum or copper?)

- ductility (can it be formed into wires cheaply?)

- cost (does CapEx outweigh electricity savings? is it expensive enough that people will cut and steal it?)

- weight (can it hang from power poles? can it be transported on the backs of trucks?)

- temperature sensitivity (does it crack at low temperature? melt at high temperature? change electrical properties depending on the weather? stop conducting on hot days?)

- chemical stability (will it oxidize over a 50-year lifecycle?)

- toxicity (will kids be poisoned if they touch it / eat it?)

- machinability (can it be formed into tiny wires? can it be patterned onto chips?)

- electromigration resistance (will the material break down over time from carrying charge?)

- tensile strength (can it be hung from power poles at their current spacing? would we need to rip out all power poles across the planet? would we need more expensive underground lines?)

- abundance in the Earth's crust (will the price skyrocket if we suddenly need to produce an annual megaton to replace the world's powerlines?)

- geographic concentration (are the primary deposits concentrated in a single country, introducing potential supply chain and geosecurity risks?)

- etc.

It's very likely that the first material which does better on resistivity is going to do worse on these other dimensions. Resistivity is rarely the number one criterion in selecting conductors, from power lines to computer chips.

One of the reason incumbent technologies are difficult to replace is that they win on criteria that are less salient to potential innovators. Aluminum is a common metal for power lines not because it has the lowest resistivity, but because it's by far the best we've got when evaluating this whole portfolio of needs.

Re: Exotic new superconductors delight and confound

#18

Post by SequoiaHope »

tedsanders wrote: post #17
jmward01 wrote: post #2

The great thing about watching advances in superconductors is that any day we could discover the first true practical room temp superconductor and that one day changes the world immensely. I personally think we are likely to find one in the next 5-10 years, but that estimate is based on nothing but hope and optimism on my part.

I'd bet that the first room temperature superconductor does not "change the world immensely." Resistive losses are just one of very many attributes of a conductor. Others important attributes include: - current capacity (will you need humongously thick wires to match charge carried by aluminum or copper?) - ductility (can it be formed into wires cheaply?) - cost (does CapEx outweigh electricity savings? is it expensi…

Well lots of these limit the applications but something could have these limitations and still be a commercial success in some valuable niche fields.

Re: Exotic new superconductors delight and confound

#19

Post by skeaker »

tedsanders wrote: post #17
jmward01 wrote: post #2

The great thing about watching advances in superconductors is that any day we could discover the first true practical room temp superconductor and that one day changes the world immensely. I personally think we are likely to find one in the next 5-10 years, but that estimate is based on nothing but hope and optimism on my part.

I'd bet that the first room temperature superconductor does not "change the world immensely." Resistive losses are just one of very many attributes of a conductor. Others important attributes include: - current capacity (will you need humongously thick wires to match charge carried by aluminum or copper?) - ductility (can it be formed into wires cheaply?) - cost (does CapEx outweigh electricity savings? is it expensi…

I think even if it's only usable in niche scenarios it would still be a commercial success. Superconductors are useful even when they're hard to use, as seen with existing cold temperature superconductors which a room temperature one could certainly replace and become a commercial success in doing so. With that said, you're likely correct that the first attempt won't catch on for mass adoption.

Re: Exotic new superconductors delight and confound

#20

Post by exmadscientist »

simpaticoder wrote: post #15
Animats wrote: post #8

Wow. Go over to [1] and read the papers. This is good stuff. When someone finds new physics, interesting things result. Tungsten disulfide/boron nitride superconductors? That's a new direction. This article describes a new research result as a new research result, not as "trillion dollar industry by 2027". That helps credibility. [1] https://physics.mit.edu/faculty/long-ju/

>This article describes a new research result as a new research result, not as "trillion dollar industry by 2027". I don't like that language either, but it may be wise to understand that different audiences are reading this, and it may be effective for the author to reach the others in this way. And besides, in general it's easier for a rationalist to ignore such language than it is for an industrialist to add it.

Bollocks. "Hype language" has a very strong correlation with people who don't know what they're talking about. (Probably because most people who use it do not, in fact, know what they're talking about, even if some might.) So other experts in the field will look down on you if you speak like a British university press release.
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