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OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

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Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#13
> The AGI bubble is bursting a little bit

I'm surprised that any of these companies consider what they are working on to be Artificial General Intelligences. I'm probably wrong, but my impression was AGI meant the AI is self aware like a human. An LLM hardly seems like something that will lead to self-awareness.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#14
I think it is a good thing for AI that we hit the data ceiling, because the pressure moves toward coming up with better model architectures. And with respect to a decade ago there's a much larger number of capable and smart AI researchers who are looking for one.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#16

"We will have better and better models," wrote OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in a recent Reddit AMA. "But I think the thing that will feel like the next giant breakthrough will be agents." Is this certain? Are Agents the right direction to AGI?

They're nothing to do with AGI. They're to get people using their LLMs more.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#17

> The AGI bubble is bursting a little bit I'm surprised that any of these companies consider what they are working on to be Artificial General Intelligences. I'm probably wrong, but my impression was AGI meant the AI is self aware like a human. An LLM hardly seems like something that will lead to self-awareness.

I think your definition is off from what most people would define AGI as. Generally, it means being able to think and reason at a human level for a multitude/all tasks or jobs.

"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a theoretical form of artificial intelligence that possesses the ability to understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks at a level comparable to that of a human being."

Altman says AGI could be here in 2025: https://youtu.be/xXCBz_8hM9w?si=F-vQXJgQvJKZH3fv

But he certainly means an LLM that can perform at/above human level in most tasks rather than a self aware entity.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#18

"We will have better and better models," wrote OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in a recent Reddit AMA. "But I think the thing that will feel like the next giant breakthrough will be agents." Is this certain? Are Agents the right direction to AGI?

If by agents you mean systems comprised of individual (perhaps LLM-powered) agents interacting with each other, probably not. I get the vague impression that so far researchers haven’t found any advantage to such systems — anything you can do with a group of AI agents can be emulated with a single one. It’s like chaining up perceptrons hoping to get more expressive power for free.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#19

"We will have better and better models," wrote OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in a recent Reddit AMA. "But I think the thing that will feel like the next giant breakthrough will be agents." Is this certain? Are Agents the right direction to AGI?

All I can think of when I hear Agents is the Matrix lol.

Goodbye, Mr. Anderson...

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#20

> The AGI bubble is bursting a little bit I'm surprised that any of these companies consider what they are working on to be Artificial General Intelligences. I'm probably wrong, but my impression was AGI meant the AI is self aware like a human. An LLM hardly seems like something that will lead to self-awareness.

Whether self awareness is a requirement for AGI definitely gets more into the Philosophy department than the Computer Science department. I'm not sure everyone even agrees on what AGI is, but a common test is "can it do what humans can".

For example, in this article it says it can't do coding exercises outside the training set. That would definitely be on the "AGI checklist". Basically doing anything that is outside of the training set would be on that list.

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