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Peak population may be coming sooner than we think

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Re: Peak population may be coming sooner than we think

#11

Post by Arnt »

barbequeer wrote: post #9
brtkdotse wrote: post #3

I feel that people underestimate the impact of this. The current world economy is built on the assumption that the population pyramid is a pyramid, if there’s a glut in the influx of healthy new citizens a whole slew of supply chains will collapse.

Do you think this is a bad thing?

A bad estimate is always somehow bad.

The US is in the news now. It has something like five million illegal immigrants that work for next to nothing. Losing that source of cheap labour would be a wrenching change.

Re: Peak population may be coming sooner than we think

#12

Post by llamaimperative »

rhelz wrote: post #7
brtkdotse wrote: post #3

I feel that people underestimate the impact of this. The current world economy is built on the assumption that the population pyramid is a pyramid, if there’s a glut in the influx of healthy new citizens a whole slew of supply chains will collapse.

Whole slews of supply chains collapse all the time. Just look at some rust-belt factories. Or take a look at some 80's computer magazines, where there are an endless number of software companies selling pascal and lisp compilers, BBS software, etc. Not to mention floppy disc drives and CD-ROM drives.

Do you actually not see the difference between widespread sector-agnostic labor disruption and technologies going obsolete? Wondering if this is an actual misunderstanding or you're just pretending.

Re: Peak population may be coming sooner than we think

#13

Post by llamaimperative »

ido wrote: post #4
brtkdotse wrote: post #3

I feel that people underestimate the impact of this. The current world economy is built on the assumption that the population pyramid is a pyramid, if there’s a glut in the influx of healthy new citizens a whole slew of supply chains will collapse.

On the demand side - but how would automation/AI/robotics impact the supply/production side (i.e. will we replace the unborn would-be new workers with new robots)?

They would impact it by siphoning greater proportions of economic surplus to the owners of said robots, i.e. the wealthy.

Re: Peak population may be coming sooner than we think

#15

Post by Spivak »

rustcleaner wrote: post #5

Ha-ha, neoliberals can't replacement migration themselves out of this quagmire!

Replacement migration doesn't really have to do with the absolute numbers in the world but admitting immigrants from countries that have well above replacement rate. The world population is so large that the countries who desire increased population have a loooooong runway.

The only problem, exemplified by the Windrush Generation in the UK, is the rampant racism towards the people who are immigrating to help you.

Re: Peak population may be coming sooner than we think

#16

Post by mindslight »

rustcleaner wrote: post #5

Ha-ha, neoliberals can't replacement migration themselves out of this quagmire!

Yeah, and we might have stood a chance at constructive reform had so much of the population not fallen for the siren song of fascism, itself just a different lazy option offered by the elites. Same old story - they turn the screws of extraction as long as they can get away with it, and when the jig is up they contain the ire by making sure it's directed at superficially different individuals.

Re: Peak population may be coming sooner than we think

#17

Post by nine_zeros »

brtkdotse wrote: post #3

I feel that people underestimate the impact of this. The current world economy is built on the assumption that the population pyramid is a pyramid, if there’s a glut in the influx of healthy new citizens a whole slew of supply chains will collapse.

> The current world economy is built on the assumption that the population pyramid is a pyramid

And this is an economic system problem. The solution to an economic problem is not more people

The solution to an economic problem is revamping the economic system aka more share of wealth going to average people than merely the wealthy sitting on compounding growth.

Re: Peak population may be coming sooner than we think

#19

Post by namaria »

Arnt wrote: post #11
barbequeer wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think this is a bad thing?

A bad estimate is always somehow bad. The US is in the news now. It has something like five million illegal immigrants that work for next to nothing. Losing that source of cheap labour would be a wrenching change.

I have a hunch that mass deportations have an accelerationist origin. If Heritage Foundation ultimately thinks depopulation and mass automation are tenable and on their way, a supply shock in the labor market could spark some change. Not unlike the Death Plague contributed to the rise of wealthy craftsman and merchant class.

Re: Peak population may be coming sooner than we think

#20

Post by randomdata »

brtkdotse wrote: post #3

I feel that people underestimate the impact of this. The current world economy is built on the assumption that the population pyramid is a pyramid, if there’s a glut in the influx of healthy new citizens a whole slew of supply chains will collapse.

> I feel that people underestimate the impact of this.

Do they? As a non-American just watching in, I got the impression that Trump won on this very issue, promising that "Christian family values" would bring about a reversal. That was certainly the message, when taken at face value (I understand many believe that it is trying to mask other motives), that made it out of the USA, at least. That suggests to me that the concern is there.

I expect most people do understand the impact, but, much like climate change, don't know how to actually bring about the change that is needed without infringing on the life they want to live.

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