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In some scientific papers, words expressing uncertainty have decreased (2023)

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Re: In some scientific papers, words expressing uncertainty have decreased (2023)

#11

Post by Tanoc »

bigs wrote: post #4
_yb2s wrote: post #2

I think this is a general cultural phenomenon not specific to the sciences- people are told they need to be aggressively confident to be taken seriously. Even as a kid parents and teachers will suggest to kids to edit words expressing uncertainty out of their writing. They are coached to talk like that when public speaking, at job interviews, and even dating. As a scientist- I also think papers and grant applications…

Agree. At least in my western country, it has become almost expected that everyone is fully confident all the time. I’m someone who likes to deliberate on thoughts, take my time, listen to opinions and assess them, then provide my opinion (which may also change over time with more information or changing circumstances). I am humble, a listener, and don’t believe I know everything. I feel a little out of place in curr…

When I was younger I had a bad habit of taking what information I did know and then piecing it together to try and fill in what I didn't know, then stating that confidently. Many times I was wrong. In fact, most times I was wrong and not even close. But I was expected to be that way in order for people to listen to me. I was doing this almost until I was twenty because of that expectation.

The one good thing that came out of this maladapted behaviour is that I learned to take my hunch, piece together the information, and then use that to go looking for what I didn't know. In a way it got me addicted to constantly learning, something I never managed in school.

Re: In some scientific papers, words expressing uncertainty have decreased (2023)

#12

Post by dragonwriter »

mmooss wrote: post #9
kleiba wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even as a kid parents and teachers will suggest to kids to edit words expressing uncertainty out of their writing. They are coached to talk like that when public speaking, at job interviews, and even dating. That's the first time I'm hearing this and it's certainly not something I've ever observed. In this broad generally, I cannot believe that this statement is true.

I was going to write the same thing as the GP, fwiw. Look at how many public figures embrace the extreme overconfidence as a mark of tactical genius: SBF, Musk, lots of other SV figures, Trump, etc. Humbleness, humility used to be admired. Can you imagine someone saying that now?

> Humbleness, humility used to be admired.

They are generally praised in the abstract, but in concrete terms of actual people in terms of attracting a contemporary following (and not distant, historical, and academic respect), boldness has usually trumped humility. The idea that there was a time when people didn't flock to the overcompetent people presenting strong-leader images over people with genuine humility is just one of the many ways people create a mythical past to paint the manifestation of long-present aspects of human culture as novel degeneracy into which the world has recently fallen.

Re: In some scientific papers, words expressing uncertainty have decreased (2023)

#13

Post by thiagocmoraes »

kleiba wrote: post #7
_yb2s wrote: post #2

I think this is a general cultural phenomenon not specific to the sciences- people are told they need to be aggressively confident to be taken seriously. Even as a kid parents and teachers will suggest to kids to edit words expressing uncertainty out of their writing. They are coached to talk like that when public speaking, at job interviews, and even dating. As a scientist- I also think papers and grant applications…

> Even as a kid parents and teachers will suggest to kids to edit words expressing uncertainty out of their writing. They are coached to talk like that when public speaking, at job interviews, and even dating. That's the first time I'm hearing this and it's certainly not something I've ever observed. In this broad generally, I cannot believe that this statement is true.

Are you american? As a non-american living in the US, the statement from parent post sounds about right to me. Culturally, people sound very confident, even when they have little to no confidence on the content.

Re: In some scientific papers, words expressing uncertainty have decreased (2023)

#14

Post by hollerith »

thiagocmoraes wrote: post #13
kleiba wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even as a kid parents and teachers will suggest to kids to edit words expressing uncertainty out of their writing. They are coached to talk like that when public speaking, at job interviews, and even dating. That's the first time I'm hearing this and it's certainly not something I've ever observed. In this broad generally, I cannot believe that this statement is true.

Are you american? As a non-american living in the US, the statement from parent post sounds about right to me. Culturally, people sound very confident, even when they have little to no confidence on the content.

This American agrees. I intentionally make my public writings much more confident than my private writings. If I don't, people just ignore me.

Re: In some scientific papers, words expressing uncertainty have decreased (2023)

#15

Post by juujian »

Obligatory "havent read the journal article." But I can say that I remove words like that from my manuscripts to reduce the word count. Older articles I read seem to ramble more and have less information density? So that's another possible explanation?

Re: In some scientific papers, words expressing uncertainty have decreased (2023)

#16

Post by mmooss »

dragonwriter wrote: post #12
mmooss wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was going to write the same thing as the GP, fwiw. Look at how many public figures embrace the extreme overconfidence as a mark of tactical genius: SBF, Musk, lots of other SV figures, Trump, etc. Humbleness, humility used to be admired. Can you imagine someone saying that now?

> Humbleness, humility used to be admired. They are generally praised in the abstract, but in concrete terms of actual people in terms of attracting a contemporary following (and not distant, historical, and academic respect), boldness has usually trumped humility. The idea that there was a time when people didn't flock to the overcompetent people presenting strong-leader images over people with genuine humility is j…

> in concrete terms of actual people in terms of attracting a contemporary following (and not distant, historical, and academic respect), boldness has usually trumped humility

I don't think that's true: Confucious, Jesus, George Washington, Lincoln, MLK ... Eisenhower, every president before Trump, the New England culture of looking down on ostentation and displays of wealth, .... I read a New Yorker article several years ago about a culture of Wall Street leaders in the 1980s who purposely wore cheap watches, had homes with low fences, etc.

Re: In some scientific papers, words expressing uncertainty have decreased (2023)

#17

Post by randomNumber7 »

bigs wrote: post #4
_yb2s wrote: post #2

I think this is a general cultural phenomenon not specific to the sciences- people are told they need to be aggressively confident to be taken seriously. Even as a kid parents and teachers will suggest to kids to edit words expressing uncertainty out of their writing. They are coached to talk like that when public speaking, at job interviews, and even dating. As a scientist- I also think papers and grant applications…

Agree. At least in my western country, it has become almost expected that everyone is fully confident all the time. I’m someone who likes to deliberate on thoughts, take my time, listen to opinions and assess them, then provide my opinion (which may also change over time with more information or changing circumstances). I am humble, a listener, and don’t believe I know everything. I feel a little out of place in curr…

These are just characteristics of high intelligence. You would have always felt out of place with society.

Re: In some scientific papers, words expressing uncertainty have decreased (2023)

#18

Post by _yb2s »

randomNumber7 wrote: post #17
bigs wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree. At least in my western country, it has become almost expected that everyone is fully confident all the time. I’m someone who likes to deliberate on thoughts, take my time, listen to opinions and assess them, then provide my opinion (which may also change over time with more information or changing circumstances). I am humble, a listener, and don’t believe I know everything. I feel a little out of place in curr…

These are just characteristics of high intelligence. You would have always felt out of place with society.

I think there’s personality traits at play here also- simply being introverted means you are more focused on if your ideas make sense to you, than how they will be received or what they will make other people think about you.

I think there are intelligent extroverts that just aren’t really that worried about if their opinions are correct or not except in rare cases where the consequences of being wrong would be severe.

Re: In some scientific papers, words expressing uncertainty have decreased (2023)

#19

Post by sandworm101 »

jampekka wrote: post #6
_yb2s wrote: post #2

I think this is a general cultural phenomenon not specific to the sciences- people are told they need to be aggressively confident to be taken seriously. Even as a kid parents and teachers will suggest to kids to edit words expressing uncertainty out of their writing. They are coached to talk like that when public speaking, at job interviews, and even dating. As a scientist- I also think papers and grant applications…

Also e.g. MS Word suggests getting rid of qualifiers. With papers and especially grant applications it's ridiculous that everybody knows they are overpromising but still they don't go through of they don't overpromise.

Before i send something i make sure each paragraph has at least one it of green underline. The day that Word and I agree on grammar is the day i switch back to pencil and paper!

Re: In some scientific papers, words expressing uncertainty have decreased (2023)

#20

Post by dragonwriter »

mmooss wrote: post #16
dragonwriter wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Humbleness, humility used to be admired. They are generally praised in the abstract, but in concrete terms of actual people in terms of attracting a contemporary following (and not distant, historical, and academic respect), boldness has usually trumped humility. The idea that there was a time when people didn't flock to the overcompetent people presenting strong-leader images over people with genuine humility is j…

> in concrete terms of actual people in terms of attracting a contemporary following (and not distant, historical, and academic respect), boldness has usually trumped humility I don't think that's true: Confucious, Jesus, George Washington, Lincoln, MLK ... Eisenhower, every president before Trump, the New England culture of looking down on ostentation and displays of wealth, .... I read a New Yorker article several…

> I don't think that's true: Confucious, Jesus,

Jesus had a relatively small band of followers that abandoned him at the first sign of unpopularity with authorities, pissed off more people than followed him, and was murdered by the public authorities at the demand of the local population. He got a bigger posthumous following after (actually or in a myth created by people seeking their own influence) rising from the dead.

Says a lot more about the respect for miracles than respect for humility, however much one might read what is written about him as calling for humility from his followers. Meanwhile the list of historical figures whose rise to influence was fueled by the exact opposite of humility is...not short.

> every president before Trump,

Very many of the Presidents before Trump were...not known for humility in their time. Some have had that added to their popular myth afterwards, but, I mean, plenty not even that, and probably the most recent one that was (I'm...not young, and Carter is probably the only one in my lifetime you might make a case that it was something he was particularly known for.)

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