Spring time and it’s 7 degrees. Usually higher this time of year.
Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
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Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#12Capitalism is now trying to avoid doing the absolute minimum that we would need to do if the climate catastrophe shall be avoided. In fact I am convinced that if you had to invent a system that that optimized a societies reaction to climate annihilation in such a way that it does the bare minimum as predicted to be needed by climate models it would probably look a lot like what we have today. The inly issue with that…
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Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#13I opened this article hoping it would mention the point about the rules concerning reduced sulfur content of the fuel used in super tanker marine shipping, and it didn't disappoint: "A lot of people have looked at the impact of the marine shipping regulation change. If you take that and you put it into some climate model and you estimate the temperature change, right now you’d expect about 0.05 of a degree, 0.08 of a…
There was a recent article in The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/14/nature-c... Seems like the models have quite a few holes. It made me wonder if anyone has considered making a complete list of assumptions that are baked into these models, so they can be looked at in detail.
There are families of models that focus on different things, each family with a number of members that have differing paremeter weightingss, etc.
Yes, there are big overviews of the models and how they differ - the IPCC look at the over|under predictions of all the models and look at the spread and assumptions to select a "most probable" middle ground prediction for climate going forward.
For example while the current year has been warmer than expected it's also been cooler than a number of worst case scenarios that assume faster methane releases and water vapor increases, etc.
I had a goto link for a good overview .. currently it's redirecting to:
The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is working on our digital Special Collections and the connection with OSTI. This includes all LLNL produced Technical Reports, Theses & Dissertations, and eSholarship content. We are working at making these available through OSTI. We apologize for the interruption in service.Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#14The skeptical view:
Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#15Worth remembering that even IPCC itself has models which predict way higher temperatures by 2100 than goes into IPCC reports. We have just decided to collectively ignore them.
We are collectively in full on denial about the consequences of climate change. Only directly accountable organizations like militaries and insurers are actually acting on the data. People are still buying cheap stuff from overseas, traveling and generally spending energy like there's no tomorrow. We will only see real changes in behavior and policy once coastal flooding in major metropolises becomes a reality a few decades down the line.
Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#16Capitalism is now trying to avoid doing the absolute minimum that we would need to do if the climate catastrophe shall be avoided. In fact I am convinced that if you had to invent a system that that optimized a societies reaction to climate annihilation in such a way that it does the bare minimum as predicted to be needed by climate models it would probably look a lot like what we have today. The inly issue with that…
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You mean China that built more solar last year than the rest of the world combined? Not to mention batteries.
Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#17The skeptical view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYhCQv5tNsQ
Post a couple of videos about ancient aliens inventing civilization and time travel while you're at it
Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#18Capitalism is now trying to avoid doing the absolute minimum that we would need to do if the climate catastrophe shall be avoided. In fact I am convinced that if you had to invent a system that that optimized a societies reaction to climate annihilation in such a way that it does the bare minimum as predicted to be needed by climate models it would probably look a lot like what we have today. The inly issue with that…
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China is autocratic but it's not communist or 'non-capitalist' by any stretch of the imagination.
Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#19Capitalism is now trying to avoid doing the absolute minimum that we would need to do if the climate catastrophe shall be avoided. In fact I am convinced that if you had to invent a system that that optimized a societies reaction to climate annihilation in such a way that it does the bare minimum as predicted to be needed by climate models it would probably look a lot like what we have today. The inly issue with that…
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This kind of bipartisan thinking is not getting us anywhere, and wasting precious time. China is building a lot of renewable energy infrastructure at this moment, and the US insists on fracking. There is not just black and white, but a lot of hard problems that need solving, now—whether you're Chinese, French, or Kongoan.
Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#20Earlier quoted context omitted.
There was a recent article in The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/14/nature-c... Seems like the models have quite a few holes. It made me wonder if anyone has considered making a complete list of assumptions that are baked into these models, so they can be looked at in detail.
Do you mean "a full model so that you can analyze it with fluid dynamics, differential equations, and thermodynamics", or do you mean "a pre made Gish Gallop that you can rattle off without having to actually think about any of them"?
Don’t be anti-intellectual by default