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China's Real Economic Crisis

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Re: China's Real Economic Crisis

#11

Post by consumer451 »

ggm wrote: post #5
consumer451 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand how anyone can trust the numbers coming out of Russia or China. In both cases, there is zero transparency.

There has to be some basis to link public numbers with reality because very large sums of money aren't invested without more due diligence than a HN sceptical hot take. People dislike the one party state but they work with it because the fundamentals work. Temporary glitches happen, informing central planning false numbers is unsustainable in the long term, you can't hide the bodies and waste forever.

> informing central planning false numbers is unsustainable in the long term, you can't hide the bodies and waste forever.

I would argue that this is a major reason why modern history is littered with the corpses of authoritarian regimes. They "work great" until the lie-debt stacks up to the point where it is undeniable.

Re: China's Real Economic Crisis

#13

Post by ggm »

consumer451 wrote: post #11
ggm wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There has to be some basis to link public numbers with reality because very large sums of money aren't invested without more due diligence than a HN sceptical hot take. People dislike the one party state but they work with it because the fundamentals work. Temporary glitches happen, informing central planning false numbers is unsustainable in the long term, you can't hide the bodies and waste forever.

> informing central planning false numbers is unsustainable in the long term, you can't hide the bodies and waste forever. I would argue that this is a major reason why modern history is littered with the corpses of authoritarian regimes. They "work great" until the lie-debt stacks up to the point where it is undeniable.

So I can take that as supportive to my line of reasoning given we're way past 1949 and the state isn't failing. And the ones that fail didn't learn the lesson. Don't lie to yourself about hitting the plan targets.

Vietnam is also mostly centrally planned and seems to be doing what the state says it is.

Re: China's Real Economic Crisis

#14

Post by refurb »

petermcneeley wrote: post #10
refurb wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> America's growth is narrowly focused on the digital tech sector. This is incorrect. Tech gets the most attention, but it's not the driver of GDP growth. https://www.statista.com/statistics/248004/percentage-added-... > This is a fragile position and now requires the full force of tariff and bans to sustain. This doesn't even jive with your prior sentence. The US doesn't use tariffs to protect the tech sector. Howev…

If "finance, insurance ... " and "Government" are actually the drivers to GDP growth then one has quite a bit more to worry about than the fact that this number is a mere 2.4% I was more referring to growth in the value of the companies in the snp 500. https://insight.factset.com/are-the-magnificent-7-the-top-co... Why I responded initially was because the focus on GDP per capita. This isnt a great way to compare liv…

Are you suggesting financial services aren’t “real GDP”? Why?

And instead of GDP you think S&P is a better metric? It’s even less relevant than GDP to QOL.

Re: China's Real Economic Crisis

#15

Post by consumer451 »

ggm wrote: post #13
consumer451 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> informing central planning false numbers is unsustainable in the long term, you can't hide the bodies and waste forever. I would argue that this is a major reason why modern history is littered with the corpses of authoritarian regimes. They "work great" until the lie-debt stacks up to the point where it is undeniable.

So I can take that as supportive to my line of reasoning given we're way past 1949 and the state isn't failing. And the ones that fail didn't learn the lesson. Don't lie to yourself about hitting the plan targets. Vietnam is also mostly centrally planned and seems to be doing what the state says it is.

I grew up under an authoritarian regime, and I am heavily biased against them. It is impossible for me to give an untainted opinion on this subject.

Has China been successful since 1949? By many measures, yes it has. However, in my bones, I know that when there is no chance of losing an election, corruption will run rampant and eventually reach critical mass.

Xi anointing himself emperor and steadily getting rid of many high-ranking officials who question his final authority, is to me, the most obvious example of the wave peaking before it breaks. When Xi became leader for life it was a tacit admission that "the system" had begun to fail, therefore extraordinary measures had to be taken.

Re: China's Real Economic Crisis

#16

Post by ggm »

consumer451 wrote: post #15
ggm wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I can take that as supportive to my line of reasoning given we're way past 1949 and the state isn't failing. And the ones that fail didn't learn the lesson. Don't lie to yourself about hitting the plan targets. Vietnam is also mostly centrally planned and seems to be doing what the state says it is.

I grew up under an authoritarian regime, and I am heavily biased against them. It is impossible for me to give an untainted opinion on this subject. Has China been successful since 1949? By many measures, yes it has. However, in my bones, I know that when there is no chance of losing an election, corruption will run rampant and eventually reach critical mass. Xi anointing himself emperor and steadily getting rid of m…

None of this alters the fundamentals about the checkpoints to reality. Sure, they can drift from observed outcomes, but to the extent China (or any nation state) trades internationally, it's capacity to supply, and acquire goods and services and raw materials to meet external market demand present an objective reality.

Can you know if the published reserves are as large (or small) as suggested? No. But you can reflect on the terms of trade and decide if they are better or worse than you expected in the light of reality.

DPRK is supplying shells to russia for the war in Ukraine. This speaks both to the DPRK capacity to manufacture and supply shells, their quality (the rate of duds) and the industrial capacity inside the FSU such that it requires this to meet expected demand. These are the kind(s) of measures in reality which make it very unlikely sustaining "lies" about the economy can work long-term: Other people can draw their own inferences.

Planned economies set goals. China set specific economic goals. Failure to deliver has consequence. If they miss targets there is an internal conversation which in due course we hear about. If they exceed target there are consequences and a conversation in due course we hear about. If a goal is met but the next cycles goals are radically different that tells a story too: if your demand remains but they cannot supply, their prior ability to supply must have had consequences or some other aspect of the econnomy has changed.

In any event, planning an economy on false data is an exercise in peak frustration for the staff concerned. It's less likely anyone pushes paper for a fake outcome, the stakes are too high.

I view this as similar to differential analysis in cryptography. Heat of the chip die tells a story. Where the work is done tells a story. Remember, aircraft and satellites fly the world 24/7 so it's not like an open cut mine can be hidden, or the spoil heaps of a deep mine, and the extent they grow is governed by the laws of physics: you can only pile soil so high before you have to slope it. So even things as unlikely as overflight by remote sensing satellites can tell you about the fundamentals of mining, industrial activity.

"success" here has many measures. I'm focussed on the one which relates to the core topic, the economy. There are other measures, the demographics for instance which tell a tale of a cohort "missing" during the Mao famine years, and in due course will tell a tale of covid.

Re: China's Real Economic Crisis

#17

Post by petermcneeley »

refurb wrote: post #14
petermcneeley wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If "finance, insurance ... " and "Government" are actually the drivers to GDP growth then one has quite a bit more to worry about than the fact that this number is a mere 2.4% I was more referring to growth in the value of the companies in the snp 500. https://insight.factset.com/are-the-magnificent-7-the-top-co... Why I responded initially was because the focus on GDP per capita. This isnt a great way to compare liv…

Are you suggesting financial services aren’t “real GDP”? Why? And instead of GDP you think S&P is a better metric? It’s even less relevant than GDP to QOL.

No sure if you will see this so I will simply summarize

1. I dont think it makes much sense to compare GDP per capita of china and the USA when trying to understand the power of their economies. It is the excessively demos thinking that causes one to focus on GDP per capita.

2. I dont think the prices of things are the same in China vs USA. I dont mean simply rice or rent but say building a road or a bridge.

3. Following from this I dont think one can compare QoL based on GPD per capita. It is also very hard to compare QoL which is a human lived experience thing between different societies. Whereas one can more easily compare the USA to Canada.

3. Economic financialization is generally seen as a bad thing. And government services tend to be inefficient. So GDP growth in these areas is either a bad sign or just a sign of faulty data.

4. The digital tech sector is growing. Other sectors have slow growth. This is reflected in the SNP500.

5. America has started protecting its tech sector. EV cars. Phones. Chips.

One could go on but overall I think (as a materialist) these trends point to a precarious position for the USA economy.

Re: China's Real Economic Crisis

#18

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

consumer451 wrote: post #3
patrickhogan1 wrote: post #2

China grew 5.2% last year and is growing faster than the US this year. Clearly problems with how they allow startups to operate but growth is happening. Do you trust the numbers? That’s another story.

I don’t understand how anyone can trust the numbers coming out of Russia or China. In both cases, there is zero transparency.

This is not at all true about the Chinese economy. The Chinese economy is tightly integrated into the world economy, and there are many ways to check their numbers. For every widget they export, there is a foreign importer. For everything they import, there is a foreign exporter. There are foreign companies that are heavily invested in most sectors of the Chinese economy.

The idea that China is a black box that no information comes out of is just horribly out of date. This isn't the Mao era of a sealed-off China. This is the era of international China.

The government itself does not like fake numbers, because they render economic policy ineffective. Beijing needs to know what is going on in the provinces. Generating fake numbers for public consumption and then a private set of real numbers would be a monumental undertaking that would be impossible to pull off over the long term for a country with as large and complex an economy as China's. Provinces have tried to fudge numbers in the past, and Beijing has punished them when it found out, because doing so goes against the interests of the central government.

Re: China's Real Economic Crisis

#19

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

consumer451 wrote: post #11
ggm wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There has to be some basis to link public numbers with reality because very large sums of money aren't invested without more due diligence than a HN sceptical hot take. People dislike the one party state but they work with it because the fundamentals work. Temporary glitches happen, informing central planning false numbers is unsustainable in the long term, you can't hide the bodies and waste forever.

> informing central planning false numbers is unsustainable in the long term, you can't hide the bodies and waste forever. I would argue that this is a major reason why modern history is littered with the corpses of authoritarian regimes. They "work great" until the lie-debt stacks up to the point where it is undeniable.

China has developed at an insanely rapid pace. Just go and look around.

Just 25 years ago, Beijing was a city of bicycles with no modern highways and just two subway lines. Now, there are 27 subway lines and modern highways everywhere, but even with that, the car traffic (increasingly from Chinese-made electric cars) is unbearable at rush hour.

This is not a collapsing country that's barely fumbling along by hiding up its decrepitude. It's a place where the signs of massive progress are everywhere.

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