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OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

nytimes.com

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Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#11

Post by alex_young »

cs702 wrote: post #4

Given the high risk, investors likely want a shot of earning at least a 10x return. $157 billion x 10 = $1.57 trillion, greater than META's current market capitalization. Greater returns would require even more aggressive assumptions. For example, a 30x return would require OpenAI to become the world's most valuable company by a large margin. All I can say to the investors, with the best of hopes, is: Good luck! You'…

Maybe they view it as at least a sure thing for a 2x return...

Another issue here is that at this value level they are now required to become a public company and a direct competitor to their largest partners. It will be interesting to see how the competitive landscape changes.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#12

Post by cubefox »

jjice wrote: post #9
lupire wrote: post #3

Does OpenAI have a moat?

As a layman outsider, it doesn't seem like it. Anthropic is doing great work (I personally prefer Claude) and now there are so many quality LLMs coming out that I don't know if OpenAI is particularly special anymore. They had a lead at first, but it feels like many others are catching up. I could be _very_ wrong though.

They recently released a new model, called "o1-preview", that is significantly ahead of the competition in terms of mathematical reasoning.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#14

Post by throwup238 »

> The new fund-raising round, led by the investment firm Thrive Capital, values OpenAI at $157 billion, according to two people with knowledge of the deal. Microsoft, the chipmaker Nvidia, the tech conglomerate SoftBank, the United Arab Emirates investment firm MGX and others are also putting money into OpenAI.

Yeah, that bodes well. Led by Jared Kushner's brother's VC firm with the UAE's sovereign wealth fund and Softbank following. If not for Microsoft and NVIDIA, this would be the ultimate dumb money round.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#18

Post by yumraj »

cs702 wrote: post #4

Given the high risk, investors likely want a shot of earning at least a 10x return. $157 billion x 10 = $1.57 trillion, greater than META's current market capitalization. Greater returns would require even more aggressive assumptions. For example, a 30x return would require OpenAI to become the world's most valuable company by a large margin. All I can say to the investors, with the best of hopes, is: Good luck! You'…

For “an” AI company, that can achieve market dominance, to achieve 1.57T market cap is not unrealistic.

I think the question is, is OpenAI that company and is market dominance possible given all other players? I believe some investors are betting that it is OpenAI, while you and others are sceptic.

Personally I agree with you, or rather hope that it is not, primarily as I don’t trust Sam Altman and wouldn’t want him to have that power. But so far things are looking good for OpenAI.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#19

Post by senko »

cs702 wrote: post #4

Given the high risk, investors likely want a shot of earning at least a 10x return. $157 billion x 10 = $1.57 trillion, greater than META's current market capitalization. Greater returns would require even more aggressive assumptions. For example, a 30x return would require OpenAI to become the world's most valuable company by a large margin. All I can say to the investors, with the best of hopes, is: Good luck! You'…

At their stage and size, it's probably 3x-5x. Still sky high!
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