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Earth Is on the Brink of Breaching a 7th of Nine 'Planetary Boundaries'

smithsonianmag.com

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Re: Earth Is on the Brink of Breaching a 7th of Nine 'Planetary Boundaries'

#11

Post by bbor »

Never loved this framework because the arbitrary quantization can make things look better than they are (“sure temps are up 4° but we’re still banning aerosols, so drill baby drill!”) but it’s certainly a good starter framework for getting people’s attention.

And to those that read this and just give up: please don’t. We’ve done incredible things as a species, and today’s world is not based in unchangeable natural constants, but rather social constructs. We can win. And assuming we can’t is, frankly, immoral. What will you tell your grandchildren?

https://slrpnk.net

Re: Earth Is on the Brink of Breaching a 7th of Nine 'Planetary Boundaries'

#12

Post by lotsofpulp »

withinboredom wrote: post #5

I’ve kind of accepted we are screwed. Whether I am alive when shit hits the fan or not is another question. But seeing that people are trying to build satellite mirrors to put MORE solar energy into the planet without even thinking about it for more than a few minutes, I would say we are more screwed than we realize. The first law of stupidity applies.

Where is the assumption coming from that a “shit hits the fan” event will happen?

What if it is just a slow degradation in myriad aspects of quality of life only felt over the course of decades?

Re: Earth Is on the Brink of Breaching a 7th of Nine 'Planetary Boundaries'

#15

Post by cwillu »

micromacrofoot wrote: post #10
cwillu wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“These boundaries are not tipping points—it’s possible to recover from passing them” Debatable whether that is completely walking back the headline, but the headline is clearly trying to give the impression it's irreversible without actually making a claim that could thereby be defeated: “brink”, “breaching”, “boundaries” “support life” are all very suggestive of irreversible doom, and yet…

that's not really walking it back... recovery is much more difficult than not causing the problem in the first place, and because it can be reversed doesn't mean it will be

Like I said, it's english prose and the applicability of “walking it back” is subject to debate. I'm not arguing the point, just pulling out the obvious triggering line and explaining where I think the sentiment is coming from.

Re: Earth Is on the Brink of Breaching a 7th of Nine 'Planetary Boundaries'

#16

Post by gwill »

cwillu wrote: post #9
bbor wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so?

“These boundaries are not tipping points—it’s possible to recover from passing them” Debatable whether that is completely walking back the headline, but the headline is clearly trying to give the impression it's irreversible without actually making a claim that could thereby be defeated: “brink”, “breaching”, “boundaries” “support life” are all very suggestive of irreversible doom, and yet…

that isn't walking back that we're on the brink of breaching the 7th boundary. it just adds more detail into what these boundaries are.

Re: Earth Is on the Brink of Breaching a 7th of Nine 'Planetary Boundaries'

#18

Post by djbusby »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #12
withinboredom wrote: post #5

I’ve kind of accepted we are screwed. Whether I am alive when shit hits the fan or not is another question. But seeing that people are trying to build satellite mirrors to put MORE solar energy into the planet without even thinking about it for more than a few minutes, I would say we are more screwed than we realize. The first law of stupidity applies.

Where is the assumption coming from that a “shit hits the fan” event will happen? What if it is just a slow degradation in myriad aspects of quality of life only felt over the course of decades?

Yep, multiple shits hitting multiple fans.

Re: Earth Is on the Brink of Breaching a 7th of Nine 'Planetary Boundaries'

#19

Post by bbor »

cwillu wrote: post #9
bbor wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so?

“These boundaries are not tipping points—it’s possible to recover from passing them” Debatable whether that is completely walking back the headline, but the headline is clearly trying to give the impression it's irreversible without actually making a claim that could thereby be defeated: “brink”, “breaching”, “boundaries” “support life” are all very suggestive of irreversible doom, and yet…

Ah. I see where you’re coming from but don’t really agree - I think you’re (understandably!) bringing in that assumption yourself from general climate worries. Countries have boundaries that you can come back from after crossing, as do people. I mean, they’re kinda describing the framework directly.

How else would you phrase it? “About to cross a line indicating serious danger”? Maybe “approaching a scientific benchmark tied to catastrophic risk”?

Re: Earth Is on the Brink of Breaching a 7th of Nine 'Planetary Boundaries'

#20

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

withinboredom wrote: post #5

I’ve kind of accepted we are screwed. Whether I am alive when shit hits the fan or not is another question. But seeing that people are trying to build satellite mirrors to put MORE solar energy into the planet without even thinking about it for more than a few minutes, I would say we are more screwed than we realize. The first law of stupidity applies.

The modern era of humans roughly coincides with Earth's coldest period over the last 485M years: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk3705

Even some of the worst predictions for where temperatures are headed before we get close to Net Zero emissions don't put us above historical averages.

To be clear, if the worst predictions come to light, that will be bad for people. But the planet will be fine.

I doubt some extra solar radiation will turn the Earth into Venus or Mars.

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