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Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

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Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#11

Post by gwern »

> So why quit? Three reasons. First, I’ve felt for a few years now that the startups I’m seeing don’t seem so much like progress as just shopkeeping. This isn’t a dig: there’s money to be made razoring a thin slice off a huge market, and there’s certainly less risk in that than there is building a market from scratch. But it’s just not that interesting. The excitement I had as a 14-year old in 1979 trying to understand everything there was to know about computers, because this was something that could radically improve people’s lives, I just don’t get anymore. And not because people’s lives, the people who have access to the tech, aren’t better, I think they are (although this, of course, has not been as unalloyed as I imagined as a 14-year old.) But because I think the tech is no longer improving lives, it’s just maintaining the current status quo. It just feels, I don’t know, done.

This is remarkable to me because I would say that right now is one of the most exciting times to invest ever. We are in one of the new platforms: VC hasn't been so interesting to me since ~2013, when cryptocurrency offered a whole new greenfield, or 2008, when the iPhone changed everything for mobile, or ~1998, when the WWW began to mature enough to allow greenfield everything. (With an honorable mention to VR - still the new platform of the future...) Just think about LLMs and programming! Programming hasn't been about to change this much, this fundamentally, since the invention of networks or timesharing, perhaps. How can you look at this and write it all off as 'shopkeeping' with no 'building a market from scratch' and 'just not that interesting'?

I think maybe the real reason is the next one: they're just older, and no longer have the gumption and energy to try to dive into the Shiny New Thing, and it's time to hang up their hat and call it a day, leaving it to the next generation.

Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#12

Post by Pet_Ant »

stonogo wrote: post #9
nis0s wrote: post #5

> The excitement I had as a 14-year old in 1979 trying to understand everything there was to know about computers, because this was something that could radically improve people’s lives, ... it’s just maintaining the current status quo. It just feels, I don’t know, done. How can anyone say this when there’s so much amazing research happening in most universities, especially in computer science and engineering. It cou…

Your argument would benefit from some examples of amazing research. Most of what I see is better implementations of the status quo. While I am excited about CHERI and similar efforts, they're hardly revolutionary.

I assume you mean: https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/security/ctsrd/cheri/ “Capability Hardware Enhanced RISC Instructions (CHERI)”

Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#13

Post by drzzhan »

archero wrote: post #8
Pet_Ant wrote: post #3

> First, I’ve felt for a few years now that the startups I’m seeing don’t seem so much like progress as just shopkeeping. ... it’s just not that interesting. The excitement I had as a 14-year old in 1979 trying to understand everything there was to know about computers, because this was something that could radically improve people’s lives, ... it’s just maintaining the current status quo. It just feels, I don’t know…

I’m guessing you meant LLMs, but I choose to imagine that you’re just really excited about LLVM

Maybe they really meant LLVM? Large language vision model.

Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#14

Post by Pet_Ant »

drzzhan wrote: post #13
archero wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m guessing you meant LLMs, but I choose to imagine that you’re just really excited about LLVM

Maybe they really meant LLVM? Large language vision model.

I meant LLM. Though LLVM is very cool, it's not revolutionary.

Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#15

Post by dullcrisp »

Pet_Ant wrote: post #3

> First, I’ve felt for a few years now that the startups I’m seeing don’t seem so much like progress as just shopkeeping. ... it’s just not that interesting. The excitement I had as a 14-year old in 1979 trying to understand everything there was to know about computers, because this was something that could radically improve people’s lives, ... it’s just maintaining the current status quo. It just feels, I don’t know…

Like CAD designs? Or 3D printer manufacturing? Is 3D printing creating any work?

Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#17

Post by cortesoft »

> If it were true that financiers on the whole make profits slowly for years and then, every once in a while, lose them all and more in sudden “black swan” events, then there should be some way to lose money slowly for years and then suddenly make it all back and more. Black swans are awful in traditional finance, but they’re the winning lottery ticket in venture capital.

Isn't this what every VC is doing? This is why VCs invest in a bunch of startups and expect most of them to fail.

Matt Levine writes about this a lot; he talks about how the real risk for VCs isn't losing 100% on a failed startup, the risk is missing out on the one that hits it big.

I am not sure why the writer thinks this strategy is novel.

Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#19

Post by mikepurvis »

dullcrisp wrote: post #15
Pet_Ant wrote: post #3

> First, I’ve felt for a few years now that the startups I’m seeing don’t seem so much like progress as just shopkeeping. ... it’s just not that interesting. The excitement I had as a 14-year old in 1979 trying to understand everything there was to know about computers, because this was something that could radically improve people’s lives, ... it’s just maintaining the current status quo. It just feels, I don’t know…

Like CAD designs? Or 3D printer manufacturing? Is 3D printing creating any work?

A lot still needs to be done to make the design pipeline accessible to normal people. Any clown can set up a bambu and print objects they find/buy online, but it's a huge learning curve to get from that point to being able to actually create your own parts, especially stuff that integrates with the complex shapes of some existing object.

Recent examples from my life include wanting mounts for flashlights, a thing to attach to bike handlebars, a shelf bracket, a battery cover for a tool, a piece of a bird feeder, etc. Where is the interface that lets me scan the existing objects I need to integrate with and then quickly assemble prefab subcomponents into a printable design and seamlessly iterate on that?

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