Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#11

Post by fragmede » Tue, Sep 10, 2024, 10:00 AM UTC

lm28469 wrote: post #8

anonzzzies wrote: post #4

So, Musk did repeat the FSD 'any moment' last earnings call and robotaxis using it this september (now) as well. And then they do this. That is why I found it very strange that anyone believes his recent Mars timelines; people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off. Don't get me wrong, besides his political gibberish and twitter m…

Remember when tesla was about to release full self driving cars "next year" and uber said they'd buy every single car tesla would produce aha That was like 10 years ago, and we still don't have anything even remotely close to self driving besides the few $$$ experimental cars driving the long straight roads of ever sunny california

Have you tried it? it's not there but it's close. Even Ford's Blue Cruise is half way there.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#12

Post by grecy » Tue, Sep 10, 2024, 10:31 AM UTC

anonzzzies wrote: post #4

So, Musk did repeat the FSD 'any moment' last earnings call and robotaxis using it this september (now) as well. And then they do this. That is why I found it very strange that anyone believes his recent Mars timelines; people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off. Don't get me wrong, besides his political gibberish and twitter m…

Obviously he is wildly optimist About timelines, but you can’t deny SpaceX have done incredible things that literally every expert said was impossible.

I still like his quote “SpaceX makes the impossible merely late”

Fully self driving cars and people on Mars will happen. And I feel pretty certain Tesla and SpaceX will be at least a bit responsible for pushing it to happen faster than if they didn’t exist.

Of course they are not perfect, but on the whole I think we’re better off because they exist.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#13

Post by peutetre » Tue, Sep 10, 2024, 10:53 AM UTC

grecy wrote: post #12

anonzzzies wrote: post #4

So, Musk did repeat the FSD 'any moment' last earnings call and robotaxis using it this september (now) as well. And then they do this. That is why I found it very strange that anyone believes his recent Mars timelines; people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off. Don't get me wrong, besides his political gibberish and twitter m…

Obviously he is wildly optimist About timelines, but you can’t deny SpaceX have done incredible things that literally every expert said was impossible. I still like his quote “SpaceX makes the impossible merely late” Fully self driving cars and people on Mars will happen. And I feel pretty certain Tesla and SpaceX will be at least a bit responsible for pushing it to happen faster than if they didn’t exist. Of course…

> Obviously he is wildly optimist About timelines

10 years of lies is not optimism. It's just lies:

https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#14

Post by chaosist » Tue, Sep 10, 2024, 11:11 AM UTC

anonzzzies wrote: post #4

So, Musk did repeat the FSD 'any moment' last earnings call and robotaxis using it this september (now) as well. And then they do this. That is why I found it very strange that anyone believes his recent Mars timelines; people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off. Don't get me wrong, besides his political gibberish and twitter m…

The "or" is not correct IMO in the last part. It is very easy to believe things that just happen to increase your own wealth.

He says crazy things that he believes, it manipulates investors and as his wealth increases he just believes the crazy things more.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#15

Post by lm28469 » Tue, Sep 10, 2024, 11:21 AM UTC

fragmede wrote: post #11

lm28469 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember when tesla was about to release full self driving cars "next year" and uber said they'd buy every single car tesla would produce aha That was like 10 years ago, and we still don't have anything even remotely close to self driving besides the few $$$ experimental cars driving the long straight roads of ever sunny california

Have you tried it? it's not there but it's close. Even Ford's Blue Cruise is half way there.

Try driving in a small Italian town, on a Swiss mountain roads during a snow storm, &c.

The last 20% are the hardest so if you're only 50% of the way there you haven't even started the hard part

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#16

Post by mrkeen » Tue, Sep 10, 2024, 11:26 AM UTC

torginus wrote: post #6

My guess is that they sold FSD for a lump sum while the tech was experimental. Now that they see the light at the end of the tunnel, they're planning to transition to a subscription model, and the cars that do have it will slowly fall out of circulation as they age, with many of them not having the right hardware for the real thing anyways. This is similar to what they did with supercharging.

What software breakthroughs have they made that make you believe that FSD won't be 5 years away for the rest of time?

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#17

Post by penjelly » Tue, Sep 10, 2024, 11:29 AM UTC

fragmede wrote: post #11

lm28469 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember when tesla was about to release full self driving cars "next year" and uber said they'd buy every single car tesla would produce aha That was like 10 years ago, and we still don't have anything even remotely close to self driving besides the few $$$ experimental cars driving the long straight roads of ever sunny california

Have you tried it? it's not there but it's close. Even Ford's Blue Cruise is half way there.

the problem is, even if you solve 80% of cases 100% of the time, those 20% of outliers are not easy to get 100%. How should a autonomous car behave when it sees a basketball bounce across the road near a playground? Any human would assume: "there might be kids, I should slow down even if the ball isn't obstructing my path" a car isn't going to be able to make those decisions.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#18

Post by mrkeen » Tue, Sep 10, 2024, 11:31 AM UTC

anonzzzies wrote: post #4

So, Musk did repeat the FSD 'any moment' last earnings call and robotaxis using it this september (now) as well. And then they do this. That is why I found it very strange that anyone believes his recent Mars timelines; people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off. Don't get me wrong, besides his political gibberish and twitter m…

> people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off.

This is the kind of thing that makes me believe that class solidarity is real.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#19

Post by anonzzzies » Tue, Sep 10, 2024, 11:44 AM UTC

fragmede wrote: post #11

lm28469 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember when tesla was about to release full self driving cars "next year" and uber said they'd buy every single car tesla would produce aha That was like 10 years ago, and we still don't have anything even remotely close to self driving besides the few $$$ experimental cars driving the long straight roads of ever sunny california

Have you tried it? it's not there but it's close. Even Ford's Blue Cruise is half way there.

It is further than my cheapo cruise control + lane assist ; on long modern straight roads and in traffic jams, it's almost fsd to me. In other situations it is not functional at all. So these modern ones are better but how much?

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#20

Post by torginus » Tue, Sep 10, 2024, 11:44 AM UTC

mrkeen wrote: post #16

torginus wrote: post #6

My guess is that they sold FSD for a lump sum while the tech was experimental. Now that they see the light at the end of the tunnel, they're planning to transition to a subscription model, and the cars that do have it will slowly fall out of circulation as they age, with many of them not having the right hardware for the real thing anyways. This is similar to what they did with supercharging.

What software breakthroughs have they made that make you believe that FSD won't be 5 years away for the rest of time?

Not sure - but Waymo and a few Chinese vendors already have self-driving robotaxis in production. That, combined with the AI boom, tells me that building a self-driving car (even if geofenced and/or L3) is on the horizon.

If that's the case, Tesla will probably figure this out as well.