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In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

businessinsider.com

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Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#11

Post by pjmlp »

piperswe wrote: post #6
mrinfinitiesx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the enterprise stuff is programmers become more tool-assisted, so fewer programmers are needed. A team of two seniors and 6 juniors can just be two seniors. As you said, it's mostly breaking down a problem and knowing what's needed, then telling it what components are needed. 'Make me a function that does this and that' I use it all the time to make things I know I can make but it makes it, if it makes it a w…

If we're replacing 2 seniors and 6 juniors with just 2 seniors, where are you gonna get more seniors when the 2 retire?

The same way that currently most HR departments only care about people with at least 10 years experience in exactly the same stack the company is using, and more often than not, training is not even part of the picture.

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#12

Post by 01100011 »

djmips wrote: post #4

I have yet to see a significant increase in productivity from AI. I wonder where they are extrapolating from?

They're extrapolating from their beliefs which they must hold given the investments they've already made in a fairly immature technology.

They have to believe that AI will lower their staffing costs and start generating serious revenues because to admit otherwise means they have failed to present an honest picture to their investors.

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#13

Post by smegsicle »

al_borland wrote: post #9
mrinfinitiesx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the enterprise stuff is programmers become more tool-assisted, so fewer programmers are needed. A team of two seniors and 6 juniors can just be two seniors. As you said, it's mostly breaking down a problem and knowing what's needed, then telling it what components are needed. 'Make me a function that does this and that' I use it all the time to make things I know I can make but it makes it, if it makes it a w…

I did see a take from someone (it may have been Alan Kay, but I could be misremembering) who said no one should layoff programmers due to AI. If AI makes programmers more productive, and everyone is getting it, they will need everyone to keep up with the competition. 2 seniors + AI may be able to have the same output at the 2 seniors + 6 juniors you mention. But if their competitors keep all those people and add AI,…

jevons paradox

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#15

Post by pram »

fragmede wrote: post #8
mrinfinitiesx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the enterprise stuff is programmers become more tool-assisted, so fewer programmers are needed. A team of two seniors and 6 juniors can just be two seniors. As you said, it's mostly breaking down a problem and knowing what's needed, then telling it what components are needed. 'Make me a function that does this and that' I use it all the time to make things I know I can make but it makes it, if it makes it a w…

try https://github.com/OpenInterpreter/open-interpreter . sysadmining stuff just got a whole lot easier. I've been admining Linux systems for over two decades, but I give LLMs a shot at dealing with some stupid Unix shit so I don't have to. it won't get 100% of the problems, but I can ask it to fix the mess made of, say, my system SSL certificate authorities, and it won't judge me for saying SSL and not TLS and it'll…

I've had very mixed experience with LLMs (Perplexity) and sysadmin stuff. More often than not I ask questions for specific CLI invocations and it will literally just make stuff up. This is even after (supposedly) Googling the documentation and analyzing it.

Even today I got terrible advice from Claude about calling Close() on a database in Golang. This kind of stuff would screw over a junior Dev who didn't know better:

"You're right to question this, and I apologize for the oversight in my previous response. Let me clarify: If you're using a connection pool (which is typically the case with sql.Open), you generally don't need to (and shouldn't) call Close() on the *sql.DB object after each operation."

I feel like all AI is doing atm is giving me extreme paranoia from being gaslit so much lol

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#16

Post by tivert »

raman325 wrote: post #10
copperroof wrote: post #5

I’m so glad I left. The execs there are comically incompetent.

I am missing something, what is being said that signals incompetence?

> I am missing something, what is being said that signals incompetence?

You could start at the first quoted remark: "If you go forward 24 months from now, or some amount of time — I can't exactly predict where it is — it's possible that most developers are not coding."

1. Doesn't seem to demonstrate understanding of what developers actually do.

2. Poor understanding of the limitations of the technology he's talking about.

3. Totally unrealistic timeline.

4. The kind of claim that has been made countless times, about countless technologies, and has never panned out yet. That doesn't mean it won't ever pan out, but it means it warrants a huge amount of skepticism.

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#18

Post by notinmykernel »

copperroof wrote: post #5

I’m so glad I left. The execs there are comically incompetent.

Agreed. It's this kind of delusion that gets promoted to the top. Meanwhile talented persons capable of building SOTA solutions are let go in droves.

Amazon ain't it. "Democratizing AI" is a cover for the fact that Amazon has no models worthy of contention, so they have to save face by funding and serving up other company's models.

One could argue, "oh they have that guy from AllenAI." But where are AllenAI's code generation models? Where are AllenAI's LLMs? Nowhere.

Amazon leadership is horribly incompetent.

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#19

Post by hnthr_w_y »

djmips wrote: post #4

I have yet to see a significant increase in productivity from AI. I wonder where they are extrapolating from?

There are two sides to the story. Look at the unemployment rates or recent layoffs, a 2% difference is enough to disrupt a lot of things. You don't need a lot.

AI tools has made a significant impact already. But that significant number isn't '100%'.

On the main topic, of course you can't replace a team of 8 compromised of seniors, mids, and juniors with just 2 seniors. Nowhere near that.

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#20

Post by tivert »

piperswe wrote: post #6
mrinfinitiesx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the enterprise stuff is programmers become more tool-assisted, so fewer programmers are needed. A team of two seniors and 6 juniors can just be two seniors. As you said, it's mostly breaking down a problem and knowing what's needed, then telling it what components are needed. 'Make me a function that does this and that' I use it all the time to make things I know I can make but it makes it, if it makes it a w…

If we're replacing 2 seniors and 6 juniors with just 2 seniors, where are you gonna get more seniors when the 2 retire?

> If we're replacing 2 seniors and 6 juniors with just 2 seniors, where are you gonna get more seniors when the 2 retire?

Happily drive off a cliff?

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