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Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

thehobbyist.substack.com

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Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#11

Post by brigadier132 »

_gmax0 wrote: post #10
brigadier132 wrote: post #5

This is why, for earning money, you should participate in positive sum games like the real economy. Poker is worse than 0 sum, its negative sum.

Care to elaborate on how the real economy is positive sum and poker is negative sum?

Poker has a rake and the amount of wealth in the system is the money people put on the table (not even factoring in that gambling winnings are taxed). Meaning the total wealth decreases for every hand played in a raked game. Economic transactions and increasing efficiency are positive sum. You can combine pieces of metal into new alloys and machinery which are more valuable than the sum of their parts. This is positive sum. If two people trade they only engage in trade if the transaction is mutually beneficial.

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#12

Post by brigadier132 »

snikeris wrote: post #9
brigadier132 wrote: post #5

This is why, for earning money, you should participate in positive sum games like the real economy. Poker is worse than 0 sum, its negative sum.

Perhaps in a casino taking a rake. But if you're playing w/ friends? The good times make it positive sum. Even in a casino, the players can be getting enough utility / enjoyment out of the game that it's positive sum.

Yes you are right but “pros” are playing with rake typically.

In a way you can consider poker 0 sum or positive sum depending on the utility you derive from the enjoyment of gambling. But that should also factor in the negative utility from gamblers that lose

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#13

Post by PaulRobinson »

brigadier132 wrote: post #11
_gmax0 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Care to elaborate on how the real economy is positive sum and poker is negative sum?

Poker has a rake and the amount of wealth in the system is the money people put on the table (not even factoring in that gambling winnings are taxed). Meaning the total wealth decreases for every hand played in a raked game. Economic transactions and increasing efficiency are positive sum. You can combine pieces of metal into new alloys and machinery which are more valuable than the sum of their parts. This is positi…

What do you think two poker players still in a hand raising each other are doing? They both still think it’s mutually beneficial. The maths if you have full visibility show it isn’t, but I’d argue that’s the same of the “real” economy too. In the latter example we can point to long-standing increasing income and wealth inequality as a proxy for the house rake at poker.

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#14

Post by [deleted] »

brigadier132 wrote: post #11
_gmax0 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Care to elaborate on how the real economy is positive sum and poker is negative sum?

Poker has a rake and the amount of wealth in the system is the money people put on the table (not even factoring in that gambling winnings are taxed). Meaning the total wealth decreases for every hand played in a raked game. Economic transactions and increasing efficiency are positive sum. You can combine pieces of metal into new alloys and machinery which are more valuable than the sum of their parts. This is positi…

[deleted]

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#15

Post by annacappa »

The reason poker is a successful game is because bad players can win. Otherwise why would a person who was bad at the game stake any money at all. Personally I would rather take the luck out of it and attempt to normalize (perhaps by playing duplicate hands) but I imagine it would be quite boring for non poker nerds and therefore non lucrative for everyone.

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#16

Post by trhway »

saucymew wrote: post #8

"Poker is a combination of luck and skill. People think mastering the skill is hard, but they're wrong. The trick to poker is mastering the luck. That's philosophy. Understanding luck is philosophy, and there are some people who aren't ever gonna fade it. That's what sets poker apart. And that's what keeps everyone coming back for more." -- Shut Up & Deal

>Poker is a combination of luck and skill

Luck follows (or at least positively correlates) with skill :) 30+ years ago in our company of friends in the university dormitories we had a guy who had the card deck handling skills of a major illusionist (and those skills were naturally a source of significant income for him). The guy was also tremendously lucky - well beside mere being alive and without broken bones while applying his skills for income :) - in particular once he won an amount enough to buy 1-bdrm apt in St.Petersburg back then on a scratch lottery ticket that he bought at a random place on our way while we were walking to some business meeting in a city that we just arrived that morning. If it were a skillful illusion, then it was way beyond anything i've heard or seen before :)

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#17

Post by brigadier132 »

PaulRobinson wrote: post #13
brigadier132 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poker has a rake and the amount of wealth in the system is the money people put on the table (not even factoring in that gambling winnings are taxed). Meaning the total wealth decreases for every hand played in a raked game. Economic transactions and increasing efficiency are positive sum. You can combine pieces of metal into new alloys and machinery which are more valuable than the sum of their parts. This is positi…

What do you think two poker players still in a hand raising each other are doing? They both still think it’s mutually beneficial. The maths if you have full visibility show it isn’t, but I’d argue that’s the same of the “real” economy too. In the latter example we can point to long-standing increasing income and wealth inequality as a proxy for the house rake at poker.

When two people are continually raising eachother in a poker game they are doing it because there is an probability of winning the pot. It remains zero sum.

edit: The economy being positive sum has nothing to do with the way wealth is distributed.

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#18

Post by ProjectArcturis »

ryandrake wrote: post #6

His section on volume rings pretty true. I used to play a lot recreationally. And by "a lot" I mean probably on the medium-to-high side of recreational, but not even close to pro. Like attending every major regional event and attending WSOP every year for 10 years. Both cash and tournaments. I've stopped because of how much of a tiring grind poker is, and how much time you have to dedicate in order to make it financi…

It's the hardest way to make an easy living.

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#20

Post by cortesoft »

annacappa wrote: post #15

The reason poker is a successful game is because bad players can win. Otherwise why would a person who was bad at the game stake any money at all. Personally I would rather take the luck out of it and attempt to normalize (perhaps by playing duplicate hands) but I imagine it would be quite boring for non poker nerds and therefore non lucrative for everyone.

> Personally I would rather take the luck out of it

Then you should play Chess, or some other perfect information game. There are popular games that don't involve luck.

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