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We need superknowledge before superintelligence

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Re: We need superknowledge before superintelligence

#11

Post by talldayo »

willbryk720 wrote: post #10
m-i-l wrote: post #5

> "We’ll soon have near-AGI intelligences (GPT-5)" Does anyone technical believe GPT-5 will be even remotely close to anything which has even a vague resemblance to AGI?

I'm technical and it wouldn't be surprising if GPT-5 will be able to code up small projects like an intern, perform complex actions across the web like an executive assistant, understand images and video better than most humans. If you described this to someone 20 years ago, I think this would qualify as near-AGI intelligence. It's totally possible that getting to true AGI -- where you could trust it with pretty much…

GPT-4, GPT-3 and GPT-2 all coded up small projects, though. If GPT-5 is just another "it gets it right sometimes" dice-roll machine then it won't matter how many modalities it has. It will be DOA, and we'll all be pinning out hopes on GPT-6.

This shtick is running out of steam, and it's becoming increasingly clear that Sam Altman (or anyone at OpenAI for that matter) doesn't have what it takes to keep it going. The honeymoon phase is over, you can't promise capabilities that don't exist without proving that they're possible in the first place. Superintelligence is one of those things.

Re: We need superknowledge before superintelligence

#12

Post by falcor84 »

talldayo wrote: post #11
willbryk720 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm technical and it wouldn't be surprising if GPT-5 will be able to code up small projects like an intern, perform complex actions across the web like an executive assistant, understand images and video better than most humans. If you described this to someone 20 years ago, I think this would qualify as near-AGI intelligence. It's totally possible that getting to true AGI -- where you could trust it with pretty much…

GPT-4, GPT-3 and GPT-2 all coded up small projects, though. If GPT-5 is just another "it gets it right sometimes" dice-roll machine then it won't matter how many modalities it has. It will be DOA, and we'll all be pinning out hopes on GPT-6. This shtick is running out of steam, and it's becoming increasingly clear that Sam Altman (or anyone at OpenAI for that matter) doesn't have what it takes to keep it going. The h…

> If GPT-5 is just another "it gets it right sometimes" dice-roll machine then it won't matter how many modalities it has. It will be DOA

Every single thing and every single person can be seen as a "dice-roll machine"; when I give even a senior engineer a task to take on this sprint, there's a significant chance they won't complete it that sprint (and it might just have been infeasible at all). At the end, all work boils down to the project management triangle (On Time, On Spec, On Budget - choose two), and the better the AIs get, the more tradeoffs we can choose from and the more and more we'll gradually be using them, regardless of whether we'd able to ever trust them to complete a task perfectly 100% of the time.

Re: We need superknowledge before superintelligence

#13

Post by falcor84 »

Am I the only one who had an issue with their example query of "give me all physics PhDs in NYC"? Are they really asking for a listing of all people living in NYC holding a PhD in physics? I can't shrug off the feeling that this is the sort of a request that The Terminator might make, just before filtering it further to those with the surname Connor. I for one feel that such queries should be somewhat difficult (at least beyond people who actively want to be found and put their credentials up on linkedin).

Re: We need superknowledge before superintelligence

#14

Post by alkalinity »

falcor84 wrote: post #13

Am I the only one who had an issue with their example query of "give me all physics PhDs in NYC"? Are they really asking for a listing of all people living in NYC holding a PhD in physics? I can't shrug off the feeling that this is the sort of a request that The Terminator might make, just before filtering it further to those with the surname Connor. I for one feel that such queries should be somewhat difficult (at l…

Key here is what is publicly available I think - agree though it's a fine line

Re: We need superknowledge before superintelligence

#16

Post by talldayo »

falcor84 wrote: post #12
talldayo wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPT-4, GPT-3 and GPT-2 all coded up small projects, though. If GPT-5 is just another "it gets it right sometimes" dice-roll machine then it won't matter how many modalities it has. It will be DOA, and we'll all be pinning out hopes on GPT-6. This shtick is running out of steam, and it's becoming increasingly clear that Sam Altman (or anyone at OpenAI for that matter) doesn't have what it takes to keep it going. The h…

> If GPT-5 is just another "it gets it right sometimes" dice-roll machine then it won't matter how many modalities it has. It will be DOA Every single thing and every single person can be seen as a "dice-roll machine"; when I give even a senior engineer a task to take on this sprint, there's a significant chance they won't complete it that sprint (and it might just have been infeasible at all). At the end, all work b…

If you want to be reductive, then sure. But even then, "superhuman intelligence" in this case literally means not being a dice-roll. I do not understand how you can pitch AGI without solving the hallucination problem, you might as well be selling people a random-number-generator that can do math with entropy.
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