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Batteries: How cheap can they get?

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Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#11

Post by mrob »

catlikesshrimp wrote: post #6
ss64 wrote: post #4

The cost of 50AH Li-Ion batteries is getting close to the point where they may start to compete with Lead acid for gas powered cars.

The environment be damned: Regarding price / energy density, yes. They even have weight / energy density advantage. But Lithium batteries can't be recycled. Saying "We are almost there" and "The future looks bright about it" is "moving fast and breaking things" again

Recovering lithium from batteries is not cost effective compared with mining new lithium. However, battery recycling is possible and still worth doing, because it recovers more valuable metals such as cobalt or copper.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#12

Post by icapybara »

I'd rather hear a projection from an engineer/scientist/operations person in the industry. This kinda reads like it's written by an armchair expert who thinks about batteries a lot, but doesn't have much to do with building that future being described.

Sometimes the technical details matter and projected scaling trends aren't an inevitability.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#13

Post by Aurornis »

ss64 wrote: post #4

The cost of 50AH Li-Ion batteries is getting close to the point where they may start to compete with Lead acid for gas powered cars.

Lithium batteries still have limitations with charging at low temperatures. OEMs can design systems that will warm the battery up to a temperature where it can be charged after the car is started, but it’s not nearly as simple as dropping a lead-acid battery in.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#15

Post by huijzer »

justahuman74 wrote: post #7
martythemaniak wrote: post #5

Current prices are kinda nutty and are largely determined by the size of your buy. Retail prices for home batteries (a few kWhs) are roughly $1000/kWh. A Model 3 gets you about $700/kWh (with two free motors and an ipad). A Tesla megapack is $290/kWh, but you have to spend $1000000 to get that price. Tesla probably gets cells from the factory at round $80-$90/kWh. Long-term it seems pretty reasonable that retail pric…

At $1k for 20kw/h, I'd be very tempted to massively over-panel the roof and front/back yard on pergolas, install 200kwh of battery and never deal with pg&e again

Exactly. This is what Tony Seba is talking about for 10 years already! He talked about this in his 2014 book Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#16

Post by jtbayly »

icapybara wrote: post #12

I'd rather hear a projection from an engineer/scientist/operations person in the industry. This kinda reads like it's written by an armchair expert who thinks about batteries a lot, but doesn't have much to do with building that future being described. Sometimes the technical details matter and projected scaling trends aren't an inevitability.

He claims the expert estimates have been wrong every year (too conservative).

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#17

Post by jvanderbot »

I would love a 5-20kwh battery backup in my home, I even have a place for it. But when I called my local solar/battery installer they said that it was illegal to install grid-charged battery backups in home. I live in Minnesota.

They even told me the power from a hypothetical solar rig is sold to the grid utility, not stored, and they give a discount on future winter rates as payment. This seems like a lousy deal.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#18

Post by philipkglass »

catlikesshrimp wrote: post #6
ss64 wrote: post #4

The cost of 50AH Li-Ion batteries is getting close to the point where they may start to compete with Lead acid for gas powered cars.

The environment be damned: Regarding price / energy density, yes. They even have weight / energy density advantage. But Lithium batteries can't be recycled. Saying "We are almost there" and "The future looks bright about it" is "moving fast and breaking things" again

"Green Li-ion Marks the Opening of its First Commercial-Scale Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling Plant in Oklahoma"

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240618645137/en/Gre...

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#19

Post by duffpkg »

Lifepo4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries for the home are pretty cheap as of today. Power storage for residential use in a 48v metal rackable linkable system with battery management system (BMS) is $89/kwh shipped/duty paid from reputable chinese suppliers CATL/Seplos etc. You have to wait for sea shipping, add $30/kwh if you want to buy it in the US today.

From the same suppliers sodium batteries are currently $130/kwh and about 26% less efficient in the same form factor. I look forward to this changing.

Due to rising power costs I moved one of my homes completely to solar and battery (lifepo4) and haven't had any problems. I can't imagine ever going back to the power company. Panels have gotten to the point of being ridiculously cheap. I have a lot of space. I purchased pallets of used panels for more or less the cost of transportation ($34 per panel 270w). They produce about 85% of their nominal rating.

I mention this because other comments mention costs that are much much higher.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#20

Post by tux3 »

icapybara wrote: post #12

I'd rather hear a projection from an engineer/scientist/operations person in the industry. This kinda reads like it's written by an armchair expert who thinks about batteries a lot, but doesn't have much to do with building that future being described. Sometimes the technical details matter and projected scaling trends aren't an inevitability.

It does seem to be written by someone who's very far above the ground — even managing to throw the blockchain in there at the end.

But the point they're making is reasonable. Just because the author isn't deeply technical doesn't mean they can't fit an exponential and extrapolate correctly.

Exponential growth always has to stop somewhere, but that's not in and of itself a reason to think this year is the year that it will. The napkin math about sodium and battery cost is at least reasonable, it's worth considering seriously rather than handwaving the author away as not an engineer.

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