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Collapse of the Fern Hollow Bridge Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania January 28, 2022
Highway Investigation Report HIR-24-02 released: February 21, 2024
PDF (136 pages): https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/...
Let's say it would collapse with 100% certainty randomly in the next three years, and you're in the danger area for 2 minutes, with a 20% chance of fatality (in fact, nobody died). That's still around a one in 4 million chance any given trip kills you, about the same as 30 miles of driving for the average American driver.
Most people would accept that level of risk. Perhaps not to save a couple of minutes on the journey, but if everyone was redirected to another route at rush hour, it might cost each commuter 10-20 minutes.
A handful of newsworthy bridge collapses per decade across the US doesn't seem so bad. Instead of negligence, perhaps that indicates an appropriate level of maintenance and risk tolerance, and an appropriate human price to add to the 500,000 other road deaths over the same period.
I just spent the last 4 years living in a series of countries that Americans would call ‘3rd world’. Places where proper funding of infrastructure, let alone inspections are so far below US metrics of adequate, they’d legitimately scare you. Bridges and overpasses that exist until they break and the people die. People call out to God for justice! But all that infra is then rebuilt the same way if it’s rebuilt / when…
I just spent the last 4 years living in a series of countries that Americans would call ‘3rd world’. Places where proper funding of infrastructure, let alone inspections are so far below US metrics of adequate, they’d legitimately scare you. Bridges and overpasses that exist until they break and the people die. People call out to God for justice! But all that infra is then rebuilt the same way if it’s rebuilt / when…
Why not compare to country where bridges dont fall at all?
If you knew all this, would you have avoided driving over the bridge? Would you have wanted the local government to close it indefinitely awaiting repairs? Let's say it would collapse with 100% certainty randomly in the next three years, and you're in the danger area for 2 minutes, with a 20% chance of fatality (in fact, nobody died). That's still around a one in 4 million chance any given trip kills you, about the s…
I wouldn't and I definitely wouldn't if I had other people in the car.
For those interested in the official NTSB report: Collapse of the Fern Hollow Bridge Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania January 28, 2022 Highway Investigation Report HIR-24-02 released: February 21, 2024 PDF (136 pages): https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/...
Same stuff for the Genoa, Italy bridge (Ponte Morandi). Everyone running on that would feel vibrations and "repairs" were just lipstick on a ugly face, until it finally collapsed, with 43 dead. Surprisingly, or not so, no one was found guilty, not even the inspectors that didn't report the ongoing damages, just because "it would be too costly to rebuild it, and profits of the highway company (1) in charge of it would…
If you knew all this, would you have avoided driving over the bridge? Would you have wanted the local government to close it indefinitely awaiting repairs? Let's say it would collapse with 100% certainty randomly in the next three years, and you're in the danger area for 2 minutes, with a 20% chance of fatality (in fact, nobody died). That's still around a one in 4 million chance any given trip kills you, about the s…
Also I don't think it's possible for your risk calculation to be done preemptively. We don't know the final breaking point of a piece of steel until we break it. All the calculations and modelling of the bridge will have been done with error margins and because of that we don't have any choice but to over-engineer things so we always stay outside of the worse-case margin for error. Given all that, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the risk of a bridge collapse to be a lot lower than the average risk we take on the road.
Same stuff for the Genoa, Italy bridge (Ponte Morandi). Everyone running on that would feel vibrations and "repairs" were just lipstick on a ugly face, until it finally collapsed, with 43 dead. Surprisingly, or not so, no one was found guilty, not even the inspectors that didn't report the ongoing damages, just because "it would be too costly to rebuild it, and profits of the highway company (1) in charge of it would…
Yet Italy spent years trying to put Adrian Newey in jail for building an f1 car involved in a fatal crash.
If you knew all this, would you have avoided driving over the bridge? Would you have wanted the local government to close it indefinitely awaiting repairs? Let's say it would collapse with 100% certainty randomly in the next three years, and you're in the danger area for 2 minutes, with a 20% chance of fatality (in fact, nobody died). That's still around a one in 4 million chance any given trip kills you, about the s…
How does that 1:4M probability change when you commute over the bridge twice a day? Humans are notorious for being bad gauging risk, and we very often make the mistake that past success means lower risk of future failure, which for a deteriorating bridge is exactly the opposite of what's going to happen.
In my opinion bridges shouldn't collapse, like ever. Annual inspections for years prior pointed to a severely deteriorating structure, even after the temporary cable stays were put in place. The tweet with a picture of a completely detached member a couple of years before the collapse makes this even more egregious.
This is a textbook example of where bureaucracy prevails over common sense. Heads should roll. Thankfully nobody died, but the lack of maintenance and upkeep resulted in a total failure, wasting lots of taxpayer money to replace.