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The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 (2019)

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Re: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 (2019)

#11

Post by bee_rider »

idiotsecant wrote: post #5
pineaux wrote: post #2

So basically, housing is the best investment vehicle based on all the numbers.

I wonder if this is still true once population growth reaches zero or negative. It seems like the baked in assumption of housing is that someone else is going to need it more tomorrow than you do today. I think this is an experiment the U.S. will begin running in earnest in the near future.

Most developed countries will probably run the experiment before us, as long as we can keep the country appealing enough to keep attracting immigrants.

Re: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 (2019)

#12

Post by rybosworld »

betaby wrote: post #10
idiotsecant wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if this is still true once population growth reaches zero or negative. It seems like the baked in assumption of housing is that someone else is going to need it more tomorrow than you do today. I think this is an experiment the U.S. will begin running in earnest in the near future.

That if won't happen anytime soon neither for the Earth in general nor USA in particular. Media often loves to move goals from population growth to agin g population to fertility rate, etc. All those while connected do not negate the fact that population is growing, and growing fast. That 'once population growth reaches zero or negative' is very theoretical and UN is constantly underestimating population growth. So n…

The population growth rate has consistently declined for 50+ years. It's around 0.8% from a peak of 2.2% in the 60's.

There's no reason to think this trend will reverse.

Re: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 (2019)

#14

Post by monero-xmr »

idiotsecant wrote: post #5
pineaux wrote: post #2

So basically, housing is the best investment vehicle based on all the numbers.

I wonder if this is still true once population growth reaches zero or negative. It seems like the baked in assumption of housing is that someone else is going to need it more tomorrow than you do today. I think this is an experiment the U.S. will begin running in earnest in the near future.

Buy housing in hyper desirable areas that rarely become more dense. Everyone always loves the beach, whether there are 1% fewer humans next year or not.

Re: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 (2019)

#15

Post by toomuchtodo »

superb_dev wrote: post #9

How can an entire economy have a growth rate? Is it not measuring how much "new money" was put into the system?

Demand increases due to population growth. Population goes down, growth goes down (broadly speaking, some caveats and nuance as always depending on some goods or services).

Edit: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/21582440177360...

Re: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 (2019)

#16

Post by bombcar »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #15
superb_dev wrote: post #9

How can an entire economy have a growth rate? Is it not measuring how much "new money" was put into the system?

Demand increases due to population growth. Population goes down, growth goes down (broadly speaking, some caveats and nuance as always depending on some goods or services). Edit: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/21582440177360...

Or demand increases due to some major new factor (which has happened a few times in recent history) that basically enables new energy extraction, or new resource extraction.

But over very long periods of time, it does seem to mostly be connected to population.

Re: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 (2019)

#17

Post by bombcar »

pineaux wrote: post #2

So basically, housing is the best investment vehicle based on all the numbers.

Housing is only a true investment vehicle if you count all the costs.

Even bare land has to be maintained somewhat. You can't just subtract purchase price from sale price and call it done.

Re: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 (2019)

#18

Post by _yb2s »

I don't understand how housing can increase in cost in a stable steady manner, as a fraction of household income over long periods of time like more than 100 years. It seems to defy logic, so it makes me suspect how it is being calculated when people claim that housing costs have gone up by massive amounts.

Since only a small increase would price a large number of people out of the market- it seems logical that housing can't really increase in cost/value over long time spans, but must track the overall economy almost exactly.

Re: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 (2019)

#19

Post by [deleted] »

bombcar wrote: post #16
toomuchtodo wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand increases due to population growth. Population goes down, growth goes down (broadly speaking, some caveats and nuance as always depending on some goods or services). Edit: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/21582440177360...

Or demand increases due to some major new factor (which has happened a few times in recent history) that basically enables new energy extraction, or new resource extraction. But over very long periods of time, it does seem to mostly be connected to population.

[deleted]

Re: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 (2019)

#20

Post by bombcar »

idiotsecant wrote: post #5
pineaux wrote: post #2

So basically, housing is the best investment vehicle based on all the numbers.

I wonder if this is still true once population growth reaches zero or negative. It seems like the baked in assumption of housing is that someone else is going to need it more tomorrow than you do today. I think this is an experiment the U.S. will begin running in earnest in the near future.

It has happened, and recently, multiple times on local scales.

"House go up" may be generally true in the abstract, but that doesn't mean this particular house goes up.

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