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Wind power and solar photovoltaics have higher energy returns than fossil fuels

nature.com

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Re: Wind power and solar photovoltaics have higher energy returns than fossil fuels

#11
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. We all saw what happened to Germany when they pretended wind/solar was competitive with fossil fuels in the Energiewende. It was a clear step backwards. Countries utilising cheap energy have energy (and electricity) profiles that look like China, not Germany. The fact that now renewables seem to be honest-to-goodness competitive is big news. If serious people should be investing in renewables which is a huge cha…

Germany helped drive down renewables costs. Someone had to eat the beginning of the S curve. Lazy laggards are receiving the benefits of those investments previously made. https://energytransition.org/2016/01/how-germany-helped-brin... > “The Germans were not really buying power — they were buying a price decline,” Hal Harvey, a US clean energy expert.

The numbers suggest their efforts failed and what they should have done was waited for China to start manufacturing solar panels using the returns from heavy investment in fossil fuels.

But regardless; if we don't have any argument that Germany spent a lot of money on wind/solar and weren't getting power out of it then I think serious people would dispute that wind/solar had higher energy returns than coal at the time. It is pretty obvious that coal/oil/gas had better returns. But it has been a busy decade and it is much more plausible now that renewables are competitive. The explosive growth certainly suggests they are.

Re: Wind power and solar photovoltaics have higher energy returns than fossil fuels

#12
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany helped drive down renewables costs. Someone had to eat the beginning of the S curve. Lazy laggards are receiving the benefits of those investments previously made. https://energytransition.org/2016/01/how-germany-helped-brin... > “The Germans were not really buying power — they were buying a price decline,” Hal Harvey, a US clean energy expert.

The numbers suggest their efforts failed and what they should have done was waited for China to start manufacturing solar panels using the returns from heavy investment in fossil fuels. But regardless; if we don't have any argument that Germany spent a lot of money on wind/solar and weren't getting power out of it then I think serious people would dispute that wind/solar had higher energy returns than coal at the tim…

> The explosive growth certainly suggests

Also the LCOE:

https://www.lazard.com/media/2ozoovyg/lazards-lcoeplus-april...

They haven't put out a report for this year, but it appears they didn't for 2022 either.

Re: Wind power and solar photovoltaics have higher energy returns than fossil fuels

#13
This was well recognized during the energy crisis of the early 1970's.

It took until 1982 but eventually it looked like alternatives to fossil fuel were going to be here to stay.

There wasn't very wide recognition of climate upset, which even now is treated as more of a future boogeyman.

The research was a "little" more urgent since the ongoing financial devastation from having all those dollars diverted to places like Saudi Arabia was continuing to undercut the momentum of nationwide prosperity completely. In real time.

Then one day the price of oil dropped precipitously enough to cause a world-wide "oil recession". Too bad for the oilmen. The rest of the world could breathe a sigh of relief. After years of inflation it was the only thing that ever came down in price, but it was a major one for people across the board. Dead cat bounced for about 5 years but alternative energy was still kicking. Then oil bottomed sufficiently to insure another 20 years bad luck for the oil business. But to them it was completely worth it because it put a stake in the heart of solar and wind.

Higher energy returns is in terms of investment dollars. There will always be a price for crude oil below which wind and solar have lower returns. Just like it was before.

The question is, can OPEC actually reduce the price below that point any more, and sustain it for the amount of time necessary to halt alternative momentum this time?

Seems to me some OPEC types have badly mortgaged their oil dollars to a greater extent than the original sheikhs used to do, so there may not be that much dry powder any more.

The recent agreement to cut back production specifically to drive prices up may be for immediate financial reasons. OTOH once immediate relief has occurred, maybe the floor will be dropped and those who borrowed for alternative purposes will be held underwater long enough to where they can't breathe any more either.

Re: Wind power and solar photovoltaics have higher energy returns than fossil fuels

#14
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany helped drive down renewables costs. Someone had to eat the beginning of the S curve. Lazy laggards are receiving the benefits of those investments previously made. https://energytransition.org/2016/01/how-germany-helped-brin... > “The Germans were not really buying power — they were buying a price decline,” Hal Harvey, a US clean energy expert.

The numbers suggest their efforts failed and what they should have done was waited for China to start manufacturing solar panels using the returns from heavy investment in fossil fuels. But regardless; if we don't have any argument that Germany spent a lot of money on wind/solar and weren't getting power out of it then I think serious people would dispute that wind/solar had higher energy returns than coal at the tim…

Current geopolitical events suggest that not only was reducing European reliance on fossil fuels sourced from the Middle East and Russia a good idea, but that they were not nearly aggressive enough in doing so. IIRC, gas heating still receives government subsidies in Germany that heat pumps do not (and have for more than a decade)

The transition away from oil will take a long, long time, and natural gas will be an essential component in renewable strategies for some time to come. But Europe needs to figure out how to reduce that consumption to not much more than what can be provided domestically and via trade with the US for geopolitical reasons.

Any cost comparison that doesn't factor in geopolitical concerns is incomplete.

Re: Wind power and solar photovoltaics have higher energy returns than fossil fuels

#15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a bridge in manhattan to sell to you if you believe this obvious propaganda. How can you people be so gullible?

Mark my words, in 20 years all of us will be lamenting those energy policies that will have brought us to third-world style poverty, while frantically learning mandarim to have a chance to migrate to China. And the really fun part about it, is that we won't even have money to mitigate the effects of climate change, because we literally chased windmills instead of being realistic and pragmatic and investing on sound a…

Your words have already gone down in history.

For more than 20 years Americans have been coping with results of the Nixon and Reagan policies, and their ilk, which effectively brought all Americans except the most well-heeled to a level of third-world poverty, relative to the prosperity that was bound to unfold otherwise.

Remember what it was like when Nixon resigned in disgrace, and instantly you could never find someone who ever admitted to voting for him a second time? Not just for years, but for the rest of his life. And he was re-elected. That's how disgraceful it was to the overwhelming millions of voting World War II veterans and people who vote like them, to have such a dishonest person get elected as president. Disregard the lessons taught by WWII veterans at your peril.

If only more Americans could have retained that degree of righteousness, and it could have blossomed instead of withered.

Anyway at the time WWII veterans were still a major voting force but nobody would even talk about Nixon any more. Everybody knew he was complete selfish scum by then and nobody tried to deny it. But these are patriotic Americans who were not going to lose respect for the office of the President. After a number of years and a couple other presidents, eventually people could finally come up with one thing Nixon did that was not considered the act of a crooked politician. What did Nixon do that was good so he wouldn't have to go down in history as a complete failure? "Nixon opened up China." "Nixon opened up China." That's all anybody said when the subject came up, which was quite rarely. That presidency was so compromised that all energy was focused on leaving it behind.

Like everyone else it seemed like it was not too bad to explore relations with China at the time. At least it didn't seem completely evil. A little freedom of communication and trade with China might be OK. What could go wrong? With people like Reagan around no communists were going to get a leg up, so there should be nothing to fear.

In hindsight we were dummies. If Nixon could have been kept from going to China, the US would be 20 years ahead by now.

At least Nixon wasn't a whining loser like he could have been, and wasn't so low-class he didn't know enough to leave graciously when hundreds of millions of Americas didn't want him around any more. Since it was so embarrassing already anyway.

>wall street folks and the usual hustlers behind this, they will have already relocated to greener pastures leaving us to pay the bill.

Now that already happened way before the 1970's.

not my downvote btw

Re: Wind power and solar photovoltaics have higher energy returns than fossil fuels

#16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mark my words, in 20 years all of us will be lamenting those energy policies that will have brought us to third-world style poverty, while frantically learning mandarim to have a chance to migrate to China. And the really fun part about it, is that we won't even have money to mitigate the effects of climate change, because we literally chased windmills instead of being realistic and pragmatic and investing on sound a…

Your words have already gone down in history. For more than 20 years Americans have been coping with results of the Nixon and Reagan policies, and their ilk, which effectively brought all Americans except the most well-heeled to a level of third-world poverty, relative to the prosperity that was bound to unfold otherwise. Remember what it was like when Nixon resigned in disgrace, and instantly you could never find so…

> What did Nixon do that was good so he wouldn't have to go down in history as a complete failure?

Government agency graphic design sensibilities, and the EPA.

But the list doesn't get much longer than that.

Re: Wind power and solar photovoltaics have higher energy returns than fossil fuels

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mark my words, in 20 years all of us will be lamenting those energy policies that will have brought us to third-world style poverty, while frantically learning mandarim to have a chance to migrate to China. And the really fun part about it, is that we won't even have money to mitigate the effects of climate change, because we literally chased windmills instead of being realistic and pragmatic and investing on sound a…

Your words have already gone down in history. For more than 20 years Americans have been coping with results of the Nixon and Reagan policies, and their ilk, which effectively brought all Americans except the most well-heeled to a level of third-world poverty, relative to the prosperity that was bound to unfold otherwise. Remember what it was like when Nixon resigned in disgrace, and instantly you could never find so…

> If only more Americans could have retained that degree of righteousness, and it could have blossomed instead of withered.

If only a news organization wasn't created with the express intention of bringing that about.

Re: Wind power and solar photovoltaics have higher energy returns than fossil fuels

#18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a bridge in manhattan to sell to you if you believe this obvious propaganda. How can you people be so gullible?

Mark my words, in 20 years all of us will be lamenting those energy policies that will have brought us to third-world style poverty, while frantically learning mandarim to have a chance to migrate to China. And the really fun part about it, is that we won't even have money to mitigate the effects of climate change, because we literally chased windmills instead of being realistic and pragmatic and investing on sound a…

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-long-will-glo...

TLDR: we have nuclear fuel for 200 years at current rate of consumption.

If we replace everything with nuclear or we build small less efficient nuclear plants, it will last maybe 50 years. What then?

Re: Wind power and solar photovoltaics have higher energy returns than fossil fuels

#20
One interesting part of this, since the EROI stuff is heavily associated with peak oil doomers as well as anti-renewable cranks, is that the EROI of fossil fuels is slightly increasing by this measure.

This is because the harder to get fossil fuels are being burned in more efficient engines, resulting in more useful work being done for a given energy input to extract them.

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