The Political Causes of the College Enrollment Crisis

The current generation(s) of graduating undergrads are getting utterly fucked. Especially the ones that took out loans. Because of the job market, they'll just sit there and accrue interest

It's crazy how much influence interest rates have on the broader economy and social mobility. If the fed keeps rates higher for longer I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a cliff in college enrollment back to where it was in decades previously. And if that happens we could see a similar cliff in political affiliation. Time will tell

First, wtf is a "Republican high school student" ? How does a teenager "identifying" as a Republican or Democrat mean much beyond either trying to please or rebel against their parents? Wouldn't this type of analysis make much more sense in terms of parents? Like perhaps Republican parents are more likely to steer their kids away from college due to this perceived trend of "hyper-liberalism" ?

Second, it's gone from merely sloppy to outright fallacious to throw around "Republican" and "conservative" as if they're synonyms, when in 2024 they're completely opposed. With the rise of Trumpism (populist reaction, to use Moldbug's own word), the Democratic party has basically been left as the home of conservatives - strong foreign policy, fiscal responsibility (pulling up from ZIRP), the rule of law, belief in societal institutions, and so on.

Tying these two points together points the way towards useful synthesis - bureaucracy heavy college campuses have actually gotten hyper-conservative (witness the harsh responses against protests of Israel's genocide - still not much "progress" there!). But it's conservatism based on the values of "intersectional" identity politics that have become part of the zeitgeist over the past several decades. The "culture war" already ended some time in the oughties, with the religious fundamentalists losing. Or did you buy into that nonsense that Fortune 500 companies are advertising with rainbow flags to "push an agenda", rather than merely tying their brands to the majority's values?

I'm quite sure there are still actual liberals on college campuses - seeing through the "intersectional" pantheon, but not falling for the comforting destructive reactionary nonsense either - looking forward to actual true progress past both. But as always, the revolution will not be televised and all that. The only question is whether us oldies will listen or if they'll have to begrudgingly wait for our deaths, too.

I'm not sure it's what you intended, but this sounds like you might be saying that a perfectly acceptable future would be to have an elite class of educated, left-leaning liberals who go to college, while their conservative, right-leaning peers go to trade schools. Not all that different than today, just codified, concretized into an actual, literal class system. This feels dystopian to me, and probably would have a bad outcome.

While I definitely agree that going into a trade is a great option, which should be (and, I think, sort of is) destigmatized, the problem I see is that not many plumbers or electricians get elected to congress, or the presidency, or head the gigantic tech and finance companies that rule the world. I want diverse viewpoints among my ruling elite, if I have to have them (which I do). Even if it means I don't agree with all them, and they don't agree with me, I think it's probably better in the long run. Just trying to avoid handing my grandchildren an eloi/morlock future.

>>> Immigration programs like H1B also sucked the market out of low end education required jobs so employers never had to reach out to entice rural kids to getting degrees and joining them.

You realize that to get an H1B you need a bachelors or better, and it's a process. Rural jobs and H1B have dam near zero intersection.

The single biggest boost I can give to my child is that I am on track to be able to fund them through college with zero debt.