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How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

fortune.com

11–20 of 415 posts

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#11
post #2

Waymo is currently under investigation for multiple incidents, not all of which it had previously disclosed to the NHTSA [0]. The recent light pole incident also doesn't help [1]. If they are doing 50k rides a day, then they would appear to have a remarkable safety record. It will be interesting to see if these investigations lead to a repeat of the Cruise debacle or if this will become the price of doing business. […

Waymo has notably escaped any investigation of the "Prius vs Camry" crash induced during unsafe testing done in pursuit of a demo https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/22/did-uber-steal...

> The car went onto a freeway, where it travelled past an on-ramp. According to people with knowledge of events that day, the Prius accidentally boxed in another vehicle, a Camry. A human driver could easily have handled the situation by slowing down and letting the Camry merge into traffic, but Google’s software wasn’t prepared for this scenario. The cars continued speeding down the freeway side by side. The Camry’s driver jerked his car onto the right shoulder. Then, apparently trying to avoid a guardrail, he veered to the left; the Camry pinwheeled across the freeway and into the median. Levandowski, who was acting as the safety driver, swerved hard to avoid colliding with the Camry, causing Taylor to injure his spine so severely that he eventually required multiple surgeries.

> Levandowski and Taylor didn’t know how badly damaged the Camry was. They didn’t go back to check on the other driver or to see if anyone else had been hurt. Neither they nor other Google executives made inquiries with the authorities. The police were not informed that a self-driving algorithm had contributed to the accident.

> According to former Google executives, in Project Chauffeur’s early years there were more than a dozen accidents, at least three of which were serious. One of Google’s first test cars, nicknamed kitt, was rear-ended by a pickup truck after it braked suddenly, because it couldn’t distinguish between a yellow and a red traffic light. Two of the Google employees who were in the car later sought medical treatment.

It was a long time ago, but Larry Page was well aware of it, and imagine if that incident received fair coverage and investigation.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#12
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're the present here in SF, driving every day and more safely than the humans do. And as a human driver, I can testify that these streets are not particularly easy to drive on.

They are here in the Phoenix area too and I have not seen and issues with them. However, we are blessed by sunny weather 99% of the time. I think the biggest challenges will be having them drive in adverse weather conditions present throughout the rest of the country, such as blizzards, hail, torrential rain, dense fog.

Not just sunny weather, but straight streets laid out in a N/S and E/W pattern, very little grade, and consistent numbering\naming across cities.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#13
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're the present here in SF, driving every day and more safely than the humans do. And as a human driver, I can testify that these streets are not particularly easy to drive on.

They are here in the Phoenix area too and I have not seen and issues with them. However, we are blessed by sunny weather 99% of the time. I think the biggest challenges will be having them drive in adverse weather conditions present throughout the rest of the country, such as blizzards, hail, torrential rain, dense fog.

We have abundant fog and seasonal rain in SF, but not much hail or snow.

That's why they've done winter testing in Tahoe (since 2017) and Buffalo NY (last winter).

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#14
post #8
post #2

Waymo is currently under investigation for multiple incidents, not all of which it had previously disclosed to the NHTSA [0]. The recent light pole incident also doesn't help [1]. If they are doing 50k rides a day, then they would appear to have a remarkable safety record. It will be interesting to see if these investigations lead to a repeat of the Cruise debacle or if this will become the price of doing business. […

Anecdata, but watching the Waymo cars compared to Cruise (preban) was night and day. Before Cruise was banned in SF, I would often see them violate traffic laws and fail to navigate basic intersections. Waymo isn't perfect, but its better than Cruise and the average SF driver, which is good enough for me.

Anecdata 2, I bike through SF almost daily, and much prefer a Waymo driving near me as opposed to your average SF driver.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#15
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're the present here in SF, driving every day and more safely than the humans do. And as a human driver, I can testify that these streets are not particularly easy to drive on.

They are here in the Phoenix area too and I have not seen and issues with them. However, we are blessed by sunny weather 99% of the time. I think the biggest challenges will be having them drive in adverse weather conditions present throughout the rest of the country, such as blizzards, hail, torrential rain, dense fog.

Waymo is likely already better than a upper-quartile meat module under those conditions. https://x.com/Boenau/status/1795495310170685915

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#16
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're the present here in SF, driving every day and more safely than the humans do. And as a human driver, I can testify that these streets are not particularly easy to drive on.

They are here in the Phoenix area too and I have not seen and issues with them. However, we are blessed by sunny weather 99% of the time. I think the biggest challenges will be having them drive in adverse weather conditions present throughout the rest of the country, such as blizzards, hail, torrential rain, dense fog.

I used one when it was somehow raining in Phoenix and it worked fine apart from being a bit confused by a puddle when stopping.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#17
post #6

Robotaxis are "a real business"? Maybe in the future, but not yet. From the article: > But even the most bullish believers in autonomous transportation acknowledge the tech still has a ways to go before it’s reliable enough for widespread deployment on U.S. roads.

FWIW: I feel safer driving and walking by to one than I do the average human driver.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#18
post #3

I just left a version of this in another thread—I live in Phoenix and now take Waymo regularly, and it seems like we're close to a world in which most people take self-driving cars most of the time, crash rates plummet, and these kinds of articles come to resemble articles from 1910 about horse-related problems. Humans suck at driving: https://jakeseliger.com/2019/12/16/maybe-cars-are-just-reall... Waymos avoid many…

In the same vein, I don't ride uber often but when I do I often find that drivers leave their windows closed and car's air circulation turned off completely. When I ask for "a bit of airflow" they apparently hear it as "I'm too hot", so they turn AC to maximum power. I'm not sure whether this reflects their own preferences, what they think customers want, or if they are just completely oblivious.

I have never had trouble cracking open the window on my own. Do you not try?

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#19
post #7
post #6

Robotaxis are "a real business"? Maybe in the future, but not yet. From the article: > But even the most bullish believers in autonomous transportation acknowledge the tech still has a ways to go before it’s reliable enough for widespread deployment on U.S. roads.

They're the present here in SF, driving every day and more safely than the humans do. And as a human driver, I can testify that these streets are not particularly easy to drive on.

Yes, they're actually awesome. 'Waymo' has replaced 'Uber' in my vocabulary, e.g. "Let's just Waymo there".

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#20
post #2

Waymo is currently under investigation for multiple incidents, not all of which it had previously disclosed to the NHTSA [0]. The recent light pole incident also doesn't help [1]. If they are doing 50k rides a day, then they would appear to have a remarkable safety record. It will be interesting to see if these investigations lead to a repeat of the Cruise debacle or if this will become the price of doing business. […

Waymo has notably escaped any investigation of the "Prius vs Camry" crash induced during unsafe testing done in pursuit of a demo https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/22/did-uber-steal... > The car went onto a freeway, where it travelled past an on-ramp. According to people with knowledge of events that day, the Prius accidentally boxed in another vehicle, a Camry. A human driver could easily have handled the s…

I am having trouble imagining this scenario in a way that makes Waymo look as bad as you imply. It sounds like the human-driven vehicle if it was "boxed in" on an on-ramp needed to slow and merge, rather than racing to pass on the right, running off the road, and causing a spectacular single-vehicle wreck. The way it's described in that paragraph seems to be ironclad proof of the need to promptly relieve humans of driving tasks.
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