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Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

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11–20 of 77 posts

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#11
As a software developer, I'm anxious about the AI gold rush being a bubble that's about to pop.

I've been unemployed ever since the Great 15% Layoffs, about 14 months ago. I finally landed a job (well, once the paperwork is done) related to bringing up a new processor. But it's a DL accelerator.

I really hope there's not another employment bloodbath if/when the AI bubble bursts, since my savings are pretty much depleted.

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#13
The same panic is happening on the adoption side where managers want to be seen keeping up with the latest tech. They are spending money of haphazardly executed OpenAI API integrations without understanding how they work Every business and gov org I speak to these days is working on an "AI policy".

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s good. As the big companies have proven themselves inefficient capital allocators, there will be more space for upstarts.

Will there, though? Or will it just to be those big companies with important, entrenched products making them worse and worse and due to some combination of network effects, entrenchedness in industry, and financial/technical lock-in people will be unable to choose a competitor? History seems to point to the latter.

You should relook at history.

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s good. As the big companies have proven themselves inefficient capital allocators, there will be more space for upstarts.

Will there, though? Or will it just to be those big companies with important, entrenched products making them worse and worse and due to some combination of network effects, entrenchedness in industry, and financial/technical lock-in people will be unable to choose a competitor? History seems to point to the latter.

The supply of used AI chips could be flooded in a year or two if companies that can’t really use them are buying them today.

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s good. As the big companies have proven themselves inefficient capital allocators, there will be more space for upstarts.

Will there, though? Or will it just to be those big companies with important, entrenched products making them worse and worse and due to some combination of network effects, entrenchedness in industry, and financial/technical lock-in people will be unable to choose a competitor? History seems to point to the latter.

There will be some upstarts that win, but they will be acquired and integrated by the big firms anyway.

So, one way or the other, we'll end up with some variation of your scenario.

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#17

This is not only Google. Most of the big and medium tech companies CEOs have been about as gullible and delusional as the crypto-bros of 2k18. And now, as all the FOMO-driven AI integrations are starting to bear fruits, it seems that we're going to enter a chapter of unprecedented bullshit and disappointment in the history of personal computers.

You're reminding me of the takes in the original dot-com bubble — which was indeed a bubble, don't get me wrong — all the nay-sayers 24 years ago asking why anyone would want to shop or bank online, missing that it was easy, fast, cheap, convenient, and sufficiently good.

Of course, just a lot of companies went under when that bubble collapsed, and there's no guarantee that any of the current AI players will make the right move this time either.

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#18
> Some of you may remember Google's much-hyped AI voice "Duplex," which was supposed to automate all those annoying phone calls and call centers. That was in 2018, six years ago. Since then, we've seen how it's turned out

Reasonably successfully?

Call screen is easily one of the best features of my phone. Call hold navigation is also really useful. It calling restaurants and the like is not something I commonly use but it works and I've used it sometimes.

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#19

As a software developer, I'm anxious about the AI gold rush being a bubble that's about to pop. I've been unemployed ever since the Great 15% Layoffs, about 14 months ago. I finally landed a job (well, once the paperwork is done) related to bringing up a new processor. But it's a DL accelerator. I really hope there's not another employment bloodbath if/when the AI bubble bursts, since my savings are pretty much deple…

If the DL Accelerator has a decent Fed Sales muscle and/or you are working on features that are truly critical for the business (as in $$$ making features) you will be fine.

A lot of the 15% bloodbath was also because of severe overhiring during Covid's 0% interest rate times, so AOPs needed to be reworked for a high interest rate period.

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will there, though? Or will it just to be those big companies with important, entrenched products making them worse and worse and due to some combination of network effects, entrenchedness in industry, and financial/technical lock-in people will be unable to choose a competitor? History seems to point to the latter.

You should relook at history.

Microsoft (Windows, Office, XBox), Facebook, Adobe (Creative Suite, every PDF application), Google (Gmail, web office, YouTube)...
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